Yeah, a Confederate victory likely would have taken place at a different location, but Lee had beaten McClellan earlier that year in the Seven Days battles with far weaker forces than he had at Antietam.
Even if Lee had not fought a decisive battle no northern soil in the fall of 1862, had he been able to rampage through Pennsylvania, extorting tribute from northern cities, burning northern bridges, tearing up northern railroad tracks, capturing runaway slaves and free blacks and taking them back to the South in slavery, and then escape back to Virginia with a supply of northern foodstuffs, weapons, horses and wagons, that might have been enough to bring about the foreign recognition.