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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

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Kris61

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #140 on: November 12, 2017, 08:07:00 PM »
Auburn is the most important win for Clemson, and Wisconsin doesn't have one of those.  That Syracuse loss just can't be written off so easily, they are a 4-6 team.  Wisconsin has dominated every Syracuse they've played.
No they haven't.  Wisconsin beat Purdue 17-9.  They snoozed through a lackluster 24-10 effort over a terrible Illinois team.  The Nebraska game was a 7 point game headed to the 4th.  Even the FAU was a 10 point game basically the entire second half until UW added a TD with about a minute left.
I'm not saying Wisconsin shouldn't be allowed those efforts because everyone has them but there are some valid reasons they aren't getting the same respect as some other teams in the mix.  
Alabama, Clemson, and Miami all have more wins over teams with winning records and pending the committee's top 25 on Tuesday will probably all have more ranked wins than Wisconsin.  Oklahoma will probably have 3 top 15 wins come Tuesday night.
I totally get the pro-Wisconsin argument and if I were a fan I would be on the highest mountain making those arguments.  I think there is an argument to put them in the top 4 right now but I think there is also one to put them 5th.  I personally have them 5th but admit I went back and forth slotting them there.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #141 on: November 12, 2017, 08:35:51 PM »
Yeah, Wisconsin is playing their best games down the stretch, and could benefit from those games being the most recent in the memory of the selection committee come playoff selection time. 
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ELA

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #142 on: November 13, 2017, 08:08:50 AM »
Slight change this week...
#1 Georgia vs. #4 Clemson
#2 Miami vs. #3 Alabama
Georgia out...Oklahoma in...
#1 Miami vs. #4 Oklahoma
#2 Alabama vs. #3 Clemson

Committee says conference titles are an important factor, but they don't project them, so neither am I.  So even without upsets, only one of Miami and Clemson could win one.  Not having one, and Wisconsin having one would be enough for me to leap Bucky in.

My overall top 10 right now:
1. Miami
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. Notre Dame
9. USC
10. Oklahoma State
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 08:11:46 AM by ELA »

TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #143 on: November 13, 2017, 09:23:21 AM »
My overall top 10 right now:
1. Miami
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. Notre Dame
9. USC
10. Oklahoma State


No love for the Buckeyes? I guess your still stinging from Saturday.

I don't have any major beefs, with the exception of Oklahoma St. Their OOC was awful, their best wins are Iowa St and West Virginia, good wins, but they didn't play "great" in either of those games in my opinion. I think Ohio St with better wins against Penn St and MSU should be #10, maybe #9. I'm not sold on USC yet.

I think the Buckeyes ceiling is probably going to be around 5, if they win out. They'd definitely pass ND, Okie St, Wisconsin (head to head win and conf title and badgers weaker schedule), Georgia (assuming they don't win SEC), probably (Clemson/Miami loser) although not guaranteed, Auburn (assuming it loses again).

they won't pass Alabama even with 1 loss (with or without a conference title), they won't pass OU even with 2 losses (with or without conference title), they won't pass the Clemson/Miami winner, they won't pass a Georgia SEC title winner, a USC PAC 12 title winner would be interesting, both got housed in 1 game, both have some decent wins. it might come down to who they get in their respected title games and how they look.  not sure of tiebreakers, but looks like Wash St, Standford or Washington for USC. I'm guessing they'd prefer Washington as they'd be higher ranked. Bucks need Badgers to win out almost as bad as Badgers need Bucks to win out. then they could add a top 10 win, maybe top 6-7 to end the year.

847badgerfan

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #144 on: November 13, 2017, 09:39:09 AM »
The Badgers need to get healthy. That is critical for this home stretch.
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ELA

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #145 on: November 13, 2017, 09:57:26 AM »
My overall top 10 right now:
1. Miami
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. Notre Dame
9. USC
10. Oklahoma State


No love for the Buckeyes? I guess your still stinging from Saturday.

I don't have any major beefs, with the exception of Oklahoma St. Their OOC was awful, their best wins are Iowa St and West Virginia, good wins, but they didn't play "great" in either of those games in my opinion. I think Ohio St with better wins against Penn St and MSU should be #10, maybe #9. I'm not sold on USC yet.

I think the Buckeyes ceiling is probably going to be around 5, if they win out. They'd definitely pass ND, Okie St, Wisconsin (head to head win and conf title and badgers weaker schedule), Georgia (assuming they don't win SEC), probably (Clemson/Miami loser) although not guaranteed, Auburn (assuming it loses again).

they won't pass Alabama even with 1 loss (with or without a conference title), they won't pass OU even with 2 losses (with or without conference title), they won't pass the Clemson/Miami winner, they won't pass a Georgia SEC title winner, a USC PAC 12 title winner would be interesting, both got housed in 1 game, both have some decent wins. it might come down to who they get in their respected title games and how they look.  not sure of tiebreakers, but looks like Wash St, Standford or Washington for USC. I'm guessing they'd prefer Washington as they'd be higher ranked. Bucks need Badgers to win out almost as bad as Badgers need Bucks to win out. then they could add a top 10 win, maybe top 6-7 to end the year.
I've said before, I'm a sucker for SOR.  I think this is actually relatively close to exactly what those rankings are, which I believe has OSU #15.  I can quite assure you it has nothing to do with "stinging" from Saturday.

TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #146 on: November 13, 2017, 11:48:31 AM »
I've said before, I'm a sucker for SOR.

I'm always curious about all of these metrics, I think some of it's good, some bad. for instance, I would reward Alabama and Clemson etc for beating 4-6 FSU more than I would say Ohio St for beating 8-2 Army. But there's probably metrics out there that say Army is better.

I'm guessing it's weighted toward helmet schools as well. Alabama is probably getting a ton of love for beating a 7-3 Miss St. Meanwhile I bet Wisconsin would not get near as much love if it beat a then 8-3 UM this weekend.

TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #147 on: November 15, 2017, 09:00:03 AM »
well, from a Holy Buckeye chance of making the playoffs, the rankings were about as good as an Ohio State fan could hope for. Good for Wisconsin as well.

Wisconsin wins out, they're in. maybe even slight hope if they lose a heartbreaker to UM they could still get in.

Ohio St being ranked ahead of USC and TCU was huge.

ND at 8 is not a concern, Bucks can jump them "if" they win out. Auburn, UGA and BAMA, 2 of those 3 are gonna get stuck with a loss. Ideally, Bama wins out which would eliminate both Auburn and UGA. This virtually moves OSU up to 6th place if just that happens. And they get to play Wisconsin to move to 5th.

I think this is the biggest piece of the puzzle, if Alabama loses either against Auburn or UGA I think a 1 loss Bama is going to get in over Ohio State, barring Alabama losing to Auburn by 30 points, which I think most would agree is highly unlikely.

The next biggest piece of the puzzle would be rooting for an epic Miami choke in the next 2 weeks. If Miami meets Clemson in the ACC title and they both have a loss, then the loser is out and that let's Ohio State move to 4th. Sign seal delivered the Bucks are in the playoff.

 If Miami lost to Clemson in the ACC title, and it was a great game, then I think it's razor thin whether you take a 1 loss Miami or a 2 loss BIG 10 champion Ohio State. This could go either way, and might depend on how both squads looks the next 3 weeks.

Finally, ideally, I don't think this has to happen, but you want OU to win out. You don't want to see a TCU or someone upset OU and then you have a 2 loss OU being compared to Ohio St when Ohio St lost to them. I think Ohio St might be ahead of OU if that happened, but I think this also opens the scenario for the committee to then say "well, we think USC is better than both" and then puts USC in to avoid the OU/OSU controversy.

Pretty amazing, after the Iowa loss I put Ohio State's chance of making the playoff at 2%. Now, they're still on life support, but it's maybe a 20% chance to make it. Gotta win 3 games though, 2 which are pretty tough and this teams been pretty schizophrenic so who knows if they can even do that.

847badgerfan

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #148 on: November 15, 2017, 09:27:08 AM »
ND is going to lose to Stanford.
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Temp430

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #149 on: November 15, 2017, 09:31:48 AM »
Having been blown out twice I think it's fair to say Ohio State is not going to the playoffs no matter what happens over the next few weeks.  Wisconsin is it for the Big Ten if they win out.  If Wisconsin does not win out I think the Big Ten gets shut out this year.
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BuckeyeAvenger

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #150 on: November 15, 2017, 10:19:09 AM »
Top 25, Top 10 and Top 5 by conference for the most recent playoff rankings...

Top 25
B1G   6
SEC   5
Pac12 4
Big12 3
ACC   3
G5    3
Ind.  1

Top10
B1G   3
SEC   3
ACC   2
Big12 1
Ind   1

Top 5
ACC   2
B1G   1
SEC   1
Big12 1

TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #151 on: November 15, 2017, 11:14:09 AM »
Having been blown out twice I think it's fair to say Ohio State is not going to the playoffs no matter what happens over the next few weeks.

Normally I would probably agree. I don't think the Oklahoma loss is that bad, we were winning in the 3rd quarter. factor in they are currently a playoff team with the leading Heisman candidate and I don't think that's a killer.

now, the Iowa loss, yup, that might be the deathblow. but if it was, the committee wouldn't have just ranked us in the 9 slot. they wouldn't have ranked ND in the 8 slot who just got taken to the woodshed, and they wouldn't have ranked Georgia in the 7 slot that got blown out as well. USC got blown out by ND and they are at 11. TCU got blown out by Oklahoma they are at 12.

that's the other factor, a lot of top teams have been blown out this year, so that helps.

plus, if Wisconsin, Penn St, MSU keep winning, Ohio State will probably have 2 top 10 wins in PSU and Wiscy, and a top 15 win in MSU. one of their losses will be to a possible top 3 team. so would the committee overlook 1 bad loss to Iowa? I dunno, but they'd have overlook blowouts from the above mentioned teams if any of them were to get in the playoffs as well.

it's a lot of "if's" but I don't think it's impossible. if Clemson is the #2 team in the country right now after a lot of mediocre peformances same with Miami, and Oklahoma who gives up almost 40 points per game, then college football isn't loaded with great teams this year.

847badgerfan

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #152 on: November 15, 2017, 11:23:28 AM »

Normally I would probably agree. I don't think the Oklahoma loss is that bad, we were winning in the 3rd quarter. factor in they are currently a playoff team with the leading Heisman candidate and I don't think that's a killer.

now, the Iowa loss, yup, that might be the deathblow. but if it was, the committee wouldn't have just ranked us in the 9 slot. they wouldn't have ranked ND in the 8 slot who just got taken to the woodshed, and they wouldn't have ranked Georgia in the 7 slot that got blown out as well. USC got blown out by ND and they are at 11. TCU got blown out by Oklahoma they are at 12.

that's the other factor, a lot of top teams have been blown out this year, so that helps.

plus, if Wisconsin, Penn St, MSU keep winning, Ohio State will probably have 2 top 10 wins in PSU and Wiscy, and a top 15 win in MSU. one of their losses will be to a possible top 3 team. so would the committee overlook 1 bad loss to Iowa? I dunno, but they'd have overlook blowouts from the above mentioned teams if any of them were to get in the playoffs as well.

it's a lot of "if's" but I don't think it's impossible. if Clemson is the #2 team in the country right now after a lot of mediocre peformances same with Miami, and Oklahoma who gives up almost 40 points per game, then college football isn't loaded with great teams this year.
You are forgetting about the helmet factor. The most important of all factors.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #153 on: November 15, 2017, 12:53:54 PM »
Having been blown out twice I think it's fair to say Ohio State is not going to the playoffs no matter what happens over the next few weeks.  Wisconsin is it for the Big Ten if they win out.  If Wisconsin does not win out I think the Big Ten gets shut out this year.
I strongly disagree in part because of the bolded/underlined portion of your statement.  
There are not entirely unlikely scenarios that get Ohio State at least into the mix and "no matter what" is just too open-ended.  It is still mathematically possible for Ohio State to essentially become a playoff lock.  
At this point I don't think Ohio State is going to the playoffs but if they win out, I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that they would get in because they would likely be ahead of:
  • Notre Dame (because the Irish can't win a CG and can't do better than 10-2).  
  • Wisconsin (because their schedule is crap and if Ohio State wins out they cannot win the B1G.  
  • The P12 Champion (because this team will have at least two losses and either a blowout loss to ND or a crap schedule).  

 

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