I still don't understand the B1G-specific nature of your point. If Texas or OU gets upset, then that could also open the door for a team that otherwise might not get in over a 0-loss or 1-loss Texas or OU.
You're effectively saying, if a B1G non-helmet upsets a B1G helmet (from the East) then that leaves the door open. The same is true for ALL conferences. Except maybe the SEC.
I still disagree with what you are implying here. As I've said when we've had this argument before, I have two points:
- I think you are wrong, there is no helmet bias in the CFP selections, and
- Even if there is a helmet bias in the CFP selections, there is no evidence of such a bias to date. Unless and until there is evidence of such bias, it should not be assumed to exist.
As noted in my earlier post, so far there have been five 2-loss P5 Champions in the CFP era and none have made the CFP. Four of the five (specifically PSU, OU, tOSU, and USC) are MAJOR helmets. That didn't get them in.
Also as noted above, 1-loss P5 Champions have made the CFP on 12 of 15 chances. The 12 that did make it include non-helmets Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington while the three that did not include helmet Ohio State.
I fail to see any evidence of helmet bias. Baylor and TCU missed out for four main reasons:
- That year there were a total of six undefeated (FSU) or 1-loss (Bama, Oregon, tOSU, Baylor, TCU) P5 Champions. By definition two of them had to get left out, and
- Baylor and TCU were the only two of the six not to defeat a high-end opponent in a CG, and
- Baylor and TCU had the weakest SoS of the 1-loss P5 Champs, and
- Ultimately it came down to tOSU/TCU/Baylor and Ohio State slaughtered a highly ranked Wisconsin team on the day before the committee's decision.
Then, of course, there were two occasions when a 1-loss non-Champion got in but both of those were effectively Helmet vs Helmet competitions so there is still no evidence of helmet-bias:
In 2016 1-loss non-Champion Ohio State got in. The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Penn State. My first observation is that while PSU's helmet might not be as large as Ohio State's, they are still a helmet team. Secondly, PSU missed because they had two losses and their losses were terrible. They lost to a 5-loss Pitt team and they got slaughtered by Michigan.
In 2017 1-loss non-Champion Bama got in. The first team out was 2-loss B1G Champion Ohio State. My first observation is that while Bama's helmet is humongous, Ohio State is one of the very few teams that is at least close to their equal. This wasn't about a helmet getting in over a non-helmet it was an inter-helmet dispute. Secondly, tOSU missed because they had two losses, one was horrible and the other wasn't all that "good". They lost to a very good Oklahoma team that did make the CFP but the loss was at home and by 15 points and they lost badly to a 5-loss Iowa team.
There is no reason to assume or even allege helmet-bias in the absence of evidence for this bias and there is NO evidence of helmet bias in the committee's selections thus far.
