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The schedule sets up nicely for the Buckeyes, with a bye before PSU, while PSU has to play M the week before.

• The B1G-E will be decided in three games:  M@PSU on 10/21, PSU@tOSU on 10/28, and tOSU@M on 11/25.  

 

Sort of disagree with this.
I think it swings on who wins those games AND who doesn't get upset.  Because the gap is so large, you can't count on your opponent dropping any games outside those 3, so a loss by any of them is massive.  We saw that last year, where they all went 1-1 against each other, so what swung it was that only Michigan suffered a bad loss outside the group.  A loss to any of the other 7 games on your schedule is a lot bigger than it typically is.  It's college football, upsets happen, and they sting, but you can usually count on your rival also getting upset somewhere too.  Not so much right now.
The other difference is Michigan plays Wisconsin (in Madison) and the other two don't.  So Michigan actually has 3 games against that top group and the others just have 2.  So even if they all go 1-1 against each other, and all avoid any bad losses, Michigan is still at a disadvantage because they could have a "good" loss to Wisconsin, while neither OSU or PSU have that on the schedule.

Well a night game in Lincoln is no walk in the cake. So advantage Penn St.

They already defeated their fixed crossover. On the road.

Well the theory was that there was a huge gap beyond the top 4.  And that games among those teams will decide things, but one of those games was ignored.
Nebraska is ranked #12 right now.  PSU might have a tougher crossover road game this week at Northwestern than OSU does at Nebraska.

Sort of disagree with this.
I think it swings on who wins those games AND who doesn't get upset.  Because the gap is so large, you can't count on your opponent dropping any games outside those 3, so a loss by any of them is massive.  We saw that last year, where they all went 1-1 against each other, so what swung it was that only Michigan suffered a bad loss outside the group.  A loss to any of the other 7 games on your schedule is a lot bigger than it typically is.  It's college football, upsets happen, and they sting, but you can usually count on your rival also getting upset somewhere too.  Not so much right now.
The other difference is Michigan plays Wisconsin (in Madison) and the other two don't.  So Michigan actually has 3 games against that top group and the others just have 2.  So even if they all go 1-1 against each other, and all avoid any bad losses, Michigan is still at a disadvantage because they could have a "good" loss to Wisconsin, while neither OSU or PSU have that on the schedule.

I see your point.  I should have had more discussion of the M/UW game because that could end up being huge.  It seems to me that this mildly favors Ohio State because if all of the top-4 win their home games against each other we get end up with Ohio State winning a tie with Penn State based on H2H while Michigan is a game down with the extra loss in Madison.  Still, the games among tOSU/PSU/M are bigger because an upset there changes the whole dynamic.  Ie, if Michigan wins in Happy Valley or if Penn State wins in Columbus or if Ohio State wins in Ann Arbor that would more than make up for Michigan's extra difficult game.  
I hadn't thought about the angle that your rivals are less likely than usual to get upset but it is a good point.  If you need your rival to get upset there aren't a lot of good chances.  

I don't want to play sandbagger, but it's a steep hill to climb for Michigan. This weekend is obviously a must win for them + they have to win 2 of 3 (@ PSU, @ Wisc, vs. Ohio State) to have a shot at this. They have to win the big rivalry game against Ohio State + win a difficult road game against 1 of 2 top ten teams. Or they have to win both road games.
Michigan's x-over road game is far more daunting than the Ohio State's or Penn State's in this case. That is why I think Ohio State is in the drivers seat. They have Penn State at home, and they have a more favorable road x-over compared to Michigan.

I don't think that is sandbagging at all.  Per ELA's computer compilation list there is a HUMONGOUS gap between the top-4 and everybody else and of the top-4 here are their games against other top-4 teams:

• Michigan:  @PSU, @UW, vtOSU
• Ohio State:  vPSU, @M
• Penn State:  vM, @tOSU
• Wisconsin:  vM

Wisconsin has, by far, the easiest situation for three reasons:

• They are not in the same division as the other three, 
• They only play one game against a fellow top-4 team, and
• They get to host the only game they have against a fellow top-4 team.  

Michigan has, obviously, the toughest situation because they play all of the other three and two of them on the road.  

The things that I think could potentially change this:

• If one of the "other" ten starts looking more like a top-4 team.  Obviously this would be dependent on which one.  At this point it doesn't look very likely.  
• If one of the top-4 turns out not to be so good.  There are arguments against all four.  It is entirely possible that one or more of them aren't nearly as good as we think right now.  

As I am sure you are aware, Penn State won both of those games.  In 2008 PSU was coming off of a bye while OSU was coming off of beating Michigan State.  Penn State finished with a better record (11-2 v 10-3) but Ohio State had a tougher schedule (at least at the top).  Ohio State's other two losses were to a pair of teams that each finished 12-1 (Texas and USC).  PSU's two losses were to the same USC team that beat Ohio State and at Iowa.  
In 2005 OSU was coming off of a bye while PSU was coming off of beating Minnesota.  

Obviously I knew which years we won.  I didn't remember, and didn't look it up, that PSU had a bye in 2008.  My point was merely that a bye week is not always an advantage.

He wanted Ohio State, but was given his second choice, which is still great.

should've been MSU. that Wisc-MSU series was pretty damn good for a few years there.