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Topic: preseason polls coming out...

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CWSooner

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #42 on: August 06, 2019, 10:10:42 AM »
Some teams in the West need to get better.  And they can, without having to play tOSU, M, and PSU every year.

The door is semi-open for the Huskers.
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FearlessF

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #43 on: August 06, 2019, 10:38:36 AM »
a Big 12 contender would benefit from this

a west champ knocking off the East champ in the B1G

semi-open the door for the Sooners or the Horns to get in the playoff
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utee94

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #44 on: August 06, 2019, 10:46:07 AM »
a Big 12 contender would benefit from this

a west champ knocking off the East champ in the B1G

semi-open the door for the Sooners or the Horns to get in the playoff

Not sure what you mean here?  The Sooners have had no problems getting into the playoff.  If Texas ever gets back to the 0-loss or 1-loss world, the Horns will get in, too.  Other B12 teams likely need help here and there, but that's true of non-helmets from all the other conferences as well.  Except maybe the SEC, their helmet-halo is strong.

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #45 on: August 06, 2019, 01:12:32 PM »

  • Utah 0-0
  • Auburn 0-0
  • Wisconsin 0-0
  • UCF 0-0
  • Iowa 0-0
  • Michigan State 0-0
  • Washington State 0-0
  • Syracuse 0-0
  • Stanford 0-0
  • Iowa State 0-0
  • Northwestern 0-0
This is the 15-25 ranking in the coaches poll.  I imagine most of us would reorder this a bit, and probably add some 26-30 teams to replace these, but why bother?


For one thing, it's one vote out of 60 or so.  For another, it doesn't matter is Nebraska should be 22nd instead of Syracuse.  Meh.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #46 on: August 06, 2019, 01:18:58 PM »
Not sure what you mean here?  The Sooners have had no problems getting into the playoff.  If Texas ever gets back to the 0-loss or 1-loss world, the Horns will get in, too.  Other B12 teams likely need help here and there, but that's true of non-helmets from all the other conferences as well.  Except maybe the SEC, their helmet-halo is strong.
In the CFP era:
Undefeated Conference Champions:
  • 2014 ACC Champion FSU got in
  • 2015 ACC Champion Clemson got in
  • 2016 SEC Champion Bama got in
  • 2018 SEC Champion Bama got in
  • 2018 ACC Champion Clemson got in

1-loss Conference Champions:
  • 2014 SEC Champion Bama got in
  • 2014 PAC Champion Oregon got in
  • 2014 B1G Champion Ohio State got in
  • 2015 SEC Champion Bama got in
  • 2015 B1G Champion Michigan State got in
  • 2015 B12 Champion Oklahoma got in
  • 2016 ACC Champion Clemson got in
  • 2016 PAC Champion Washington got in
  • 2017 ACC Champion Clemson got in
  • 2017 B12 Champion Oklahoma got in
  • 2017 SEC Champion Georgia got in
  • 2018 B12 Champion Oklahoma got in
  • 2014 B12 co-champ Baylor did NOT get in
  • 2014 B12 co-champ TCU did NOT get in
  • 2018 B1G Champion Ohio State did NOT get in

2-loss Conference Champions:
  • 2015 PAC Champion Stanford did NOT get in
  • 2016 B1G Champion Penn State did NOT get in
  • 2016 B12 Champion Oklahoma did NOT get in
  • 2017 B1G Champion Ohio State did NOT get in
  • 2017 PAC Champion USC did NOT get in

Overall so far:
There have been five undefeated P5 Champions and all five got in without any real question largely because there have never been more than two in any one year.  

Twelve of fifteen one-loss P5 Champions have gotten in.  The three exceptions are the two co-champions from the B12 in 2014 and that is no longer an issue due to the B12 adopting a CG and 2018 Ohio State.  The 2018 Buckeyes just caught a bad break in that there were two undefeated P5 Champions and an undefeated Notre Dame ahead of them in 2018.  That same record would likely have gotten the Buckeyes in to the CFP in any year other than 2018.  

The 2-loss P5 Champions are 0-5 so far at getting in to the CFP.  I am confident that it will happen someday but it is not likely to happen if there are four undefeated or 1-loss P5 Champions ahead of them.  


Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2019, 01:25:24 PM »
Yeah, Notre Dame is the "wild card" if they are 12-0.  Most years we seem to have one undefeated P5 champ and 3 one loss P5 champs, give or take, and it works its way out, though a one loss nonchamp can supplant someone of course.

I personally would rather have more emphasis on being a conference champ.

FearlessF

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2019, 02:18:56 PM »
yes, Notre Dame could have caused the Sooners a spot

the Big 12 has been left out 2 of 5 seasons, the Sooners have been in the other 3 seasons, but have been the #4 seed twice

There were a few that thought the Sooner's lack of defense might leave them outside last season (OrangeAfro)

I'm not really knocking the Big 12, the same could happen to the PAC, the B1G or the ACC if Clemson slips

I was merely replying to a Sooner (Big 12)

there are 4 spots, 5 conferences and ND

if the Big Ten East champ gets upset, that could open the door for a team that otherwise might not get in over a 0 or 1 loss Big Ten champ from the East.
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utee94

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2019, 02:27:12 PM »
yes, Notre Dame could have caused the Sooners a spot

the Big 12 has been left out 2 of 5 seasons, the Sooners have been in the other 3 seasons, but have been the #4 seed twice

There were a few that thought the Sooner's lack of defense might leave them outside last season (OrangeAfro)

I'm not really knocking the Big 12, the same could happen to the PAC, the B1G or the ACC if Clemson slips

I was merely replying to a Sooner (Big 12)

there are 4 spots, 5 conferences and ND

if the Big Ten East champ gets upset, that could open the door for a team that otherwise might not get in over a 0 or 1 loss Big Ten champ from the East.

I still don't understand the B1G-specific nature of your point.  If Texas or OU gets upset, then that could also open the door for a team that otherwise might not get in over a 0-loss or 1-loss Texas or OU. 

You're effectively saying, if a B1G non-helmet upsets a B1G helmet (from the East) then that leaves the door open.  The same is true for ALL conferences.  Except maybe the SEC.

FearlessF

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #50 on: August 06, 2019, 02:28:59 PM »
Ed Zachery

as I said, I was replying to the Sooner

no need to come to his defense

of course I did throw the Horns in there :)
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #51 on: August 06, 2019, 03:22:45 PM »
I still don't understand the B1G-specific nature of your point.  If Texas or OU gets upset, then that could also open the door for a team that otherwise might not get in over a 0-loss or 1-loss Texas or OU.

You're effectively saying, if a B1G non-helmet upsets a B1G helmet (from the East) then that leaves the door open.  The same is true for ALL conferences.  Except maybe the SEC.
I still disagree with what you are implying here.  As I've said when we've had this argument before, I have two points:
  • I think you are wrong, there is no helmet bias in the CFP selections, and
  • Even if there is a helmet bias in the CFP selections, there is no evidence of such a bias to date.  Unless and until there is evidence of such bias, it should not be assumed to exist.  

As noted in my earlier post, so far there have been five 2-loss P5 Champions in the CFP era and none have made the CFP.  Four of the five (specifically PSU, OU, tOSU, and USC) are MAJOR helmets.  That didn't get them in.  

Also as noted above, 1-loss P5 Champions have made the CFP on 12 of 15 chances.  The 12 that did make it include non-helmets Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington while the three that did not include helmet Ohio State.  

I fail to see any evidence of helmet bias.  Baylor and TCU missed out for four main reasons:
  • That year there were a total of six undefeated (FSU) or 1-loss (Bama, Oregon, tOSU, Baylor, TCU) P5 Champions.  By definition two of them had to get left out, and
  • Baylor and TCU were the only two of the six not to defeat a high-end opponent in a CG, and
  • Baylor and TCU had the weakest SoS of the 1-loss P5 Champs, and
  • Ultimately it came down to tOSU/TCU/Baylor and Ohio State slaughtered a highly ranked Wisconsin team on the day before the committee's decision.  

Then, of course, there were two occasions when a 1-loss non-Champion got in but both of those were effectively Helmet vs Helmet competitions so there is still no evidence of helmet-bias:

In 2016 1-loss non-Champion Ohio State got in.  The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Penn State.  My first observation is that while PSU's helmet might not be as large as Ohio State's, they are still a helmet team.  Secondly, PSU missed because they had two losses and their losses were terrible.  They lost to a 5-loss Pitt team and they got slaughtered by Michigan.  

In 2017 1-loss non-Champion Bama got in.  The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Ohio State.  My first observation is that while Bama's helmet is humongous, Ohio State is one of the very few teams that is at least close to their equal.  This wasn't about a helmet getting in over a non-helmet it was an inter-helmet dispute.  Secondly, tOSU missed because they had two losses, one was horrible and the other wasn't all that "good".  They lost to a very good Oklahoma team that did make the CFP but the loss was at home and by 15 points and they lost badly to a 5-loss Iowa team.  

There is no reason to assume or even allege helmet-bias in the absence of evidence for this bias and there is NO evidence of helmet bias in the committee's selections thus far.  


MrNubbz

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2019, 03:29:49 PM »
  • I think you are wrong,


You really need to come out of your shell and express yourself :043:
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FearlessF

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2019, 04:10:56 PM »
and I thought I was effective at stirring up Texans  ;)
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utee94

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #54 on: August 06, 2019, 04:26:27 PM »
I still disagree with what you are implying here.  As I've said when we've had this argument before, I have two points:
  • I think you are wrong, there is no helmet bias in the CFP selections, and
  • Even if there is a helmet bias in the CFP selections, there is no evidence of such a bias to date.  Unless and until there is evidence of such bias, it should not be assumed to exist. 

As noted in my earlier post, so far there have been five 2-loss P5 Champions in the CFP era and none have made the CFP.  Four of the five (specifically PSU, OU, tOSU, and USC) are MAJOR helmets.  That didn't get them in. 

Also as noted above, 1-loss P5 Champions have made the CFP on 12 of 15 chances.  The 12 that did make it include non-helmets Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington while the three that did not include helmet Ohio State. 

I fail to see any evidence of helmet bias.  Baylor and TCU missed out for four main reasons:
  • That year there were a total of six undefeated (FSU) or 1-loss (Bama, Oregon, tOSU, Baylor, TCU) P5 Champions.  By definition two of them had to get left out, and
  • Baylor and TCU were the only two of the six not to defeat a high-end opponent in a CG, and
  • Baylor and TCU had the weakest SoS of the 1-loss P5 Champs, and
  • Ultimately it came down to tOSU/TCU/Baylor and Ohio State slaughtered a highly ranked Wisconsin team on the day before the committee's decision. 

Then, of course, there were two occasions when a 1-loss non-Champion got in but both of those were effectively Helmet vs Helmet competitions so there is still no evidence of helmet-bias:

In 2016 1-loss non-Champion Ohio State got in.  The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Penn State.  My first observation is that while PSU's helmet might not be as large as Ohio State's, they are still a helmet team.  Secondly, PSU missed because they had two losses and their losses were terrible.  They lost to a 5-loss Pitt team and they got slaughtered by Michigan. 

In 2017 1-loss non-Champion Bama got in.  The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Ohio State.  My first observation is that while Bama's helmet is humongous, Ohio State is one of the very few teams that is at least close to their equal.  This wasn't about a helmet getting in over a non-helmet it was an inter-helmet dispute.  Secondly, tOSU missed because they had two losses, one was horrible and the other wasn't all that "good".  They lost to a very good Oklahoma team that did make the CFP but the loss was at home and by 15 points and they lost badly to a 5-loss Iowa team. 

There is no reason to assume or even allege helmet-bias in the absence of evidence for this bias and there is NO evidence of helmet bias in the committee's selections thus far. 



blah blah blah blah

I think you're wrong, too.  

That was easy.

utee94

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #55 on: August 06, 2019, 04:27:01 PM »
and I thought I was effective at stirring up Texans  ;)

You are, he's not.  His posts are so long and boring and wrong, they're easy to ignore. :)

 

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