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Topic: Questions

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Cincydawg

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Questions
« on: January 04, 2022, 01:50:30 PM »
Has anyone seen data on how often the coin toss winner prevails in the  game?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Questions
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2022, 01:57:13 PM »
Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?

The Bobs did this many years back.
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longhorn320

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Re: Questions
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2022, 03:05:31 PM »
In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time

not sure how far back that study went
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Mdot21

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Re: Questions
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2022, 03:26:47 PM »
I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's? 

Michigan's Junior Colson got torched twice in man coverage by James Cook. Even Georgia LB Quay Walker got torched in man coverage for a deep ball by Michigan RB Donovan Edwards. These are terrible match-ups for the defense. If the RB motions out-wide to receiver then defense should have an audible ready to automatically change the defensive call.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Questions
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2022, 03:29:48 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 04, 2022, 03:26:47 PM
I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's?
Yeah, I thought that criticism was unwarranted, LBs have to cover RBs fairly often, and TEs as well, unless you go nickel, and even then.

Who else should cover a wheel route?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Questions
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2022, 03:34:40 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 04, 2022, 03:05:31 PM
In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time

not sure how far back that study went
Was that the same Fox News article I googled? 

They said it was something like 52.1% that season, and 52.6% since the stat had been kept. Unfortunately that was written during the 2011 season and it only went back to 2008...

I'd argue that's still too small of a sample size, even though it's a few hundred games. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Questions
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2022, 04:10:50 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2022, 01:57:13 PM
Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?

The Bobs did this many years back.
The old Stassen site appears to be defunct so I'm losing my ability to look things up.  
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Mdot21

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Re: Questions
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2022, 04:48:49 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2022, 03:29:48 PM
Yeah, I thought that criticism was unwarranted, LBs have to cover RBs fairly often, and TEs as well, unless you go nickel, and even then.

Who else should cover a wheel route?
not really talking wheel routes, talking about when the RB's motion all the way outside to play wide receiver. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: Questions
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2022, 08:55:19 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on January 04, 2022, 03:26:47 PM
I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's?

Michigan's Junior Colson got torched twice in man coverage by James Cook. Even Georgia LB Quay Walker got torched in man coverage for a deep ball by Michigan RB Donovan Edwards. These are terrible match-ups for the defense. If the RB motions out-wide to receiver then defense should have an audible ready to automatically change the defensive call.
1. Play zone, live with a receiver on a linebacker or safety. 
2. Play more DBs, live with a smaller defense
3. Get faster linebackers. 

As you said, two of those were just streak balls on the outside. Not much to do when an RB can run that. The otherwise a bad combo of calls. You have a backer rushing and then peeling, which is rough if the RB gets vertical. Extra rough if the safety is also picked off. 
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LittlePig

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Re: Questions
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2022, 08:23:59 AM »
I know lately more teams are playing a 4-2-5 coverage instead of a traditional 4-3. 

sure you can say thats just nickel coverage, but in this case,  the 5th DB is more of a hybrid LB/safety that can do everything.  Fast enough to cover a WR when the team is passing,  tough enough to make a tackle when the other team is running. 

Of course you could extend that to ridiculous lengths by essentially playing a prevent defense with 4 DL and 7 DB's.
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LittlePig

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Re: Questions
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2022, 08:58:39 AM »
Iowa is one example of a team that uses the 4-2-5 scheme a lot.  Dane Belton played the 5th DB position in the 4-2-5.  Iowa used to get burned a lot by spread teams until they finally switched to the 4-2-5 in late 2018.  It took a little fine-tunig but from 2018 to 2021 the Iowa defense went almost 3 years without giving up more than 30 points in a game.  The switch to the 4-2-5 is one of the reasons Iowa has led the country in interceptions in the last 5 years.

With all that said, that does not help much when your team is matched up against elite athletes that are bigger and faster than your players.  If Iowa had to play teams like OSU, Georgia and Bama every week,  they would probably give up 50 points a game.  Schemes can only do so much.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Questions
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2022, 10:04:31 AM »
The hybrid safety/LB is a prized commodity for obvious reasons, but they likely could not cover a fast RB very well or much of the time unless they are elite.  I understand the point of when a RB splits out and lines up as a WR, he basically could be covered "normally" by a DB.  And then he might block on a running play or sweep.

Everything has a counter.
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rolltidefan

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Re: Questions
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2022, 10:10:17 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on January 04, 2022, 03:05:31 PM
In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time

not sure how far back that study went
i thought that was overtime coin toss winner. or was it beginning of game coin toss?
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rolltidefan

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Re: Questions
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2022, 10:19:23 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on January 04, 2022, 01:57:13 PM
Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?

The Bobs did this many years back.
really wish the bobs and drew could have worked something out for this site. i know drew did everything he could to provide the resources for the bobs to move his data over. not sure what happened, but the bobs seemed to have lost interest in bothering with it. 
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