Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

There's already more than 4 levels, with Div II, III, and even NAIA (if it still exists).  The number of levels growing is not an issue.

it still exits - Morningside College from Sioux City IA


Morningside Wins Third NAIA National Championship in Last Four Years
Dec 18, 2021 
DURHAM, N.C.—Morningside overcame two different seven-point deficits and three turnovers to score the final 17 points of the NAIA Football National Championship to win its third title in four years.

The Mustangs finished the year with a perfect 14-0 record after defeating Grand View 38-28.

“It was tough, but the guys kept playing,” said coach Steve Ryan. “We struggled with turnovers in the first half and our defense came out and played lights-out in the second half.”

Grand View (14-1) forced a three-and-out to start the third quarter, then blocked the punt to take over at the Morningside 5-yard line. Ali Scott’s second touchdown run of the game put the Vikings up 28-21 with 12:25 left in the third.

Morningside used a 15-play, 82-yard drive that chewed up 6:25 of the third quarter to tie the game at 28 on Anthony Sims’ third touchdown run of the game from four yards out.

Sims was the Offensive Player of the Game finishing with 145 rushing yards on 27 carries.

So do you guys think the number of teams in any given season that have a reasonable chance at the national championship has varied greatly?  Say....early 80s, when there were so many stronger independent teams......if we'd say there's only around 40-50 teams today (basically P5 teams that if they went undefeated, they'd be a top 2 or top 4 team, so not Wake Forest or Kansas, etc).  
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Were there more in 1982?  Fewer?  What about 1973?  I mean shit, Penn State went undefeated 4 times without a NC.  I realize that program increased in prestige over time, but still.  There were fewer P5 programs outside of the independents, if that makes sense.....smaller conferences is probably more accurate.
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Obviously, each individual season can be luck of the draw.  In 1983, Miami happens to have a rogue wave 10-1 season.  Luckily, that got them up to 5th in the polls.  And they get a shot vs #1.  They actually win, and thanks to some crazy shit above them in the polls, they wind up #1.  How many other seasons could that have happened?  So going back far enough, Miami wouldnt have had a reasonable shot.....but their first actuality came in an unreasonable way.  I guess I"m going off on a tangent there.....
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Back to the question - is the 40-50 number of teams with a real shot at the NC fairly static or is it widely fluid?  Does it edge one way or the other over time?  

I'm confused by the bottom part.

You're saying that if Wake or Kansas went 13-0, they wouldn't be top-4 teams?

In an average year, where there's 4+ undefeated or 1-loss helmet teams, no, I don't think they would.
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2014 Committee Ranking:  
12-1 Bama
12-1 Oregon
13-0 FSU
12-1 Ohio St
11-1 Baylor
11-1 TCU
So say Wake goes 13-0.  IF, IF they're ranked above a 12-1 defending NC FSU, they're not ahead of 12-1 OSU.  Are they ahead of the Big 12 pair, given that those 2 were top 13 teams in the committee's initial ranking?
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2015 
13-0 Clemson
12-1 Bama
12-1 MSU
11-1 OU
12-1 Iowa
11-2 Stanford
11-1 Ohio St
Where is a 13-0 Wake ranked here?  I don't think they get ahead of a 12-1 Clemson, even with a h2h win over them.  
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I could be absolutely wrong, but I'm afraid I'm not.  Again, this is about having a realistic, >50% chance at a NC if you have a special season.  

In an average year, where there's 4+ undefeated or 1-loss helmet teams, no, I don't think they would.
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2014 Committee Ranking: 
12-1 Bama
12-1 Oregon
13-0 FSU
12-1 Ohio St
11-1 Baylor
11-1 TCU
So say Wake goes 13-0.  IF, IF they're ranked above a 12-1 defending NC FSU, they're not ahead of 12-1 OSU.  Are they ahead of the Big 12 pair, given that those 2 were top 13 teams in the committee's initial ranking?
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2015
13-0 Clemson
12-1 Bama
12-1 MSU
11-1 OU
12-1 Iowa
11-2 Stanford
11-1 Ohio St
Where is a 13-0 Wake ranked here?  I don't think they get ahead of a 12-1 Clemson, even with a h2h win over them. 
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I could be absolutely wrong, but I'm afraid I'm not.  Again, this is about having a realistic, >50% chance at a NC if you have a special season. 

Yeah, they're not keeping out a 13-0 P5 conference champ so four one-loss teams can go to the playoff. Pretending that's the case is deeply silly. 

Especially when one of those conference champs is the team they beat to win the conference champ. In the first case, FSU is out. That team was hanging on by a thread. In the second one, Clemson would've been out, which woulda been rough, as we all kinda knew they were better than OU, but them's the breaks. 

In the modern era, if you win a P5 conference with no losses, you'll go to the playoff. And in the old era, if you won a P6 conference with no losses, you were at the mercy of how many undefeated teams there were. That very likely won't change. 

Kansas would have made it under the two team format if they didn't blow the Mizzou game.

I'm not sure 2007 should be an example of anything.

I'm not sure 2007 should be an example of anything.

Why not? It proves that the scenario can happen, and that It happened as recently as 2007.

It is useful to explore the possibilities, and to shine a spotlight on the general ass hattery of a guy suggesting that a team can't make a four team field when they almost made a two team field in the not too distant past.