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Topic: preseason polls coming out...

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2019, 12:41:49 AM »
CFB51.com 130 team rankings:

  • Clemson
  • HALF THE SEC
  • Ohio State


There, fixed it.  Jeez.
Florida is too high across the board - replacing 4 OL starters rarely works out well.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2019, 07:27:29 AM »
One, maybe two, of the top 12 will end up 8-4 or worse.  Three to 6 of the top 20 will end up 7-5 or worse.  By the time the committee starts paying attention, a lot of this will be evidence, and their rankings won't show any lingering bias from early polls.  If you beat up a #5 team early that is 3-3 by the time the committee starts looking, it simply won't matter to them whether they started ranked 5th or not.

Back when polls were part of the BCS, it matter some of course because the polls won't shift around as quickly as they might.

bayareabadger

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2019, 07:53:31 AM »
There, fixed it.  Jeez.
Florida is too high across the board - replacing 4 OL starters rarely works out well.
So are you higher on ND? Texas? An A&M team that has a good chance to finish 7-5? Washington and Oregon?

That 6-15 area is just a weird morass. 

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2019, 08:00:40 AM »
It is FAR easier to point to teams ranked too high than teams that should be ranked higher than them.

That 6-25 range is always a morass of guessing, who won the bowl game last year, where folks finished last year, etc.

Take last year's final coaches' poll and compare to this one, just a bit of shuffling.  It's fun to talk about, that's it.

Does anybody think Bama or Clemson are likely to have more than one regular season loss?  I doubt it.  Might it happen? Sure, one time in ten maybe.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2019, 10:14:20 AM »
So are you higher on ND? Texas? An A&M team that has a good chance to finish 7-5? Washington and Oregon?

That 6-15 area is just a weird morass.
I don't know, I haven't looked closely at the other teams.  What I do know is that I'd rather be replacing skill position players rather than 4/5 of an OL.


I tend to be hard on my Gators, since UM left.  


Florida is an interesting job...a HC has all the resources he needs to dominate - not just have a good record, but to smoke people left and right, yet at the same time it still takes "the right guy" to win big.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2019, 06:19:49 AM »
I was musing about weaknesses or unknowns with some of the top teams:

1.  Clemson - none known
2.  Alabama - none known
3.  Georgia - replacing every wide receiver from last year and a good bit on defense
4.  Oklahoma - defense
5.  Ohio State - new QB with minimal PT, none in system
6.  LSU - the HC?
7.  Michigan - the Hump
8.  Florida - replacing 4 of 5 on OL
9. Notre Dame - I don't know
10.  Texas - I don't know

All of them have a decent to excellent QB returning except Ohio State.  All of them have recruited well.  Notre Dame plays AT #3 and #7, plus some other worthies.  Florida plays #3 and #6.  UGA plays #8 and #9.  

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2019, 06:26:49 AM »
This is the final poll from last season, notice some apparently overlap (duh):


[th]Rank[/th]
[th]Record[/th]
[th]PTS[/th]
[th]1st[/th]
[th]Prev[/th]
[th]Chg[/th]
[th]Hi/Lo[/th]
1Clemson15-0160064211/4
2Alabama14-1153601-11/2
3Ohio State13-114370522/10
4Oklahoma12-21415044/11
5Notre Dame12-1131603-23/11
6Florida10-3119201046/NR
7Louisiana State10-3118601144/24
8Georgia11-3114706-22/8
9Texas10-4109301457/NR
10Washington State11-2100701337/NR
11Kentucky10-3945015411/NR
12Central Florida12-187607-57/23
13Washington10-480709-46/19
14Michigan10-378008-64/22
15Syracuse10-3720017212/NR
16Texas A&M9-4625020416/NR
17Penn State9-4581012-58/20
18Fresno State12-2497021317/NR
19Northwestern9-5375022319/NR
20Army11-2333025520/NR
21Utah State11-2252023213/NR
22West Virginia8-4235016-66/22
23Cincinnati11-2186028520/NR
24Boise State10-316502417/NR
25Mississippi State0-0107018-714/NR
No. 19 Utah.
Iowa 102; Utah 75; Appalachian State 56; Stanford 38; Iowa State 29; Auburn 27; Oregon 18; Missouri 14; UAB 9; Georgia Southern 7; Virginia 5; Troy 2; NC State 2; Wisconsin 2; Duke 1.


Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2019, 07:35:55 AM »
How much effort do you suppose a sportswriter applies to his ranking each week?

My guess is not much at all.  Maybe the Newbie just invited spends 15 minutes on it, but my GUESS is the regular writers do it in 5 minutes whilst watching ESPN or checking scores.  I don't know why I'd spend more time on it myself, take last week's poll and drop whoever lost and push up the rest.

Temp430

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2019, 08:01:04 AM »
Fifteen games for the top two teams.  That seems like too many games for one year.
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847badgerfan

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2019, 08:17:12 AM »

With that said, anyone want to start a new strength of schedule thread?
We don't really know much about this either. Not until the season is over.
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MrNubbz

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2019, 08:39:31 AM »
I'd be shocked if the Buckeyes were in the top 10 at season's end.Now Fields may be all that but I'm thinking Urbz knew when to skedaddle.The corner backs and I suspect the LB's will be suspect at best.Perhaps the O-Line also,Unless the other programs attrition was worse I don't think they will win the East
“Always carry a flask of whiskey in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake.” W.C. Fields

MrNubbz

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #25 on: August 05, 2019, 08:47:30 AM »
Badgers have a tough schedule,cross over games vs M/MSU/ @tOSU.Also at the 'Skers.If they get past the 1st 6 games at 5-1 they have a punchers chance
“Always carry a flask of whiskey in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake.” W.C. Fields

bayareabadger

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #26 on: August 05, 2019, 09:27:21 AM »
How much effort do you suppose a sportswriter applies to his ranking each week?

My guess is not much at all.  Maybe the Newbie just invited spends 15 minutes on it, but my GUESS is the regular writers do it in 5 minutes whilst watching ESPN or checking scores.  I don't know why I'd spend more time on it myself, take last week's poll and drop whoever lost and push up the rest.
Probably more than that, just because you have to corral all the scores, wrap your head around them, figure out the just outside the last top-25 group. I’m guessing the average newbie spends more time, but some veterans do and some do not.

The issue will always be the product is engineered to incite. Someone will be too high (regardless of who should move up) or two low, regardless of who should move down. Or they’ll have not dropped enough or jumped too much. Tis the nature of it. And then comes the question of, if you’re approach is consistent, is it the right approach. And one ballot gets washed away in the “wisdom of the crowd.”

anyway, it won’t satisfy and is constructed poorly.

Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #27 on: August 05, 2019, 09:58:45 AM »
When we've done polls around here, I have found that I can construct one in five minutes.  I'm not sure spending 15 would make it any better, it's more guesswork than anything else from 15-25.  Evidence for this is how the polls pretty much look the same.

 

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