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Topic: Oklahoma vs Ohio State

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MrNubbz

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #28 on: December 02, 2018, 11:24:08 AM »
I'd like to know exactly but I think it's more around the lines of 60-70%.The Sharps(betting syndicates) usually win as much as the house but the betting public usually takes a bath
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MrNubbz

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2018, 11:24:50 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2018, 11:22:28 AM
line is set to encourage balanced wagers, not to determine the outcome of the game
Ed Zachery
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #30 on: December 02, 2018, 11:41:42 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2018, 11:22:28 AM
if they balance the wagers by adjusting the line
line is set to encourage balanced wagers, not to determine the outcome of the game
Right, which is the same as getting the consensus of thousands of informed, interested people.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #31 on: December 02, 2018, 11:44:35 AM »
We're about to find out.  I think the top four will be "boring" and obvious, nothing tricky.

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #32 on: December 02, 2018, 11:44:43 AM »
The "Georgia is one of the 4 best teams" idea isn't an argument for them to be included in the playoff. It's to show the committee and it's claim to let the 4 best in is BS.  Same as the Heisman claiming to go to the most outstanding football player.



The committee should be honest and say it'll include the P5 teams with the best record as long as they thought highly of them from the start of the season.  Just as the Heisman should change it to the best skill position player on a top team, but almost always the QB of a helmet team.



But honestly isn't a priority, it seems.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #33 on: December 02, 2018, 01:30:45 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 02, 2018, 11:24:08 AM
I'd like to know exactly but I think it's more around the lines of 60-70%.The Sharps(betting syndicates) usually win as much as the house but the betting public usually takes a bath
I tracked my picks for a year ATS back before I had kids and had more time to pay attention to CFB teams outside of Purdue. I was 62.5% ATS. All you need is >55%. 
I had a few rules: no Purdue or ND (bias), don't bet the first two weeks (don't know what teams really are until week 3 or so), betting every B1G game and a few others where I saw something wrong with the line. 
I ran the numbers and if I had been betting $100/game, I would have ended up making I think around $1200 over the course of the season. Which wasn't enough to risk ~$800/week over 13 weeks. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #34 on: December 02, 2018, 11:24:46 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 02, 2018, 01:30:17 AM
If it's hard to understand, Ohio State has the best 2 wins (Michigan, N'Western).  They also have the worst loss (Purdue).  Oklahoma has the next 3 least-impressive outcomes, though (L vs Texas, W over FAU and Army).  



There are 36 levels on the hierarchy, so like the points system in the AP poll, we could see which team's outcomes yields the most points:
Oklahoma = 35+35+34+33+33+30+30+28+26+26+25+21+18
Ohio State = 36+36+34+33+32+30+30+30+29+28+26+26+13




OU = 374
OSU = 383



I would rank OSU over OU.  And this is a big, fat support as to why.  Yes, it assumes P5 conferences are equal.  No, it doesn't count home or away.  And no, it doesn't differentiate the elite teams. But it's a quick-n-dirty way to value each outcome.



And OU's defense sucks. :96:
     
I looked at Georgia with this method:
33+29+32+30+30+16+36+36+30+21+36+18 = 347     Well behind both OU and OSU.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Oklahoma vs Ohio State
« Reply #35 on: December 03, 2018, 10:13:15 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on December 02, 2018, 10:48:56 AM
I'm not certain but my guess is because OU has a higher average per opponent, but OSU has a better opponent (Michigan) than any team OU faced.  The calculation is more about the chances of having a particular record against the particular schedule, and so having a very strong team on the schedule throws it towards that schedule.  In other words, beating several decent teams and one great team is "stronger" than beating several decent to good teams.
Exactly.
SoS is basically the average strength of your opponents . SoR is chance of attaining a given record against a given slate of opponents. 
SoR effectively corrects for something @ELA  complained about for years with the old RPI formula in basketball,  namely:
For SoS purposes, playing #99 and #101 is equal to playing #1 and #199 but you obviously have a much better chance of losing a game if you play 1/199 than if you play 99/101.
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