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First the data:
Here are all of the 13+ seeds to win their first round NCAAT game post-COVID:
2021:

• #13 Ohio over #4 Virginia, blown out by #5 Creighton. 
• #13 North Texas over #4 Purdue, blown out by #5 Villanova. 
• #14 Abilene Christian over #3 Texas, blown out by #11 UCLA. 
• #15 Oral Roberts over #2 Ohio State, beat #7 Florida in R32 and lost to #3 Arkansas in the S16. 

2022:

• #15 St. Peters over #2 Kentucky, beat #7 Murray State in R32, beat #3 Purdue in S16, blown out by #8 UNC in E8. 

2023:

• #13 Furman over #4 Virginia, blown out by #5 SDSU. 
• #15 Princeton over #2 Arizona, blew out #7 Mizzou in R32, lost to #6 Creighton in S16. 
• #16 FDU over #1 Purdue, lost to #9 FAU. 

2024:

• #13 Yale over #4 Auburn, blown out by #5 SDSU. 
• #14 Oakland over #3 Kentucky, lost to #11 NCST. 

That is it.  There were none in 2025 and again none in 2026. 

2021-2023 was the all-time high water mark for the 13-16 seeds.  Over those three years 8 of them survived the first round, three made the S16, and one was the only 13+ to EVER win a second weekend game when St. Peters knocked of Purdue in the S16 and thus became the only 13+ to ever make it to the E8.  The 8 that won their opener tied the most ever for a three-year period and:

• The four 13+ seeds to win in 2021 was the most ever in a single tournament. 
• In 2022 St. Peters made the deepest NCAAT penetration by a 13+ in the history of the NCAAT. 
• The three 13+ seeds to win in 2023 tied the second most ever in a single tournament. 

Now my analysis/theory:
NIL and the Portal are making the gap between the haves and have-nots MUCH wider because it is hitting both sides of the equation.  On the high side, teams that will end up as 1-4 seeds are bringing in reinforcements in the form of upper-class contributors from other schools.  That is making the 1-4 seeds better.  Simultaneously the 13-16 seeds are getting worse because some of those reinforcements that the 1-4 seeds are bringing in are guys who previously played for one-bid league teams and in the previous era would have been Seniors at schools like Ohio/NTX/Abilene/Oral/StPetes/Furman/Princeton/FDU/Yale/Oakland. 

There also was a little bit of a delay at which time things actually swung the opposite way for a VERY brief time.  IMHO, this was caused by the extra year of eligibility granted due to COVID.  My supposition here is that the extra year didn't really help the 1-4 seeds much because most of their talent isn't sticking around for 5 years anyway because the NBA is calling.  However, the teams that end up as 13-16 seeds don't have any NBA talent (if they did they wouldn't be 13-16 seeds) so a LOT of their players stuck around for an extra year either just to enjoy an extra year of college or for the love of the game or whatever but there was a shelf-life on that:

• COVID Year 2020 seniors exhausted their eligibility in 2021. 
• COVID Year 2020 juniors exhausted their eligibility in 2022. 
• COVID Year 2020 sophomores exhausted their eligibility in 2023. 
• COVID Year 2020 freshman exhausted their eligibility in 2024. 

Once those extra-year COVID guys moved on the 13+ seeds crashed and they haven't won an NCAAT game since.  In 2026 most of them weren't even close:

• #16 Siena lost to Dook by 6
• #13 Cal Baptist lost to Kansas by 8
• #14 Kennesaw St lost to Gonzaga by 9
• #14 Wright St lost to Virginia by 9
• #15 Furman lost to UCONN by 11
• #13 Hawaii lost to Arkansas by 19
• #13 Hofstra lost to Alabama by 20
• #16 Howard lost to Michigan by 21
• #14 NDAK ST lost to MSU by 25
• #13 Troy lost to Nebraska by 29
• #15 Idaho lost to Houston by 31
• #15 Queens lost to Purdue by 33
• #16 Long Island lost to Arizona by 34
• #15 Tennessee St lost to ISU by 34
• #14 Penn lost to Illinois by 35
• #16 Prairie View A&M got more than doubled up losing to Florida by 59

There are 1300 +/- professional players in the portal at this time.

How many shot themselves in the foot? 

We do not know yet.

There are 1300 +/- professional players in the portal at this time.

How many shot themselves in the foot?

We do not know yet.

I suppose some of it depends on what it means shot themselves in the foot.

One thing that’s interesting about the portal is people tend to treat most in there as someone who had a certain kind of stable situation and is sort of betting on themselves.

And chances are, a lot of them are kids just taking a flyer or who fell off rosters for various reasons. And we probably understate the number of kids who were disappearing off rosters in the pre-portal era.

Of course, there was a lot of house-Creaning going on before the portal.

It's much easier for the coaches now. Tough conversations now go both ways.

(Be careful what you wish for - they wanted this.)

Of the four who left, there were two guys who really didn't want to transfer this year. They got the tough conversation.

One was Blackwell, who will make more money next season at Dook than he will for the rest of his life.

The other one was AB, who put his name in, then wanted to come back, but the money and space were already gone. Tough conversation.

I’m a little unconvinced of some of that.

I read Robison like would’ve been able to come back. But he left. Greppi came over for a little money. Obviously that was gone, but they also just seemed done with him, which happened.

I’d be surprised if that was the case with AB. I think he (or his agent) wanted more money, and he probably got it. And considering he committed to SC before the Badgers added their new big, skeptical space was an issue.

Money for that space was already gone.

Winter cost a lot of money - about double what they thought going in.

AB took less money from USCe than Wisconsin originally offered.

Oops.

So we maybe lose Winter if AB returns?

Fine with how that went. 

Losing Winter was never going to happen. He stayed for less than what the Bluebloods had on the table.

Blackwell said he was a Badger for life.

I think he meant Winter.

So UW would’ve payed AB more than SC, a school that is in no position to lowball anyone, and would’ve kept Winter at double what was expected? 

At some point that math ain’t working, unless they planned to invest much less at wing. 

Ultimately, it’s probably fine. 

Of course, there was a lot of house-Creaning going on before the portal.

It's much easier for the coaches now. Tough conversations now go both ways.

(Be careful what you wish for - they wanted this.)

Of the four who left, there were two guys who really didn't want to transfer this year. They got the tough conversation.

One was Blackwell, who will make more money next season at Dook than he will for the rest of his life.

The other one was AB, who put his name in, then wanted to come back, but the money and space were already gone. Tough conversation.

Yeah, I think Gard and Painter are two coaches who are simply going to be brutally honest and tell a player what their prospects are. 

The difference is that I'm not sure Purdue has *that* many players who are leaving because they're not getting paid enough, so they can keep the players they want. Whereas it sounds like Wisconsin is having trouble with that. 

But I don't get mad at players who transfer out as a result of those tough conversations. If they don't have a realistic path to minutes, and playing time is their desire, I'd rather Painter tell them the truth and let them make their own choice.