48-17. 70-31. 59-24. 38-17. Those are 4 of the scores Wisconsin has won by in winning 6 of 7 matchups as Big Ten foes, in what ideally is the preeminent West Division matchup. All of those Nebraska teams were substantially better than what this one has shown thus far. There is some silver lining, the offense is maybe starting to figure things out. After getting completely shut down two weeks ago in Ann Arbor, Nebraska was never really a threat to beat Purdue, but they did put up 582 yards of offense and 28 points. Considering they didn't even hit 100 yards of offense against Michigan until garbage time, that is a step forward. The problem is that's a Purdue defense that is giving up on average 447 yards per game, second worst in the Big Ten. By Wisconsin standards though, this defense is also very underwhelming, giving up 5.5 yards per play, and generating a Big Ten low 3 sacks, good for 2nd fewest in the FBS, for only 13 yards lost, an FBS worst. Everything broke down against Michigan because the Huskers offensive line was so badly overmatched. It seems odd to say this about a Wisconsin team, but here Nebraska may not be. It's also clear how vital Adrian Martinez is to everything this offense does. He wasn't 100% against Michigan, but he looked to be at least close last week. 74% of the Cornhuskers' snaps were either Martinez passes or runs, and he accounted for 414 yards. Some other skill position players finally showed up too. Tailback Devine Ozigbo had a career high 170 rushing yards, and JD Spielman finally looked like the preseason All-Big Ten player he was. But for all the good they showed last week, this is still a team two weeks removed from a 50 point beatdown from Michigan, and was still trailing Purdue by 21 points at home in the 4th quarter. The offensive transition was supposed to take some time, but concerning is just how bad the defense has been. They are last in the conference in scoring defense, although the advanced numbers do look a bit better. Offenses are too good now to rely on consistently forcing punts, and Nebraska's simply isn't creating turnovers, a Big Ten low of 3, which is why they've allowed the most red zone trip, red zone scores, and red zone touchdowns. Teams are stacking drives on them, which is why they are also last in the conference in time of possession, as the only team averaging under 28 minutes per game. They themselves are not extending drives, last in the conference in third down conversions (32.1%) and 4th down conversions (14.3%). In what was clearly a transitioning year, Nebraska needed to find the hidden yardage to turn from a 4ish win team into a 5-6 win team and sneak into a bowl. Instead they are giving away those yards, which has dropped them from the bad side of mediocre to just plain bad. Those things are also correctable, and enough other pieces are there if they do. The problem is night games in Madison are typically not the place to correct ongoing mistakes. Wisconsin needs to use this to fix some things going forward. The trench play is not what we've come to expect from Wisconsin, which might be a high bar when PFF has graded them as the top offensive line in the Big Ten to date. But as already addressed the defensive line has been underwhelming, and in pass blocking a combination of underperformance by the tackles, and Hornibrook holding the ball too long has led to a sack rate of 6.93%. Wisconsin survived in Iowa City, in a game where they were outplayed for most of the game, and now they are in the driver's seat, once again, in the Big Ten West. They've had two weeks to fix their issues, and this is their last dry run before a trip to Ann Arbor next weekend which will determine if this is another Conference Championship Game participant year, or something more. |