| If your view was College Football Playoff or bust as a Michigan State fan, I don't think last week changed anything. The situation remains the same, you beat Ohio State, go to the CCG, and win, you are in. Otherwise you are out. The difference is in the wiggle room for any consolation prize. You get to 10-2, likely playing in a New Years Six bowl. 9-3, you fall into the crapshoot, where you have no idea, and you end up playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, because you haven't been there in a while. Maryland has enough playmakers on offense you can't fall asleep against them. You would think getting their first loss would refocus Michigan State, but everyone saw that upset coming, and the Spartans said all the right thing. The issue now seems to be injuries consolidating at a couple positions, positions that Michigan State could not afford. Jalen Nailor in a cast got most of the attention, because as the #2 receiver, he's a known name. The bigger problem is the Spartans now appear to be down the entire left side of their offensive line, and both starting cornerbacks, almost certainly already the two weakest positions on the team. For good measure the kicker is also out. Maryland obviously has no George Karlaftis (few do) to exploit the reserve linemen, but the Terps can absolutely pick on the backup cornerbacks, as Aidan O'Connell did, for 536 yards on 74% completions. Purdue leads the Big Ten in pass attempts per game, and percentage of plays that are passes. Maryland is second in both categories. If Taulia Tagovailoa can't have a 300+ yard game here, I don't think he'll do it again this year. If he doesn't do that, Maryland doesn't have a chance. Even if he does, it might not be enough. Purdue's defense played pretty well, and Michigan State still scored 29 points. Maryland has the Big Ten's second worst pass defense, second worst run defense, worst total defense, and worst scoring defense. The most concerning thing is how susceptible they are to the big play, and that has been Michigan State's bread and butter. They are surrendering 15 yards per completion, 3rd worst in the Power 5. If Tagovailoa can go off like O'Connell did last week, and which he has done a couple times recently, Maryland could win a shootout, but Purdue did also get just enough stops, which I don't think the Terps can do. Just in the past two weeks, Tagovailoa threw for 419 yards on 65% completions and beat Indiana at home by 3; and 371 yards on 72% and lost by 17 at Penn State. Winning will require something else working, either the run game or the defense, neither of which has thus far. |
