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Topic: Powder Rankings Week 5

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MrNubbz

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2017, 02:56:31 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 02, 2017, 11:22:19 AM
Last week in parenthesis


4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security

This Barrett & Meyer aren't surprising anyone.Once in a tight spot vs a staunch defense he can't ratchet it up like the great ones.Just the opposite IMO the program has propped him up.URBAN will have rotate in either Burrow/Haskins to stretch the field or it'll end like last season
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MaximumSam

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2017, 07:01:58 AM »
S&P+ rankings

1. Ohio State (2)
2. Wisconsin (4)
3. Penn State (8)
4. Michigan (9)
5. Michigan State (32)
6. Nebraska (38)
7. Minnesota (44)
8. Iowa (45)
9. Indiana (46)
10. Northwestern (47)
11. Maryland (58)
12. Purdue (72)
13. Rutgers (93)
14. Illinois (97)

These are pretty interesting, and surprising to me.  He uses preseason projections as an aid through 6 games.  Without the preseason projections, OSU still stays at 2, Wiscy drops to 8 and UM drops to 15.  MSU jumps to 22, and Purdue jumps to 31.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 07:28:16 AM by MaximumSam »
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TyphonInc

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2017, 07:29:13 AM »
@medinabuckeye1 or anyone else, are there going to be charts and graphs like we had at on the old boards?
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grillrat

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2017, 10:02:17 AM »
We'll hopefully know a lot more about Purdue after this weekend.  Right now, they seem to have the largest variance being ranked anything from 5th to 12th.  :017:
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2017, 10:42:58 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on October 03, 2017, 07:29:13 AM
@medinabuckeye1 or anyone else, are there going to be charts and graphs like we had at on the old boards?
I haven't done it on this board largely because there simply aren't enough votes to make it worthwhile.  Right now on this one we have:
  • MaximumSam
  • MichiFan87
  • BrutusBuckeye
  • LittlePig
  • Big Beef Tacosupreme
  • Temp430
  • 847badgerfan
  • fezzador
  • ELA
On the old board you needed charts to sort it all out because we typically had 30+ voters.  I just don't see a need for charts and graphs to sort out <10 votes.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2017, 11:11:48 AM »
  • Penn State - I'm not confident.  Back-to-back vsM and @tOSU starting next weekend will tell us all we need to know.  
  • Wisconsin - Again, not confident and I'm not sure how much we will learn from upcoming games @UNL, vPU, vUMD, @ILL, and @IU.  
  • Michigan - Still not confident.  Defense and ST look scary but that offense is just ugly.  
  • Ohio State - With a modest passing thread they would easily be #1.  
  • Maryland - Surprising win in Minneapolis considering all the personnel losses.  
  • Michigan State - I consider 3/4 and 5/6 to be toss-ups and believe that the gap between 3/4 and 5/6 is enormous.  Thus, it feels silly to rank Maryland/MSU right behind M/tOSU because I frankly think that both Maryland and MSU will get shredded this weekend.  
  • Iowa - Behind MSU due to the loss.  OTOH, I'm not dead set on that ranking because it was close and a road game for the Hawkeyes.  What sucks for the Hawkeyes is that with two losses in conference already they are practically eliminated from the B1G-W race.  
  • Minnesota - What happened?  
  • Purdue - We'll find out this weekend if the Boilermakers can get into the top half of the conference.  This game is also important for both teams' bowl chances.  
  • Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are 2-0 in the B1G and lead the B1G-W but that appears set to crash.  The good news is that they host their next two games.  The bad news is that their next two opponents beat them 23-17 and 62-3 last year.  
  • Northwestern - They played well in the loss at Wisconsin.  Can they compete with Penn State this weekend?  I doubt it.  
  • Indiana - The scheduling gods really screwed the Hoosiers.  Their first three B1G games are Ohio State (lost 49-21 at home), Penn State (lost 45-14 on the road) and Michigan (10/14 at home).  It is hard to tell how good they might be because I would expect most teams to start 0-3 against that slate.  
  • Illinois - They have a tune-up this weekend in Iowa City to get ready for the hotly anticipated pillow-fight of the year at home against Rutgers next weekend.  
  • Rutgers - They have the week off this week and they need it.  At Illinois next weekend is probably Rutgers' best chance to avoid going 0-9/1-11 this year.  

Since joining the B1G Rutgers has won only four B1G games:
  • Michigan in their second B1G game in 2014, Michigan finished 5-7.  
  • Indiana in 2014, Indiana finished 4-8.
  • Maryland in 2014, Maryland finished 7-6.
  • Indiana in 2015, Indiana finished 6-7.  
After beating Michigan in 2014 the Scarlet Knights had a bye so they spent 14 days at 1-1 all-time in B1G Conference games.  Then they lost 56-17 in Columbus and finished 3-5.  They went 1-7 in 2015 and 0-9 in 2016 and are 0-2 so far this year for a grand total of 4-23.  
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BlueRoyster711

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2017, 02:16:10 PM »
1. PENN STATE (1) - As a PSU homer is till feel comfortable with them on top.  Unlike Taco, I see improvement by every unit save the OL.  I guess JF is hell bent on getting SB the Trophy but still building for next year.  That is the only reason for the tweaks to the OL grouping/positions during th off season, as they haven't paid off yet this season.
2. WISCONSIN (2) - one of these weeks they are going to dig themselves too deep a hole.  
3. MICHIGAN (3) - bye week -
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security - They by far and away have the most talent, can and will it come together this season.
5. MARYLAND (8) - no idea what to do with them, but UCF looks really good, and nobody else has a pair of road wins nearly as good as Texas and Minnesota.  DJ has these guys believing and playing hard.  
6. MICHIGAN STATE (9) - defense is for real, particularly against the run, but the OL means they can't do enough in the trenches against the better teams
7. IOWA (6) - defense played the ultimate bend but don't break, but it wasn't enough
8. PURDUE (10) - Indiana and Minnesota looked so bad, Boiler move up 2 spots during a bye week
9. MINNESOTA (5) - lose at home to a team using a 3rd string QB making his first career start? 
10. INDIANA (7) - I think it's time to pull the plug on Lagow and play for 2018.  
11. NORTHWESTERN (11) - couldn't capitalize on first half turnovers
12. NEBRASKA (12) - at least they proved a solid gap between them and the bottom 2
13. ILLINOIS (13) - 2 and out for Lovie? I doubt he'd care .. does he even want this job or is it just paying the bills?  Would anyone wan this job?
14. RUTGERS (14) - if they want Schiano back next year, that wasn't the best display of the roster he'd be taking over.  Blah
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ELA

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2017, 04:15:28 PM »
Quote from: BlueRoyster711 on October 03, 2017, 02:16:10 PM
1. PENN STATE (1) - As a PSU homer is till feel comfortable with them on top.  Unlike Taco, I see improvement by every unit save the OL.  I guess JF is hell bent on getting SB the Trophy but still building for next year.  That is the only reason for the tweaks to the OL grouping/positions during th off season, as they haven't paid off yet this season.
2. WISCONSIN (2) - one of these weeks they are going to dig themselves too deep a hole.  
3. MICHIGAN (3) - bye week -
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security - They by far and away have the most talent, can and will it come together this season.
5. MARYLAND (8) - no idea what to do with them, but UCF looks really good, and nobody else has a pair of road wins nearly as good as Texas and Minnesota.  DJ has these guys believing and playing hard.  
6. MICHIGAN STATE (9) - defense is for real, particularly against the run, but the OL means they can't do enough in the trenches against the better teams
7. IOWA (6) - defense played the ultimate bend but don't break, but it wasn't enough
8. PURDUE (10) - Indiana and Minnesota looked so bad, Boiler move up 2 spots during a bye week
9. MINNESOTA (5) - lose at home to a team using a 3rd string QB making his first career start?
10. INDIANA (7) - I think it's time to pull the plug on Lagow and play for 2018.  
11. NORTHWESTERN (11) - couldn't capitalize on first half turnovers
12. NEBRASKA (12) - at least they proved a solid gap between them and the bottom 2
13. ILLINOIS (13) - 2 and out for Lovie? I doubt he'd care .. does he even want this job or is it just paying the bills?  Would anyone wan this job?
14. RUTGERS (14) - if they want Schiano back next year, that wasn't the best display of the roster he'd be taking over.  Blah
LOL, did you just copy mine?  including the comments?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2017, 04:30:11 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 03, 2017, 04:15:28 PM
LOL, did you just copy mine?  including the comments?
I wondered the same thing.  As I was reading it I was thinking "this sounds really familiar".  
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grillrat

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2017, 04:34:26 PM »
He just added his own comments on the end of yours.
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ELA

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2017, 04:35:48 PM »
Quote from: grillrat on October 03, 2017, 04:34:26 PM
He just added his own comments on the end of yours.
Nah, most of the comments are the same too.

I don't care, I just did a weird double take when I read it
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BlueRoyster711

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2017, 08:12:01 AM »
Yeah I did, what are you gonna do about it !  I haven’t had much time to partake this year, not even in the pick Emma etc.  I usually get about 10 min a week to glance over threads and noticed Medina comment on not having enough data.  I just took the best rankings and added a few of my own thoughts, appreciate your hard work Adam.  
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ELA

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2017, 05:10:40 PM »
Week 5 composite computer rankings (84 computers - last week in parentheses)

1. Clemson (2)
2. Alabama (1)
3. Georgia (6)
4. PENN STATE (8)
5. MICHIGAN (4)
6. Oklahoma (3)
7. TCU (10)
8. Washington (7)
9. OHIO STATE (9)
10. USC (5)
11. Miami (16)
12. WISCONSIN (11)
13. Notre Dame (13)
14. Oklahoma State (14)
15. Washington State (20)
16. Central Florida (-)
17. Auburn (23)
18. Virginia Tech (12)
19. San Diego State (19)
20. Florida (22)
21. Louisville (17)
22. Oregon (-)
23. South Florida (18)
24. Stanford (25)
25. NC State (-)

33. Maryland (52)
34. Iowa (29)
35. Michigan State (49)
38. Minnesota (24)
46. Indiana (43)
57. Purdue (54)
58. Nebraska (68)
66. Northwestern (57)
90. Illinois (69)
106. Rutgers (104)
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Powder Rankings Week 5
« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2017, 05:29:51 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 04, 2017, 05:10:40 PM
Week 5 composite computer rankings (84 computers - last week in parentheses)
4. PENN STATE (8)
5. MICHIGAN (4)
9. OHIO STATE (9)
12. WISCONSIN (11)
33. Maryland (52)
34. Iowa (29)
35. Michigan State (49)
38. Minnesota (24)
46. Indiana (43)
57. Purdue (54)
58. Nebraska (68)
66. Northwestern (57)
90. Illinois (69)
106. Rutgers (104)
What stands out to me here is the enormous gap between the top-4 and the rest of the conference.  Iowa already lost at home to Penn State.  Maryland and Michigan State get their cracks at the top-4 this weekend.  Unless something highly unexpected happens it appears that:
  • Wisconsin will have their way with the B1G-W.  
  • The B1G-E will be decided in three games:  M@PSU on 10/21, PSU@tOSU on 10/28, and tOSU@M on 11/25.  
At the present time it appears that the other six teams in the B1G-W and the other four teams in the B1G-E will not be able to compete in any meaningful way.  
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