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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
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CWSooner · « **Reply #210 on:** November 16, 2017, 05:49:44 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2017, 05:31:30 PM

the Sooners would be left out for the sinful home loss to the Cyclones

and they should

Maybe so. But then so should Clemson for its road loss to a much-worse-than-Iowa-State Syracuse team.

I'm not going to pull a Lou Holtz on Iowa State, but that is not a bad team. The Clones have lost by 3 to Iowa, by by 4 at West Virginia, and by 7 to oSu on a last-play pick in the end zone. Their only bad loss is by 10 to Texas. They will probably finish 8-4.

If we want to make allowances for injuries, ISU could be the dictionary illustration. I believe that they were using their pre-season 4th-string QB against Oklahoma State.

Meanwhile, Clemson gets a pass because their QB who has thrown almost as many picks as TDs went down against Syracuse.

To the other point under discussion here, the rankings should reflect how the Committee sees the teams RIGHT NOW, not how they will be after their CCGs, or after they play their hated rivals, or whatnot. It would be misleading if the Committee were to project Clemson (for example) to beat Miami in the ACC CG and rank them accordingly. I don't think that they are doing that. I think that, in this respect, they are doing the right thing.

So I agree with Badge that, if the season were to end today, Wisconsin--rightly or wrongly--would be left out. If Wisconsin wins out, the Badgers will properly be in the top 4. No way a 13-0 P5 conference champ gets left out unless all 5 P5 champs are undefeated.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #211 on:** November 16, 2017, 05:58:46 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on November 16, 2017, 05:47:59 PM

Yeah, it's a tough one to call. I think you might be right on that.
However, assuming both Miami and Clemson win out, they will still have to play one another, and that will result in elimination. If Wisconsin wins out, they're certainly in. If they take a loss, well then all bets are off, of course.

My guess is that they could lose to either Michigan or Minnesota and still be almost certainly in if they win the B1GCG to finish 12-1. However, 12-1 with a loss in the B1GCG would almost certainly keep the Badgers out.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #212 on:** November 16, 2017, 06:19:57 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 16, 2017, 05:28:05 PM

Over who?

Helmet schools Bama and OU are in.

Miami is undefeated too, and has a (supposedly) awesome win over ND.

Clemson gets defending champion love.

If the season were to end today, Wisconsin would be #5.

End of story.

In a way I think you are both right. If there was some horrific calamity that prevented the last two weeks of the season and the CCG's from being played and the CFP committee had to create a ranking based only on what has already transpired I think what we see now would be it. The CFP would be:

#1 Bama vs #4 Oklahoma
#3 Clemson vs #3 Miami

On the other hand, fearless has a point because "undefeated Wisconsin" would be in at the end of the season. That, however, assumes that Wisconsin:

beats Michigan, and
beats Minnesota, and
wins the B1GCG to become the Champion of the B1G.

If those things happen then there is absolutely zero chance that "undefeated Wisconsin" will miss the CFP.

I also believe that the Michigan game is probably irrelevant to Wisconsin's playoff chances because a 12-1 B1G Champion would be ranked ahead of:

All non-Champions (including Notre Dame)
The P12 Champion (which will have at least two losses).

Thus, 12-1 B1G Champion Wisconsin would only be potentially behind the Champions of the SEC, ACC, and B12.

FearlessF · « **Reply #213 on:** November 16, 2017, 06:47:08 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 16, 2017, 05:49:44 PM

Maybe so. But then so should Clemson for its road loss to a much-worse-than-Iowa-State Syracuse team.

you're right
I would leave out Clemson instead of Oklahoma - regardless of what Clemson did last season
Oklahoma's loss is better and Oklahoma's win over Ohio St is better
sorry, just using Oklahoma as an example

FearlessF · « **Reply #214 on:** November 16, 2017, 06:56:47 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 16, 2017, 06:19:57 PM

In a way I think you are both right. If there was some horrific calamity that prevented the last two weeks of the season and the CCG's from being played and the CFP committee had to create a ranking based only on what has already transpired I think what we see now would be it. The CFP would be:
#1 Bama vs #4 Oklahoma
#3 Clemson vs #3 Miami

my argument is based on the committee simply ranking by the loss column. If the season ended today and they put the committee in a room and forced them to come up with the final 4, Wisconsin with NO losses would get the #4 seed if not the #3 seed.
I could be wrong, the committee changes a few members each season and I don't know what they are thinking, but..... pretty hard to put in an OU or Clemson with a loss over an undefeated Badger team

CWSooner · « **Reply #215 on:** November 16, 2017, 07:47:18 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2017, 06:47:08 PM

you're right
I would leave out Clemson instead of Oklahoma - regardless of what Clemson did last season
Oklahoma's loss is better and Oklahoma's win over Ohio St is better
sorry, just using Oklahoma as an example

No offense taken, Fearless.

To go back to the ridiculousness of "taking injuries into account," if the Committee REALLY wants to do that, then it should look at OU in the Iowa State game. 6 Sooner starters--including 2 OL, the best WR, and the best DB--missed all or most of that game due to injuries.

Of course, ISU was on its 3rd-string QB in that game, so maybe everything sort of evened out. Just like everything maybe sorta evened out in Clemson @ Syracuse.

I wonder when the Committee will start "taking poor officiating into account." Or "boneheaded coaching decisions."

FearlessF · « **Reply #216 on:** November 16, 2017, 08:03:52 PM »

I think, the only time the committee should take injuries into account if the final pool is very close for #4 and #5

for example: say Baker Mayfield is injured as the Sooners win the Big 12 champ game. Not available to play in the playoff

Only if it was already a very close vote between OU and Clemson, then I think you can give a healthy Clemson squad the nod for the #4 seed

otherwise, it's a team sport. Base the votes on how the team performs on the field of play

Kris61 · « **Reply #217 on:** November 17, 2017, 06:01:41 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 16, 2017, 01:37:19 PM

It appears that the Committee regards Clemson has having less than one loss. Maybe half of a loss. Otherwise, why is Clemson ahead of undefeated Miami? Clemson's one big win at home over an Auburn squad that wasn't playing well at the time. Miami's one big win was at home over Notre Dame. But Clemson has a loss, to stinkin' Syracuse, so why are the Tigers ranked ahead of the Hurricanes?

Clemson also has six wins over P5 teams with winning records. No one else is close to that. There is a really good chance they will have eight heading into the ACC CCG. That's why I mentioned earlier that even if Clemson loses to Miami they would at least have an argument over an 11-2 conference champ Ohio St (or any 11-2 champ for that matter).

ELA · « **Reply #218 on:** November 17, 2017, 07:49:00 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 16, 2017, 06:56:47 PM

my argument is based on the committee simply ranking by the loss column. If the season ended today and they put the committee in a room and forced them to come up with the final 4, Wisconsin with NO losses would get the #4 seed if not the #3 seed.
I could be wrong, the committee changes a few members each season and I don't know what they are thinking, but..... pretty hard to put in an OU or Clemson with a loss over an undefeated Badger team

Yeah, I agree with this. They know Clemson and Miami still have to play each other, so the spot is there if Wisconsin wins out, so they aren't overly worried about it, but if they had to end it now, I think Bucky would be in, whether or not you feel like they deserve it.
That said, if you are ending it right now, you are ending it after 10 games. The reason undefeateds get a bump at the end is because they did it for 13 games, not 10, and they have a conference title. This is 3 less games, and no title. After 1 week, we don't overly care if someone is undefeated. That sole fact matters increasingly with each week, particularly when you add a conference title. Does 10 weeks and to conference title make it mean enough to overcome a SOS gap? Not sure.

utee94 · « **Reply #219 on:** November 17, 2017, 09:44:38 AM »

Quote from: Kris61 on November 17, 2017, 06:01:41 AM

Clemson also has six wins over P5 teams with winning records. No one else is close to that. There is a really good chance they will have eight heading into the ACC CCG. That's why I mentioned earlier that even if Clemson loses to Miami they would at least have an argument over an 11-2 conference champ Ohio St (or any 11-2 champ for that matter).

I mean, yeah, Clemson would have an argument. But not a particularly good one IMO, since they already had a shot at presumed playoff participant Miami and lost.

And beyond that, ESPN's selection committee is always going to favor a helmet when it can, and it's always going to look for geographic diversity in the 4 playoff teams when it can, because their sole objective is to turn on as many TV sets as possible. This is why I asserted last year, and will continue to assert, that it's going to take some catastrophic situation of multiple 3-loss (or worse) P5 conference champs before ESPN is going to put two teams in from the same conference. They're in pretty dire financial straits right now and really can't afford to piss off half (or more) of the entire country.

FearlessF · « **Reply #220 on:** November 17, 2017, 11:10:35 AM »

yup, the Committee will be watching the Wisconsin-Michigan game with high interest

but, they can and will do whatever they like in the final poll

if that means dropping a one-loss #2 team to #5 to make room for an undefeated to get in, they will do it

utee94 · « **Reply #221 on:** November 17, 2017, 11:30:12 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 17, 2017, 11:10:35 AM

yup, the Committee will be watching the Wisconsin-Michigan game with high interest

but, they can and will do whatever they like in the final poll

if that means dropping a one-loss #2 team to #5 to make room for an undefeated to get in, they will do it

For sure. Which is precisely why they've positioned Miami and Clemson where they have. There's zero risk for doing so, the games will play out, and then they can craft whatever narrative they like to explain their final selections.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #222 on:** November 17, 2017, 11:59:37 AM »

UW just needs to win. That is all the kids can control.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #223 on:** November 17, 2017, 12:03:17 PM »

playoff contenders at this moment (no particular order)

1 - sec champ (bama, au, uga)
2 - acc champ (clemson, miami)
3 - bigxii champ (ou, tcu)
4 - b1g champ (wisk, osu)

should any of these teams lose unexpectedly, we will reevaluate. but as it stands, these teams all have games vs each other with little else standing in their way (except mich for osu/wisk).

p12 would need an epic collapse from about 7 teams above to get back in.
nd might sneak in with the normal fallout and a couple of collapses.
bama might sneak back in with a loss if others collapse similar to nd scenario.

otherwise it's fairly straight forward to me.

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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

CWSooner

Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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FearlessF

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CWSooner

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FearlessF

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Kris61

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ELA

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utee94

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FearlessF

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utee94

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847badgerfan

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rolltidefan

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