header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Odds we have a football season poll

 (Read 68083 times)

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20274
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #658 on: August 20, 2020, 12:50:08 AM »
The less Clay Travis we have around here the better.

Hawkinole

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2218
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #659 on: August 20, 2020, 01:01:12 AM »
I think the people waiting for a player to die so they can blame someone for it is gross.
I believe, I believe, I am a natural born believer . . . I believe.
I took that from an old folk song. All kidding aside, OrangeAfro's calculations, or similar ones, are the calculations leading to the deferment of the football season by the Ivy League, most of D-III, the Pac-12, and Big Ten, and most of FCS. 
Notre Dame has already gone from in-person learning to remote learning. That didn't take long. But the football team hasn't done so. I happen to believe that there is such close contact in football not only on plays but when 100 players come together to hoot and holler the mascot's name, that his calculations are close to being correct. That said, if the season is deferred to January, but a vaccine doesn't come out until March, what is the point of deferring only until January?
A part of me thinks it will be interesting to watch the Hawkeyes play the Buckeyes in the UNI-Dome this January (on television), but that's probably not going to happen because there will be no vaccine, yet.

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13053
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #660 on: August 20, 2020, 06:56:53 AM »
In this case, we're referring to Fields?
Yes

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13053
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #661 on: August 20, 2020, 07:19:24 AM »
Panic reactions are nonsensical with this, I agree.  It's always been simple math. 

You want college football to happen like there was no pandemic, we don't have to fret or fuss, just play with the numbers.
70 scholarship players x 130 FBS teams = 9,100 players + other players, coaches, medical staff, etc.  Plus FCS, Division II, Division III, NAIA, etc.

Let's stick to the smallest number - 9,100.  If there's a 0.05% death rate, that's 46 players.  Dead.  Not 5%, one-half of a percent.  Let's say these are young, stud athletes and it's "only" one-tenth of a percent that die...that's 9 dead players.

Is that worth it?  We get our memories and stats and glory and 9 of the players die.  Fair trade? 

.05 is too high.  It may be on target for that age group with comorbidities (which is something to look at, for this group sickle cell, not sure if asthma is considered a comorbidity or not).  But without them we are looking at something a lot lower, between .0003 and .00004.  So few young people from that group have died as to make it difficult to calculate.  

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6045
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #662 on: August 20, 2020, 07:54:49 AM »
It seems clear that young people have much less risk of dying of COVID-19 than their elders do.

But the problem is that those young people are not just around their fellow yoots.  They are around their parents, maybe their grandparents, and their college professors who, in some cases, are old enough to be their grandparents.

So the young people who feel nearly invulnerable are nevertheless potential spreaders to people who have much higher probabilities of dying from the virus.  They may disregard the risk to themselves.  But they don't have the right to disregard the risk they can pose to others.
Play Like a Champion Today

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13053
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #663 on: August 20, 2020, 08:00:10 AM »
It seems clear that young people have much less risk of dying of COVID-19 than their elders do.

But the problem is that those young people are not just around their fellow yoots.  They are around their parents, maybe their grandparents, and their college professors who, in some cases, are old enough to be their grandparents.

So the young people who feel nearly invulnerable are nevertheless potential spreaders to people who have much higher probabilities of dying from the virus.  They may disregard the risk to themselves.  But they don't have the right to disregard the risk they can pose to others.
I mean, yes, true, though it does bring up an ethical conundrum - how much right does one group of people (those with a high risk of dying) to restrict another group (those with very low to zero risk).  You can make a pretty good argument that young people are bearing the most of the weight of the restriction while seeing the least benefit.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #664 on: August 20, 2020, 09:05:23 AM »
So, August 20 now, and the inference is that the SEC/ACC/B12 is going to give this a go, right?

We've had some major Universities go to on line teaching now because of outbreaks.  Are students remaining on campus for that?

Is this going to work at all?  One game and done?  Two?  Three?  Ten?


Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 11228
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #665 on: August 20, 2020, 09:20:31 AM »
It seems clear that young people have much less risk of dying of COVID-19 than their elders do.

But the problem is that those young people are not just around their fellow yoots.  They are around their parents, maybe their grandparents, and their college professors who, in some cases, are old enough to be their grandparents.

So the young people who feel nearly invulnerable are nevertheless potential spreaders to people who have much higher probabilities of dying from the virus.  They may disregard the risk to themselves.  But they don't have the right to disregard the risk they can pose to others.


Meanwhile the HS athletes, the ones that actually DO live with their parents, they can play. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37369
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #666 on: August 20, 2020, 10:34:54 AM »
So, August 20 now, and the inference is that the SEC/ACC/B12 is going to give this a go, right?

We've had some major Universities go to on line teaching now because of outbreaks.  Are students remaining on campus for that?

Is this going to work at all?  One game and done?  Two?  Three?  Ten?


I'm willing to have a conference or 2 give this experiment a try.

See the results.  It's more data if nothing else.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71094
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #667 on: August 20, 2020, 10:42:30 AM »
Yeah, I'd be watching no doubt.  I just don't want to be disappointed if they start it up and cancel it after 1-2-3 games.

We'll see, and hope for the best.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37369
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #668 on: August 20, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
I don't want to be disappointed, but life is full of that

especially this year

I'm hoping it goes much better than expected and the Big Ten Commish is very sorry

a season starting in January???
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25026
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #669 on: August 20, 2020, 12:42:08 PM »
The article I took this from did not name the parent. There are other letters from other parents too.

https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/2020/8/19/21374353/wisconsin-badgers-football-cancelled-season-parents-reaction-big-ten-kevin-warren


As a parent I believe the Badger Football program has responded to COVID-19 in such a thorough and detailed way that I am very optimistic that the football season can safely take place. Our players and staff know they CANNOT get sick for this season to happen, so their extreme effort to remain healthy has been diligent and 24/7. The community should acknowledge and be grateful that these student-athletes/staff are working so hard, every day, to stay well in our community. The general population doesn’t realize the relentless work involved so they really have no right to vilify these players or try to negatively influence the B1G season.

As a Badger parent I get updates via virtual parent meetings on the ever-evolving, ever-improving football safety protocols and I believe the program will continue to take the necessary critical steps to keep my son safe. We trust our Badger coaches and staff, and my son knows he has a voice on the team and can speak openly. He also knows he can opt out of playing at anytime. My son is a smart student and an adult capable of making his own decision, and he wants to play. He is well-read on COVID-19 and understands the MINUSCULE risks for his age group/excellent physical health. I’m assured too, as the CDC website shows the 0-24 y/o COVID death rate is virtually non-existent, and readings have shown how rare myocarditis is and that playing football does not cause this condition.

No one can say whether shutting down football would ensure that these athletes won’t get COVID-19…in fact, I’d argue that having a football season will help ensure players STAY WELL. Most students will never try as hard as these athletes to NOT contract COVID-19. And with regular COVID testing, and under the care of a watchful bevy of trainers, medical personnel and coaches, I know my son will be safer on this team then free in the community. These athletes know they have everything to lose if they bring COVID-19 to their team and are all dedicated to team health!

I’d argue that the general student population is more likely to get players sick, than the other way around. Rarely will asymptomatic students know they have COVID-19, but these players are regularly tested and would be quickly alerted and quarantined. It’s hypocritical that the regular community is still free to frequent restaurants, shopping malls, grocery stores, gyms, and group get-togethers, but believe they somehow have the right to weigh in on what is a proper risk for my son’s team. That’s really unfair.

The university should take this opportunity to utilize these athletes as influencers, showcasing their efforts and dedication to staying COVID-free. This could be very compelling and helpful to keeping the student body healthy and on campus.

These players are willing to do whatever is asked of them so they can play. For some (many?), football is their career of choice and this succession of football seasons is their only chance to accomplish their lifelong goal. These athletes have trained and sacrificed for so many years to get to this moment…it is grossly unfair for this to be ripped away while most others in our community demand and receive) their right to education or work, even with the risk of contracting COVID.

People also need to realize that this is about money and the Madison economy too. I’m no expert but I’ve read that Badger Football is a $60M yearly business that funds most of the University of Wisconsin Athletic programs. I’m told Badger Football also bring in roughly $100M/year in local revenue for local businesses owners. Cancelling football will devastate our university, our student athletic programs, local businesses and unemployment numbers for years to come.

I am confident we can work together to insure our athletes safety while still protecting the vulnerable community. This team is dedicated to being safe and COVID-free and I trust the football program and they believe they can do this safely. The NCAA, B1G organization, athletic directors, coaches, team doctors, and trainers have so many smart people dedicated to this…We can figure this out. On, Wisconsin!


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37369
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #670 on: August 20, 2020, 12:44:40 PM »
if coaches and parents and players can all understand this, why can't administrators and commissioners and AfroMan ?

I know the answer.........
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12128
  • Liked:
Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #671 on: August 20, 2020, 01:08:47 PM »

I’d argue that the general student population is more likely to get players sick, than the other way around. Rarely will asymptomatic students know they have COVID-19, but these players are regularly tested and would be quickly alerted and quarantined. It’s hypocritical that the regular community is still free to frequent restaurants, shopping malls, grocery stores, gyms, and group get-togethers, but believe they somehow have the right to weigh in on what is a proper risk for my son’s team. That’s really unfair.

This is the one bit that I completely disagree with. 

The regular community has no real voice on it. In fact, many of them probably still want the team to play, because they've been jonesin' for sports just like everyone else.

The people who matter are the ones who voted--the university Presidents likely at the behest of their Boards of Directors. 

"The regular community" point brought up here is just a red herring. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.