CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on January 04, 2022, 01:50:30 PM
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Has anyone seen data on how often the coin toss winner prevails in the game?
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Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?
The Bobs did this many years back.
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In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time
not sure how far back that study went
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I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's?
Michigan's Junior Colson got torched twice in man coverage by James Cook. Even Georgia LB Quay Walker got torched in man coverage for a deep ball by Michigan RB Donovan Edwards. These are terrible match-ups for the defense. If the RB motions out-wide to receiver then defense should have an audible ready to automatically change the defensive call.
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I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's?
Yeah, I thought that criticism was unwarranted, LBs have to cover RBs fairly often, and TEs as well, unless you go nickel, and even then.
Who else should cover a wheel route?
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In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time
not sure how far back that study went
Was that the same Fox News article I googled?
They said it was something like 52.1% that season, and 52.6% since the stat had been kept. Unfortunately that was written during the 2011 season and it only went back to 2008...
I'd argue that's still too small of a sample size, even though it's a few hundred games.
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Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?
The Bobs did this many years back.
The old Stassen site appears to be defunct so I'm losing my ability to look things up.
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Yeah, I thought that criticism was unwarranted, LBs have to cover RBs fairly often, and TEs as well, unless you go nickel, and even then.
Who else should cover a wheel route?
not really talking wheel routes, talking about when the RB's motion all the way outside to play wide receiver.
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I have a question....how the hell do you design a defense so you never have LB's in man coverage with no safety help vs athletic pass catching RB's?
Michigan's Junior Colson got torched twice in man coverage by James Cook. Even Georgia LB Quay Walker got torched in man coverage for a deep ball by Michigan RB Donovan Edwards. These are terrible match-ups for the defense. If the RB motions out-wide to receiver then defense should have an audible ready to automatically change the defensive call.
1. Play zone, live with a receiver on a linebacker or safety.
2. Play more DBs, live with a smaller defense
3. Get faster linebackers.
As you said, two of those were just streak balls on the outside. Not much to do when an RB can run that. The otherwise a bad combo of calls. You have a backer rushing and then peeling, which is rough if the RB gets vertical. Extra rough if the safety is also picked off.
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I know lately more teams are playing a 4-2-5 coverage instead of a traditional 4-3.
sure you can say thats just nickel coverage, but in this case, the 5th DB is more of a hybrid LB/safety that can do everything. Fast enough to cover a WR when the team is passing, tough enough to make a tackle when the other team is running.
Of course you could extend that to ridiculous lengths by essentially playing a prevent defense with 4 DL and 7 DB's.
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Iowa is one example of a team that uses the 4-2-5 scheme a lot. Dane Belton played the 5th DB position in the 4-2-5. Iowa used to get burned a lot by spread teams until they finally switched to the 4-2-5 in late 2018. It took a little fine-tunig but from 2018 to 2021 the Iowa defense went almost 3 years without giving up more than 30 points in a game. The switch to the 4-2-5 is one of the reasons Iowa has led the country in interceptions in the last 5 years.
With all that said, that does not help much when your team is matched up against elite athletes that are bigger and faster than your players. If Iowa had to play teams like OSU, Georgia and Bama every week, they would probably give up 50 points a game. Schemes can only do so much.
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The hybrid safety/LB is a prized commodity for obvious reasons, but they likely could not cover a fast RB very well or much of the time unless they are elite. I understand the point of when a RB splits out and lines up as a WR, he basically could be covered "normally" by a DB. And then he might block on a running play or sweep.
Everything has a counter.
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In the NFL the coin toss winner won the game 52% of the time
not sure how far back that study went
i thought that was overtime coin toss winner. or was it beginning of game coin toss?
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Has anyone seen recent data on home versus away margins in games in conference play only?
The Bobs did this many years back.
really wish the bobs and drew could have worked something out for this site. i know drew did everything he could to provide the resources for the bobs to move his data over. not sure what happened, but the bobs seemed to have lost interest in bothering with it.
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i thought that was overtime coin toss winner. or was it beginning of game coin toss?
Pregame:
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/52-percent-of-nfl-teams-to-win-coin-toss-win-game
Through week 10 of the 2011 season, it was 52.1%. From 2008 to week 10 of 2011, it was 52.6%.
And while the Saints are 7-3 and lead the NFC South despite coming up short every single time on what should be a 50-50 proposition, coin-toss statistics - yes, they do exist - show that the NFL team that won the pregame flip wound up winning 52.1 percent of the time through Week 10 this season, according to STATS LLC.
That's about the same as the 52.6 percent that STATS shows for coin-toss ''victories'' matching up with game victories since the start of the 2008 season, when the NFL changed the rules to allow the team that wins the toss to defer its choice until the second half.
Each season (at the time) was 32 teams, so 16 games per week, and 16 games per team per season, so 256 games in the regular season [I don't know if they include pre- or post-season games].
So that means that between the start of 2008 and week 10 of 2011, there should have been almost a 1000 game sample size (928, minus a few for 2011 bye weeks).
That would be roughly 464 expected wins, and 488 actual wins, or 24 additional wins over 3 1/2 seasons.
I'm not sure if that's a high enough deviation from the expected 50% to be statistically significant...
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I take it the figure is a bit over 50-50. My Dawgs seem more likely to win when they win the toss, but I am sure my memory is hazy on it and they are more like this against similar teams.
I'm still pondering the RB splitting out and being covered by a LB issue. I presume this usually means going empty, so you'd have maybe 3 WRs to the left and the RB split out right and perhaps a TE on the line able to run if not covered up. So, five potential receivers, you'd better be in nickel I think.
The Michigan coverage on that play was actually pretty tight as I recall. The pass was dropped in the bucket.