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Topic: Oklahoma vs Ohio State

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OrangeAfroMan

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Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« on: December 02, 2018, 01:06:57 AM »
So I wasted about 20 min trying to set up a system (groan) to rank general game outcomes.  Logical stuff like a win is better than a loss, a blowout win is better than a close win, and a win over a good team is better than a win over a bad team.
Logical, right?
So the data involved are:
Win or Loss
Power5 or Group5
MOV - by 3+ possessions, by 2 possessions, or a 1 possession game
SOS - 
2*...Was the opponent at .500 or a game above or below .500?  
3*...Were they 2+ games over .500?  
1*...Were they 2+ games below .500 (in conference games, to even out the scheduling disparity some)




So basically how did you do, against whom, by how much did you win or lose, and how good was your opponent?




The top and bottom of this system are super simple.
The top/best:
Win vs a 3* P5 team by 3 or more possessions
Win vs a 3* P5 team by 2 possessions
Win vs a 3* P5 team by 1 possession
-------------------------
Win vs a 2* P5 team by 3 or more possessions
Win vs a 2* P5 team by 2 possessions
Win vs a 2* P5 team by 1 possession
--------------------------




Okay, and the bottom, worst listed last:
Loss vs 2* G5 team by 1 poss.
Loss vs 2* G5 team by 2 poss.
Loss vs 2* G5 team by 3+ poss.
----------------------
Loss vs 1* G5 team by 1 poss.
Loss vs 1* G5 team by 2 poss.
Loss vs 1* G5 team by 3+ poss.




So that leaves a big middle, right?  I intertwined wins vs bad P5 teams and good G5 teams, then wins vs bad G5.  And the opposite as well - losses vs bad P5 teams and good G5 teams are better than losses vs bad G5 teams.  Logical, still.



I'll list the entire hierarchy, then slide in the OU and OSU schedules and see what we get.  Yes, I'm a nerd.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2018, 01:15:26 AM »
So the top and bottom of this will be a copy of what I posted already, but I want the whole thing on one post.
The hierarchy of outcomes:
W vs 3* P5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 3* P5 by 2 poss.
W vs 3* P5 by 1 poss.
W vs 2* P5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 2* P5 by 2 poss.
W vs 2* P5 by 1 poss.
W vs 1* P5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 3* G5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 1* P5 by 2 poss.
W vs 3* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 1* P5 by 1 poss.
W vs 3* G5 by 1 poss.
W vs 2* G5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 2* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 2* G5 by 1 poss
W vs 1* G5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 1* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 1* G5 by 1 poss.
-----------------------------------I'd argue losing to a good P5 is "better" than here, but I digress
L vs 3* P5 by 1 poss.
L vs 3* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 3* P5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 1 poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 1* P5 by 1 poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 1* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 1* P5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 3+ poss.





Remember that:
3* = a team that is at least 2 games over .500 in their conference
2* = a team that is a game above or below .500 or at-.500 in their conference
1* = a team that is 2 or more games below .500 in their conference


Army's overall record is used, as an independent, and as G5.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 01:21:38 AM »
Okay, so here's where the Sooners' and Buckeyes' outcomes are:




W vs 3* P5 by 3+ poss. -----------------------OSU (UM,NW)
W vs 3* P5 by 2 poss.------OU (ISU,Tex)
W vs 3* P5 by 1 poss.------OU (WV)------------OSU (PSU)
W vs 2* P5 by 3+ poss.------OU (Bay,TCU)-------OSU(MSU)
W vs 2* P5 by 2 poss.------------------------------OSU (TCU)
W vs 2* P5 by 1 poss.
W vs 1* P5 by 3+ poss.----OU (UCLA,KSU)-------OSU (OrSt, RU, IU)
W vs 3* G5 by 3+ poss.------------------------OSU (Tul)
W vs 1* P5 by 2 poss.-----OU (KU)---------------OSU (Minn)
W vs 3* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 1* P5 by 1 poss.-----OU (TTU, OkSt)----------OSU (UNL, UMd)
W vs 3* G5 by 1 poss.-----OU (Army)
W vs 2* G5 by 3+ poss.
W vs 2* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 2* G5 by 1 poss
W vs 1* G5 by 3+ poss.------OU (FAU)
W vs 1* G5 by 2 poss.
W vs 1* G5 by 1 poss.
-----------------------------------
L vs 3* P5 by 1 poss.-------OU (Tex)
L vs 3* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 3* P5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 1 poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 2* P5 by 3+ poss.--------------------------OSU (Pur)
L vs 1* P5 by 1 poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 1* P5 by 2 poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 1* P5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 3* G5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 2* G5 by 3+ poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 1 poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 2 poss.
L vs 1* G5 by 3+ poss.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2018, 01:30:17 AM »
If it's hard to understand, Ohio State has the best 2 wins (Michigan, N'Western).  They also have the worst loss (Purdue).  Oklahoma has the next 3 least-impressive outcomes, though (L vs Texas, W over FAU and Army).  



There are 36 levels on the hierarchy, so like the points system in the AP poll, we could see which team's outcomes yields the most points:
Oklahoma = 35+35+34+33+33+30+30+28+26+26+25+21+18
Ohio State = 36+36+34+33+32+30+30+30+29+28+26+26+13




OU = 374
OSU = 383



I would rank OSU over OU.  And this is a big, fat support as to why.  Yes, it assumes P5 conferences are equal.  No, it doesn't count home or away.  And no, it doesn't differentiate the elite teams. But it's a quick-n-dirty way to value each outcome.



And OU's defense sucks. :96:
« Last Edit: December 02, 2018, 01:37:42 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2018, 01:36:27 AM »
Again, for clarity:
3* = good
2* = average
1* = bad
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2018, 01:39:31 AM »
36 outcomes:
2x (W or L)
3x (3* or 2* or 1*)
2x (P5 or G5)
3x (3+ possession game, 2 poss, or 1 poss)



2 x 3 x 2 x 3 = 36 possibilities
« Last Edit: December 02, 2018, 09:03:55 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2018, 05:47:30 AM »
I think, in part, of which team I'd rather face, and it would be Ohio State rather than OU.

I think OU gives Bama problems.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2018, 07:30:36 AM »
I don't understand it but I fully support it
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bayareabadger

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2018, 09:16:06 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 02, 2018, 01:30:17 AM
If it's hard to understand, Ohio State has the best 2 wins (Michigan, N'Western).  They also have the worst loss (Purdue).  Oklahoma has the next 3 least-impressive outcomes, though (L vs Texas, W over FAU and Army).  



There are 36 levels on the hierarchy, so like the points system in the AP poll, we could see which team's outcomes yields the most points:
Oklahoma = 35+35+34+33+33+30+30+28+26+26+25+21+18
Ohio State = 36+36+34+33+32+30+30+30+29+28+26+26+13




OU = 374
OSU = 383



I would rank OSU over OU.  And this is a big, fat support as to why.  Yes, it assumes P5 conferences are equal.  No, it doesn't count home or away.  And no, it doesn't differentiate the elite teams. But it's a quick-n-dirty way to value each outcome.



And OU's defense sucks. :96:
This is not to say things one way or another, but for a full record, OSU’s defense also very much sucks. 
I think the OSU case is sneaky a little better. For some reason, I’d rather see OU, though Haskins trying to make a shootout with Bama would be just fine. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2018, 09:48:31 AM »
I think OSU is better, but I also think OU has the better overall resume. The WTF losses are keeping OSU out of the final four.
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FearlessF

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2018, 10:02:25 AM »
I lean to OU, but it's very close

Not only the bad loss to Purdue, but the Maryland game hurts the Buckeyes in my opinion

Bucks vs Michigan is more impressive than any Sooner victory

I'd like to see these two teams on the same field
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FearlessF

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2018, 10:04:24 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 02, 2018, 01:06:57 AM
I'll list the entire hierarchy, then slide in the OU and OSU schedules and see what we get.  Yes, I'm a nerd.
thanks for crunching the numbers, nerd
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FearlessF

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2018, 10:06:14 AM »
and interesting, I haven't heard the talking heads mutter the name: Notre Dame

no sense talking about Notre Dame's resume.  They are in with their shiny helmet and undefeated season
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847badgerfan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2018, 10:10:00 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2018, 10:06:14 AM
and interesting, I haven't heard the talking heads mutter the name: Notre Dame

no sense talking about Notre Dame's resume.  They are in with their shiny helmet and undefeated season
Best win is a close one in home night game against Michigan.
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