Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Not a wagering type…but seems to me Purdue getting 19 is easy money. 

Their losses were not horrible sans UW winning 30-13 other 2 were by 7 to Minny and 14 to ND.I guess not consistent when knocking off 2 Top 5 teams

I have to say that this game has me concerned. Purdue can move the ball up and down the field, something that the Bucks defense has shown to have problems with. The question is can they limit them to field goals instead of TD's.

Defensively, the Boilermakers are playing pretty well. With the problems we have seen from the Bucks in the red zone scoring of late, again, it will come down to can the Bucks put it in the endzone more often than settling for FG's. Also, can the Bucks get the running game going this week. Last week, Day seemed to abandon the running game early which I believe was a mistake. But he gets paid good money to coach this team, so I will defer to his judgement. 

the Boiler defense seems much better than pretty good

4 INTS vs Iowa and 4 vs Nebraska

Those two QBs hadn't tossed many INTs to that point

Martinez has a history of turnovers but only had 3 picks coming into the Purdue game

https://cfbstats.com/2021/team/559/interception/gamelog.html

Purdue has 11 INT on the season. 8 of those came in those two games.

• 4 games with 0 INT
• 3 games with 1 INT each
• 2 games with 4 INT each

I don't know why those two games were such outliers. Perhaps there was something in the scheme. Perhaps those QBs were more apt to get rattled by Karlaftis and pressure. Perhaps it was just random f'ing chance. 

Purdue is tied for 39th in the country in total defensive turnovers forced/gained. 


Purdue's defense is no slouch. 16th in scoring defense, 26th in defensive yards/game. Both significantly better than their turnovers, which again more than half (8 of 14) came in two games.

Defensively, the Boilermakers are playing pretty well. With the problems we have seen from the Bucks in the red zone scoring of late, again, it will come down to can the Bucks put it in the endzone more often than settling for FG's. Also, can the Bucks get the running game going this week. Last week, Day seemed to abandon the running game early which I believe was a mistake. But he gets paid good money to coach this team, so I will defer to his judgement.

This!
I think that RZ offense/defense will be key.  Both offenses look good enough that they should get RZ chances but the team that gets TD's will beat the team that settles for FG's.  

Not that different from the big 2018 upset.  I missed that game due to being at an Eagles (with Vince Gill due to the passing of Glenn Fry) concert in Cleveland that evening.  After the concert I checked my phone and saw that the Buckeyes had lost.  Next I saw that Haskins had almost 500 yards passing and I immediately sent a text to my brother:
"How the hell do you have 500 yards passing and only score 20 points?????"

Ohio State's offense was incredibly inefficient that night.  They amassed 546 yards of total offense and only scored 20 points.  That has to be some kind of record.  Oddly, it wasn't even a turnover issue.  The Buckeyes did lose the turnover battle but it was only 1-0 and the turnover occurred after the game had been decided.  Here are Ohio State's drives from that night:

• 3-and-out while tied 0-0, Punt.  
• 8 plays, 33 yards to the PU 42 while tied 0-0, Punt.  
• 6 plays, 48 yards to the PU 6 while down 7-0, FG.  
• 9 plays, 32 yards to the tOSU 39 while down 7-3, Punt.  
• 16 plays, 83 yards to the PU 15 while down 7-3, missed FG.  
• 1 play, 6 yards while down 14-3, halftime.  
• 10 plays, 69 yards to the PU 6 while down 14-3, FG.  
• 11 plays, 73 yards to the PU 2 while down 21-6, downs.  
• 3-and-out while down 21-6. 
• 3-and-out while down 21-6.   
• 8 plays, 71 yards while down 28-6, TD.  
• 9 plays, 70 yards while down 35-13, TD.  
• 6 plays, 24 yards while down 42-20, INT.  
• 8 plays, 38 yards while down 49-20, game.  

The six bolded drives all got into the RZ but only resulted in 20 points and 14 of those 20 points came after Ohio State had dug such a big hole that there wasn't much chance to get out of it anyway.  

Purdue's offense was VASTLY more efficient in that they were generally touchdown or bust:

• 3-and-out while tied 0-0, Punt.  
• 3-and-out while tied 0-0, Punt.  
• 15 plays, 98 yards while tied 0-0, TD.  
• 3-and-out while up 7-3, Punt.  
• 8 plays, 80 yards while up 7-3, TD.  
• 10 plays, 73 yards while up 14-6, TD.  
• 3-and-out while up 21-6 Punt.  
• 6 plays, 34 yards while up 21-6, Punt.  
• 8 plays, 76 yards while up 21-6, TD.  
• 5 plays, 75 yards while up 28-13, TD.  
• 3 plays, 46 yards while up 35-20, TD.  

Drive #8 that I have bolded was Purdue's ONLY drive that wasn't either a TD or a 3-and-out.  Purdue simply didn't "waste" any yards on unsuccessful drives.  

In the first half Ohio State's defense wasn't great but they did ok in holding PU to three three-and-outs and two TD's.  The problem was that the Offense was horrible having three punts, a FG, and a missed FG (ignoring the end-of-half drive).  

In the second half Ohio State's offense wasn't great but they did ok in managing four long drives out of six possessions while the game was still at least somewhat in doubt.  Those four long drives resulted in 17 points and it would probably have been 20 if Ohio State hadn't been in such a deep hole.  The problem was the the Defense was horrible giving up four TD's while forcing only two punts.  

if you love WR's- this is the game to watch. Ohio State has a literal boatload of elite WR's - and Purdue just might have the best WR in the country in Bell.

if you love WR's- this is the game to watch. Ohio State has a literal boatload of elite WR's - and Purdue just might have the best WR in the country in Bell.

Bell=BEAST