CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on October 01, 2017, 02:42:11 PM
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1. Penn State - (Beat Indiana 45-14, next week at Northwestern) Another fine defensive performance. Another performance from the offense that was somewhat pedestrian outside of Saquon Barkley. Probably something they want to improve on, as the schedule will get tough soon.
2. Michigan (BYE, next week hosts Michigan State). Got a week to sort out their offensive problems. Whatever they do gets a trial by fire against a fired up and suddenly sound MSU team.
3. Wisconsin (Beat Northwestern 33-24, next week at Nebraska) Been shuffling them and Michigan each week. They are very similar teams with tough defenses and ok offenses. But Michigan has a better defense, so they get the nod.
4. Ohio State (Beat Rutgers 56-0, next week hosts Maryland) Another layup of a game, but winter is coming.
5. Michigan State (Beat Iowa 17-10, next week at Michigan) They've found themselves a guy with Lewerke at QB. The defense has found it's footing. It's a good old fashioned MSU team, except they have yet to find a consistent running game, which doesn't bode well going into Michigan.
6. Iowa (Lost to MSU 17-10, next week hosts Illinois) Perfectly fine Iowa performance on the road against a team a little better than they are.
7. Maryland (Beat Minnesota 31-24, next week @OSU) Did not see a bounce back performance coming for the Terps, but here they are. Get a bear of a challenge against OSU which might show whether they are a bottom half or top half type of team.
8. Purdue (BYE, next week v. Minnesota) Now we get to the portion of the schedule where we see if Purdue is a contender or pretender in the B1W.
9. Northwestern (Lost to Wisconsin 33-24, next week v. Penn State) Competed against the Badgers. Now go do it again.
10. Minnesota (lost to Maryland 31-24, next week at Purdue) Tough loss against the east, now in must win mode to stay in the conference race. Still finding their identity.
11. Indiana (Lost to PSU 45-14, next week against Charleston Southern) Well they aren't in the class of the B1G's best, so we know that.
12. Nebraska (Beat Illinois 28-6, next week v. Wisconsin). Not taking them out of the pit until they show something against a good team, but an encouraging performance. Beating Wisconsin after looking so bad is exactly the type of thing Mike Riley teams do. At least I hope, so they don't try to pull that against OSU.
13. Rutgers (Lost to OSU 56-0, next week BYE) Had some good plays and good ideas against OSU. Just not enough of them. Also no Janarian Grant is bad for them.
14. Illinois (Lost to Nebraska 28-6, next week at Iowa) Blech
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2. Michigan (BYE, next week hosts Michigan State). Got a week to sort out their offensive problems. Whatever they do gets a trial by fire against a fired up and suddenly sound MSU team.
3. Wisconsin (Beat Northwestern 33-24, next week at Nebraska) Been shuffling them and Michigan each week. They are very similar teams with tough defenses and ok offenses. But Michigan has a better defense, so they get the nod.
I'm with you there. Tough to rank those two teams. Flip a coin for #3 and #4 between M/WISC. I have Ohio State at #1 and Penn State at #2 right now.
Special teams are still part of the game as well, and this is where I think Michigan might have over Wisconsin. Michigan's kick-off guy is one of the best at booming them out of the end-zone not allowing returns. Michigan's kicker Nordin might be the best kicker in the nation and he's only a frosh. He's definitely in that conversation for sure. He's outstanding. The coverage teams have been solid, and the new punter has been leading the entire nation in hang-time I believe- so teams haven't really been able to get clean returns. Throw in the explosive frosh DPJ on punt returns- who I'd bet isn't done housing a punt or two- and that special teams unit is just really really good. My only gripe with the entire special teams unit is that Dylan Crawford- who sucks at football- is taking all of the kick return duties when those should be going to Donovan Peoples Jones.
we will find out a lot more about both teams next week. Wisconsin will have to go on the road and play Nebraska and Michigan will have it's hands full with a much improved MSU team that has always been a tough out for Michigan under Dantonio.
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This weekend's games only made this harder, instead of easier.
1. Michigan - I expect the defense to continue to dominate, and I think the bye week will really help the offense, but O'Korn needs to prove he can be consistently effective.
2. Penn State - Took advantage of Indiana's mistakes and Barkley is good, but their defense looks vulnerable.
3. Wisconsin - The offense is looking better, but the defense let up in the 4th quarter.
4. Ohio State - If they destroy Maryland, I'll move them up.
5. Purdue - Looking like the best of the rest at this point.
6. Maryland - Nice win and the QB looks serviceable. UCF might be the top non-power team (dominated Memphis yesterday), so there's no shame in that loss afterall.
7. Michigan State - They're definitely better than expected, but they caught Iowa at the right time.
8. Iowa - I should know better than to expect them to play against other teams like it does in home night games. That fumble / INT was a microcosm of the game, though.
9. Northwestern - At least they made a decent come back attempt to make it respectable, but they still only have two bad wins.
10. Indiana - Made a lot of stupid mistakes against Penn State, and their defense isn't as good as expected.
11. Minnesota - Their non-con wins aren't any good, and Maryland exposed their defense, while their offense is still inconsistent.
12. Nebraska - They beat the two worst teams in the league. Can they beat anyone left on their schedule? Admittedly, NIU and Oregon looked good last night so those aren't bad losses.
13. Illinois - I thought they might be slightly improved from last year but apparently not. In fact, I'm not even sure they'll beat...
14. Rutgers - They'll get their shot at 13th in two weeks.
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This weekend's games only made this harder, instead of easier.
1. Michigan - I expect the defense to continue to dominate, and I think the bye week will really help the offense, but O'Korn needs to prove he can be consistently effective.
2. Penn State - Took advantage of Indiana's mistakes and Barkley is good, but their defense looks vulnerable.
3. Wisconsin - The offense is looking better, but the defense let up in the 4th quarter.
4. Ohio State - If they destroy Maryland, I'll move them up.
5. Purdue - Looking like the best of the rest at this point.
6. Maryland - Nice win and the QB looks serviceable. UCF might be the top non-power team (dominated Memphis yesterday), so there's no shame in that loss afterall.
7. Michigan State - They're definitely better than expected, but they caught Iowa at the right time.
8. Iowa - I should know better than to expect them to play against other teams like it does in home night games. That fumble / INT was a microcosm of the game, though.
9. Northwestern - At least they made a decent come back attempt to make it respectable, but they still only have two bad wins.
10. Indiana - Made a lot of stupid mistakes against Penn State, and their defense isn't as good as expected.
11. Minnesota - Their non-con wins aren't any good, and Maryland exposed their defense, while their offense is still inconsistent.
12. Nebraska - They beat the two worst teams in the league. Can they beat anyone left on their schedule? Admittedly, NIU and Oregon looked good last night so those aren't bad losses.
13. Illinois - I thought they might be slightly improved from last year but apparently not. In fact, I'm not even sure they'll beat...
14. Rutgers - They'll get their shot at 13th in two weeks.
few things...
Ohio State will destroy Maryland.
Michigan isn't the best team in the conference. Not with that offense. Harbaugh is a GREAT coach. Offensive "genius" he is not. My hope is that he moves Drevno to OL coach after the season is over and goes out and hires an evil genius OC. Worked wonders for that defense when he went out and got Don Brown. Michigan's D under Durkin was pretty good in 2015- but it was nowhere near what they've been under Brown for the last year + 4 games. Having an elite co-ordinator makes a huge difference. Not sure there's a DC I'd take over Don Brown. There's a bunch of OC's I'd take over Drevno.
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1 Lions
2 Bucks
3 Badgers
4 Wolverines
5 Spartans
6 Hawkeyes
7 Terps
8 Boilers
9 Gophers
10 Hoosiers
11 Wildcats
12 Huskers
13 Knights
14 Illini
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Pretty much in line with the BTN ratings.
http://btn.com/2017/10/01/big-ten-power-rankings-maryland-msu-nebraska-rise-in-post-week-5-poll/
As I said long ago, that tilt in Happy Valley between UM and PSU will decide the East.
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1. PSU
Nice biunce back after escape at Iowa.
2. Wisc
Which is the real wisconsin?
3. OSU
Its tempting to move OSU up, but they were playing Rutgers afterall. No nred to over react.
4. Mich
5. Nobody? Ok. MSU
Nobidy really looks like the 5th best team, but you have to pick somebody.
6. MD
Hard team to read
7. Iowa
0-2 in Big Ten. Looks like another 7-5 season for Iowa. Maybe Iowa can fix their offense against ILL
8. Minn
Close loss to MD. Minn is probably right in the middle fior the Big Ten.
9. Pur
Decent team. Just not great.
10. Indy
11. NW
12. NEB
13. iLL
14. Rut
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1. Wisconsin (1)- Looking like the best team right now
2. Penn State (2)- Have some problems on the Defensive and offensive lines.
3. Ohio State (3)
4. Michigan (4)
5. Michigan State (8) - This team will beat one of the big 3 in the east.
6. Iowa (5)
7. Purdue (7)
8. Maryland (11) - I can't figure out this team.
9. Minnesota (6)
10. Northwestern (10)
11. Indiana (9)
12. Nebraska (12)
13. Illinois (13)
14. Rutgers (14)
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Decided to ignore the polls and rank on what I saw Saturday..
1. Ohio State - Deepest talent, excellent coaching, putting it together, and now with a shiny chip on their shoulder put there by Oklahoma.
2. Penn State - Leading Heisman candidate held to 56 yards rushing, team 39 by otherwise most helpful Indiana team.
3. Michigan - Michigan's offense looked much better in the first half than Wisconsin's.
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan State
6. Northwestern
7. Iowa
8. Maryland
9. Indiana
10. Minnesota
11. Purdue
12. Nebraska
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Iowa
<<Throws teams up in the air>>
8. Purdue
9. Northwestern
10. Minnesota
11. Indiana
12. Nebraska
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1) Penn State
2) Ohio State
3) Wisconsin
4) Michigan
5) Michigan State
6) Maryland
7) Iowa
8) Purdue
9) Minnesota
10) Northwestern
11) Indiana
12) Nebraska
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
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Decided to ignore the polls and rank on what I saw Saturday..
3. Michigan - Michigan's offense looked much better in the first half than Wisconsin's.
Missing Troy Fumagali was a big part of that, but they adjusted and got back on track in the 2nd. That was encouraging.
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Wisconsin / Michigan is a take your pick right now. I get the sense that TODAY Wisconsin has a slightly better offense, with Michigan having a better defense. Michigan has some nice special teams weapons, but I haven't watched enough games to rank those two against each other.
The best part about this one is it will be settled on the field. Michigan has 3 pick-ems left with Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. They also have a sneaky, tough one this week against a hungry rival that is finding their way back to strength as well. They need to win 3 out of 4 to think B1G title. That doesn't look likely with a beleaguered offense and two of those games being on the road, and both potentially at night.
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Last week in parenthesis
1. PENN STATE (1) - this is probably the only one I'm comfortable in
2. WISCONSIN (2) - one of these weeks they are going to dig themselves too deep a hole
3. MICHIGAN (3) - bye week
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security
5. MARYLAND (8) - no idea what to do with them, but UCF looks really good, and nobody else has a pair of road wins nearly as good as Texas and Minnesota
6. MICHIGAN STATE (9) - defense is for real, particularly against the run, but the OL means they can't do enough in the trenches against the better teams
7. IOWA (6) - defense played the ultimate bend but don't break, but it wasn't enough
8. PURDUE (10) - Indiana and Minnesota looked so bad, Boiler move up 2 spots during a bye week
9. MINNESOTA (5) - lose at home to a team using a 3rd string QB making his first career start?
10. INDIANA (7) - I think it's time to pull the plug on Lagow and play for 2018
11. NORTHWESTERN (11) - couldn't capitalize on first half turnovers
12. NEBRASKA (12) - at least they proved a solid gap between them and the bottom 2
13. ILLINOIS (13) - 2 and out for Lovie?
14. RUTGERS (14) - if they want Schiano back next year, that wasn't the best display of the roster he'd be taking over
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Last week in parenthesis
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security
This Barrett & Meyer aren't surprising anyone.Once in a tight spot vs a staunch defense he can't ratchet it up like the great ones.Just the opposite IMO the program has propped him up.URBAN will have rotate in either Burrow/Haskins to stretch the field or it'll end like last season
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S&P+ rankings
1. Ohio State (2)
2. Wisconsin (4)
3. Penn State (8)
4. Michigan (9)
5. Michigan State (32)
6. Nebraska (38)
7. Minnesota (44)
8. Iowa (45)
9. Indiana (46)
10. Northwestern (47)
11. Maryland (58)
12. Purdue (72)
13. Rutgers (93)
14. Illinois (97)
These are pretty interesting, and surprising to me. He uses preseason projections as an aid through 6 games. Without the preseason projections, OSU still stays at 2, Wiscy drops to 8 and UM drops to 15. MSU jumps to 22, and Purdue jumps to 31.
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) or anyone else, are there going to be charts and graphs like we had at on the old boards?
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We'll hopefully know a lot more about Purdue after this weekend. Right now, they seem to have the largest variance being ranked anything from 5th to 12th. :017:
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@medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) or anyone else, are there going to be charts and graphs like we had at on the old boards?
I haven't done it on this board largely because there simply aren't enough votes to make it worthwhile. Right now on this one we have:
- MaximumSam
- MichiFan87
- BrutusBuckeye
- LittlePig
- Big Beef Tacosupreme
- Temp430
- 847badgerfan
- fezzador
- ELA
On the old board you needed charts to sort it all out because we typically had 30+ voters. I just don't see a need for charts and graphs to sort out <10 votes.
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- Penn State - I'm not confident. Back-to-back vsM and @tOSU starting next weekend will tell us all we need to know.
- Wisconsin - Again, not confident and I'm not sure how much we will learn from upcoming games @UNL, vPU, vUMD, @ILL, and @IU.
- Michigan - Still not confident. Defense and ST look scary but that offense is just ugly.
- Ohio State - With a modest passing thread they would easily be #1.
- Maryland - Surprising win in Minneapolis considering all the personnel losses.
- Michigan State - I consider 3/4 and 5/6 to be toss-ups and believe that the gap between 3/4 and 5/6 is enormous. Thus, it feels silly to rank Maryland/MSU right behind M/tOSU because I frankly think that both Maryland and MSU will get shredded this weekend.
- Iowa - Behind MSU due to the loss. OTOH, I'm not dead set on that ranking because it was close and a road game for the Hawkeyes. What sucks for the Hawkeyes is that with two losses in conference already they are practically eliminated from the B1G-W race.
- Minnesota - What happened?
- Purdue - We'll find out this weekend if the Boilermakers can get into the top half of the conference. This game is also important for both teams' bowl chances.
- Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are 2-0 in the B1G and lead the B1G-W but that appears set to crash. The good news is that they host their next two games. The bad news is that their next two opponents beat them 23-17 and 62-3 last year.
- Northwestern - They played well in the loss at Wisconsin. Can they compete with Penn State this weekend? I doubt it.
- Indiana - The scheduling gods really screwed the Hoosiers. Their first three B1G games are Ohio State (lost 49-21 at home), Penn State (lost 45-14 on the road) and Michigan (10/14 at home). It is hard to tell how good they might be because I would expect most teams to start 0-3 against that slate.
- Illinois - They have a tune-up this weekend in Iowa City to get ready for the hotly anticipated pillow-fight of the year at home against Rutgers next weekend.
- Rutgers - They have the week off this week and they need it. At Illinois next weekend is probably Rutgers' best chance to avoid going 0-9/1-11 this year.
Since joining the B1G Rutgers has won only four B1G games:
- Michigan in their second B1G game in 2014, Michigan finished 5-7.
- Indiana in 2014, Indiana finished 4-8.
- Maryland in 2014, Maryland finished 7-6.
- Indiana in 2015, Indiana finished 6-7.
After beating Michigan in 2014 the Scarlet Knights had a bye so they spent 14 days at 1-1 all-time in B1G Conference games. Then they lost 56-17 in Columbus and finished 3-5. They went 1-7 in 2015 and 0-9 in 2016 and are 0-2 so far this year for a grand total of 4-23.
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1. PENN STATE (1) - As a PSU homer is till feel comfortable with them on top. Unlike Taco, I see improvement by every unit save the OL. I guess JF is hell bent on getting SB the Trophy but still building for next year. That is the only reason for the tweaks to the OL grouping/positions during th off season, as they haven't paid off yet this season.
2. WISCONSIN (2) - one of these weeks they are going to dig themselves too deep a hole.
3. MICHIGAN (3) - bye week -
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security - They by far and away have the most talent, can and will it come together this season.
5. MARYLAND (8) - no idea what to do with them, but UCF looks really good, and nobody else has a pair of road wins nearly as good as Texas and Minnesota. DJ has these guys believing and playing hard.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (9) - defense is for real, particularly against the run, but the OL means they can't do enough in the trenches against the better teams
7. IOWA (6) - defense played the ultimate bend but don't break, but it wasn't enough
8. PURDUE (10) - Indiana and Minnesota looked so bad, Boiler move up 2 spots during a bye week
9. MINNESOTA (5) - lose at home to a team using a 3rd string QB making his first career start?
10. INDIANA (7) - I think it's time to pull the plug on Lagow and play for 2018.
11. NORTHWESTERN (11) - couldn't capitalize on first half turnovers
12. NEBRASKA (12) - at least they proved a solid gap between them and the bottom 2
13. ILLINOIS (13) - 2 and out for Lovie? I doubt he'd care .. does he even want this job or is it just paying the bills? Would anyone wan this job?
14. RUTGERS (14) - if they want Schiano back next year, that wasn't the best display of the roster he'd be taking over. Blah
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1. PENN STATE (1) - As a PSU homer is till feel comfortable with them on top. Unlike Taco, I see improvement by every unit save the OL. I guess JF is hell bent on getting SB the Trophy but still building for next year. That is the only reason for the tweaks to the OL grouping/positions during th off season, as they haven't paid off yet this season.
2. WISCONSIN (2) - one of these weeks they are going to dig themselves too deep a hole.
3. MICHIGAN (3) - bye week -
4. OHIO STATE (4) - not sure if they are building confidence or getting lulled into a false sense of security - They by far and away have the most talent, can and will it come together this season.
5. MARYLAND (8) - no idea what to do with them, but UCF looks really good, and nobody else has a pair of road wins nearly as good as Texas and Minnesota. DJ has these guys believing and playing hard.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (9) - defense is for real, particularly against the run, but the OL means they can't do enough in the trenches against the better teams
7. IOWA (6) - defense played the ultimate bend but don't break, but it wasn't enough
8. PURDUE (10) - Indiana and Minnesota looked so bad, Boiler move up 2 spots during a bye week
9. MINNESOTA (5) - lose at home to a team using a 3rd string QB making his first career start?
10. INDIANA (7) - I think it's time to pull the plug on Lagow and play for 2018.
11. NORTHWESTERN (11) - couldn't capitalize on first half turnovers
12. NEBRASKA (12) - at least they proved a solid gap between them and the bottom 2
13. ILLINOIS (13) - 2 and out for Lovie? I doubt he'd care .. does he even want this job or is it just paying the bills? Would anyone wan this job?
14. RUTGERS (14) - if they want Schiano back next year, that wasn't the best display of the roster he'd be taking over. Blah
LOL, did you just copy mine? including the comments?
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LOL, did you just copy mine? including the comments?
I wondered the same thing. As I was reading it I was thinking "this sounds really familiar".
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He just added his own comments on the end of yours.
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He just added his own comments on the end of yours.
Nah, most of the comments are the same too.
I don't care, I just did a weird double take when I read it
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Yeah I did, what are you gonna do about it ! I haven’t had much time to partake this year, not even in the pick Emma etc. I usually get about 10 min a week to glance over threads and noticed Medina comment on not having enough data. I just took the best rankings and added a few of my own thoughts, appreciate your hard work Adam.
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Week 5 composite computer rankings (84 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. Clemson (2)
2. Alabama (1)
3. Georgia (6)
4. PENN STATE (8)
5. MICHIGAN (4)
6. Oklahoma (3)
7. TCU (10)
8. Washington (7)
9. OHIO STATE (9)
10. USC (5)
11. Miami (16)
12. WISCONSIN (11)
13. Notre Dame (13)
14. Oklahoma State (14)
15. Washington State (20)
16. Central Florida (-)
17. Auburn (23)
18. Virginia Tech (12)
19. San Diego State (19)
20. Florida (22)
21. Louisville (17)
22. Oregon (-)
23. South Florida (18)
24. Stanford (25)
25. NC State (-)
33. Maryland (52)
34. Iowa (29)
35. Michigan State (49)
38. Minnesota (24)
46. Indiana (43)
57. Purdue (54)
58. Nebraska (68)
66. Northwestern (57)
90. Illinois (69)
106. Rutgers (104)
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Week 5 composite computer rankings (84 computers - last week in parentheses)
4. PENN STATE (8)
5. MICHIGAN (4)
9. OHIO STATE (9)
12. WISCONSIN (11)
33. Maryland (52)
34. Iowa (29)
35. Michigan State (49)
38. Minnesota (24)
46. Indiana (43)
57. Purdue (54)
58. Nebraska (68)
66. Northwestern (57)
90. Illinois (69)
106. Rutgers (104)
What stands out to me here is the enormous gap between the top-4 and the rest of the conference. Iowa already lost at home to Penn State. Maryland and Michigan State get their cracks at the top-4 this weekend. Unless something highly unexpected happens it appears that:
- Wisconsin will have their way with the B1G-W.
- The B1G-E will be decided in three games: M@PSU on 10/21, PSU@tOSU on 10/28, and tOSU@M on 11/25.
At the present time it appears that the other six teams in the B1G-W and the other four teams in the B1G-E will not be able to compete in any meaningful way.
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The schedule sets up nicely for the Buckeyes, with a bye before PSU, while PSU has to play M the week before.
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The schedule sets up nicely for the Buckeyes, with a bye before PSU, while PSU has to play M the week before.
PSU played OSU right after a bye week in 2005, and I think in 2008.
sometimes a bye week serves more to kill momentum than rest the team.
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- The B1G-E will be decided in three games: M@PSU on 10/21, PSU@tOSU on 10/28, and tOSU@M on 11/25.
Sort of disagree with this.
I think it swings on who wins those games AND who doesn't get upset. Because the gap is so large, you can't count on your opponent dropping any games outside those 3, so a loss by any of them is massive. We saw that last year, where they all went 1-1 against each other, so what swung it was that only Michigan suffered a bad loss outside the group. A loss to any of the other 7 games on your schedule is a lot bigger than it typically is. It's college football, upsets happen, and they sting, but you can usually count on your rival also getting upset somewhere too. Not so much right now.
The other difference is Michigan plays Wisconsin (in Madison) and the other two don't. So Michigan actually has 3 games against that top group and the others just have 2. So even if they all go 1-1 against each other, and all avoid any bad losses, Michigan is still at a disadvantage because they could have a "good" loss to Wisconsin, while neither OSU or PSU have that on the schedule.
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Well a night game in Lincoln is no walk in the cake. So advantage Penn St.
They already defeated their fixed crossover. On the road.
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Well a night game in Lincoln is no walk in the cake. So advantage Penn St.
They already defeated their fixed crossover. On the road.
Well the theory was that there was a huge gap beyond the top 4. And that games among those teams will decide things, but one of those games was ignored.
Nebraska is ranked #12 right now. PSU might have a tougher crossover road game this week at Northwestern than OSU does at Nebraska.
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PSU played OSU right after a bye week in 2005, and I think in 2008.
sometimes a bye week serves more to kill momentum than rest the team.
As I am sure you are aware, Penn State won both of those games. In 2008 PSU was coming off of a bye while OSU was coming off of beating Michigan State. Penn State finished with a better record (11-2 v 10-3) but Ohio State had a tougher schedule (at least at the top). Ohio State's other two losses were to a pair of teams that each finished 12-1 (Texas and USC). PSU's two losses were to the same USC team that beat Ohio State and at Iowa.
In 2005 OSU was coming off of a bye while PSU was coming off of beating Minnesota.
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Sort of disagree with this.
I think it swings on who wins those games AND who doesn't get upset. Because the gap is so large, you can't count on your opponent dropping any games outside those 3, so a loss by any of them is massive. We saw that last year, where they all went 1-1 against each other, so what swung it was that only Michigan suffered a bad loss outside the group. A loss to any of the other 7 games on your schedule is a lot bigger than it typically is. It's college football, upsets happen, and they sting, but you can usually count on your rival also getting upset somewhere too. Not so much right now.
The other difference is Michigan plays Wisconsin (in Madison) and the other two don't. So Michigan actually has 3 games against that top group and the others just have 2. So even if they all go 1-1 against each other, and all avoid any bad losses, Michigan is still at a disadvantage because they could have a "good" loss to Wisconsin, while neither OSU or PSU have that on the schedule.
I see your point. I should have had more discussion of the M/UW game because that could end up being huge. It seems to me that this mildly favors Ohio State because if all of the top-4 win their home games against each other we get end up with Ohio State winning a tie with Penn State based on H2H while Michigan is a game down with the extra loss in Madison. Still, the games among tOSU/PSU/M are bigger because an upset there changes the whole dynamic. Ie, if Michigan wins in Happy Valley or if Penn State wins in Columbus or if Ohio State wins in Ann Arbor that would more than make up for Michigan's extra difficult game.
I hadn't thought about the angle that your rivals are less likely than usual to get upset but it is a good point. If you need your rival to get upset there aren't a lot of good chances.
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I see your point. I should have had more discussion of the M/UW game because that could end up being huge. It seems to me that this mildly favors Ohio State because if all of the top-4 win their home games against each other we get end up with Ohio State winning a tie with Penn State based on H2H while Michigan is a game down with the extra loss in Madison. Still, the games among tOSU/PSU/M are bigger because an upset there changes the whole dynamic. Ie, if Michigan wins in Happy Valley or if Penn State wins in Columbus or if Ohio State wins in Ann Arbor that would more than make up for Michigan's extra difficult game.
I hadn't thought about the angle that your rivals are less likely than usual to get upset but it is a good point. If you need your rival to get upset there aren't a lot of good chances.
I don't want to play sandbagger, but it's a steep hill to climb for Michigan. This weekend is obviously a must win for them + they have to win 2 of 3 (@ PSU, @ Wisc, vs. Ohio State) to have a shot at this. They have to win the big rivalry game against Ohio State + win a difficult road game against 1 of 2 top ten teams. Or they have to win both road games.
Michigan's x-over road game is far more daunting than the Ohio State's or Penn State's in this case. That is why I think Ohio State is in the drivers seat. They have Penn State at home, and they have a more favorable road x-over compared to Michigan.
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I don't want to play sandbagger, but it's a steep hill to climb for Michigan. This weekend is obviously a must win for them + they have to win 2 of 3 (@ PSU, @ Wisc, vs. Ohio State) to have a shot at this. They have to win the big rivalry game against Ohio State + win a difficult road game against 1 of 2 top ten teams. Or they have to win both road games.
Michigan's x-over road game is far more daunting than the Ohio State's or Penn State's in this case. That is why I think Ohio State is in the drivers seat. They have Penn State at home, and they have a more favorable road x-over compared to Michigan.
I don't think that is sandbagging at all. Per ELA's computer compilation list there is a HUMONGOUS gap between the top-4 and everybody else and of the top-4 here are their games against other top-4 teams:
- Michigan: @PSU, @UW, vtOSU
- Ohio State: vPSU, @M
- Penn State: vM, @tOSU
- Wisconsin: vM
Wisconsin has, by far, the easiest situation for three reasons:
- They are not in the same division as the other three,
- They only play one game against a fellow top-4 team, and
- They get to host the only game they have against a fellow top-4 team.
Michigan has, obviously, the toughest situation because they play all of the other three and two of them on the road.
The things that I think could potentially change this:
- If one of the "other" ten starts looking more like a top-4 team. Obviously this would be dependent on which one. At this point it doesn't look very likely.
- If one of the top-4 turns out not to be so good. There are arguments against all four. It is entirely possible that one or more of them aren't nearly as good as we think right now.
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Meanwhile Alvarez remains chagrined about Delany putting Michigan on their crossover schedule.
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As I am sure you are aware, Penn State won both of those games. In 2008 PSU was coming off of a bye while OSU was coming off of beating Michigan State. Penn State finished with a better record (11-2 v 10-3) but Ohio State had a tougher schedule (at least at the top). Ohio State's other two losses were to a pair of teams that each finished 12-1 (Texas and USC). PSU's two losses were to the same USC team that beat Ohio State and at Iowa.
In 2005 OSU was coming off of a bye while PSU was coming off of beating Minnesota.
Obviously I knew which years we won. I didn't remember, and didn't look it up, that PSU had a bye in 2008. My point was merely that a bye week is not always an advantage.
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Meanwhile Alvarez remains chagrined about Delany putting Michigan on their crossover schedule.
He wanted Ohio State, but was given his second choice, which is still great.
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He wanted Ohio State, but was given his second choice, which is still great.
should've been MSU. that Wisc-MSU series was pretty damn good for a few years there.
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So was the OSU game, but yeah, the MSU games got going pretty good for a while there.
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Michigan-Wisconsin is fine. Battle of Lake Michigan.
Nebraska-Ohio St, the helmetiest team in each Division.
Northwestern-Rutgers has the whole NYC-Chicago thing going on.
Penn St-Iowa... eh, Kirk Ferentz is from PA?
MSU-Illinois and Minnesota-Maryland are tough to sugar coat, though.
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Should be
Penn State - Minnesota
Iowa - MSU
Maryland - Illinois
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The shit thing about these crossovers being locked for 6 years is that you have just barely enough time to develop a little rivalry thing, and then POOF. Gone.
It's stupid. Might be just as stupid as putting Wisconsin in the East division and taking Iowa away for a while.
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Next cycle it should be
OSU - Wisc
MSU - Iowa
PSU - Neb
Mich - Minn
MD - ILL
Rut- NW
Indy -Purdue
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should've been MSU. that Wisc-MSU series was pretty damn good for a few years there.
I think MSU asked for Northwestern to play in Chicago. Guess they got the state right.