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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)

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ohio1317

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Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
« on: October 08, 2018, 12:02:27 AM »
Teams with 1st loss Week 6:
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Kentucky

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
Marshall
Indiana
Virginia Tech
Auburn
Maryland
Michigan State
Boston College
Oklahoma State
Stanford
Missouri
Syracuse
Akron
Boise State
Minnesota
Louisiana Tech
California

Teams with 1st win Week 6:
none

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
7: Notre Dame, Colorado, UCF/South Florida/Cincinnati, Ohio State, Clemson/North Carolina State, West Virginia, Alabama/Georgia

Week 6 Thoughts:
-And then there were 11. For the first time this year the percent of undefeated to lose was not in 30%s. Also for the first time, all of our remaining unbeaten teams are now ranked with Cincinnati and South Florida now in.

-Biggest news of the weekend was almost certainly Oklahoma losing the close game to Texas in the Red River Shootout. That changes the narrative of the Big 12 race a lot. Texas becomes a major factor again, at least for now, in addition to the expected favorites of Oklahoma and West Virginia. Just as important from a national standpoint though, it might be making getting a Big 12 team in the playoff bowls more difficult. Notre Dame is deeply in the race and 2 SEC teams in last year did well. Together that means there might less room for a 1-loss conference champ than would be expected. This isn’t a unique issue to the Big 12 at all, but their odds took a bigger hit than most this weekend simply because their favorite to win the conference lost.

-The Group of 5 races continues to narrow. The remaining 3 unbeatens in the American (Cincinnati, South Florida, and Central Florida) all won which keeps them in control of their destiny. Any of them (or current 1-loss Houston) will also have a strong argument if they finish with 1-loss. The biggest competitor for the spot is the Mountain West. In the Mountain West this week, we saw Utah State beat in-state rival BYU and San Diego State take down Boise State. I think that keeps them and other remaining 1-loss teams in the Mountain West in the conversation against a 1-loss American team. Our remaining six 1-loss teams in the Sun Belt, MAC, and Conference USA likely need at least 2 losses from the ultimate champs of the American and Mountain West and might need more. The only possible exception to that I see is UAB (as winning out would include a win at Texas A&M).

Week 7 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games this week: undefeated Georgia @ 1-loss LSU, Minnesota @ undefeated Ohio State, Pitt @ undefeated Notre Dame, undefeated Central Florida @ Memphis, undefeated South Florida @ Tulsa, Missouri @ undefeated Alabama, undefeated West Virginia @ Iowa State, and undefeated Colorado @ USC. Clemson, North Carolina State, and Cincinnati have byes.

-Biggest game in that group has to be Georgia @ LSU.  LSU has had a great season, but having any chance at either national or SEC title likely requires winning this week.  Georgia can probably recover from a loss here, but margin for error would disappear.

-Our winless teams play in the following: Winless Nebraska at Northwestern, Army @ winless San Jose State, winless UCLA @ Cal

-Other notable games for these lists:
1-loss Wisconsin at 1-loss Michigan: Neither out of conference race with a loss, but both probably out of playoff bowl contention with a 2nd loss.

-1-loss Washington @ 1-loss Oregon: These might well be the best 2 teams in the conference. Oregon blew a late lead vs. Stanford and will likely be out of conference race with a loss. Washington probably won’t be out of conference race but will certainly be out of national title chase with a loss.

 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, independents: 1, total: 11

Clemson
North Carolina State
Colorado
Cincinnati
South Florida
West Virginia
Ohio State
Central Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Notre Dame
 
 1-Loss Teams:
ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 4, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 0, total: 25
Miami (FL)
Houston
Texas
Michigan
Wisconsin
UAB
Utah State
Hawaii
Fresno State
San Diego State
Washington
Florida
Georgia Southern
Troy
Appalachian State
Oregon
Washington State
Iowa
Penn State
Duke
Buffalo
North Texas
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Kentucky


Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, total: 4
Nebraska
UTEP
San Jose State
UCLA
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 12:12:18 AM by ohio1317 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2018, 07:01:45 AM »
Nice analysis.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2018, 07:20:28 AM »
Amazing that NC St and Colorado are still chugging along. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 7)
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2018, 05:57:46 PM »
Undefeated and one-loss teams by AP ranking:
  • #1, 6-0 Bama
  • #2, 6-0 Georgia
  • #3, 6-0 Ohio State
  • #4, 6-0 Clemson
  • #5, 6-0 Notre Dame
  • #6, 5-0 WVU
  • #7, 5-1 Washington
  • #8, 4-1 Penn State
  • #9, 5-1 Texas
  • #10, 5-0 UCF
  • #11, 5-1 Oklahoma
  • #12, 5-1 Michigan
  • #13, 5-1 LSU
  • #14, 5-1 Florida
  • #15, 4-1 Wisconsin
  • #16, 5-1 Miami, FL
  • #17, 4-1 Oregon
  • #18, 5-1 Kentucky
  • #19, 5-0 Colorado
  • #20, 5-0 NCST
  • #23, 5-0 UCF
  • #25, 6-0 Cincy
  • #26 (based on "others receiving votes), 4-1 Iowa
  • #28, 5-1 WSU
  • #29, 4-1 SDSU
  • #31, 3-1 Appalachian State
  • #32, 4-1 Utah State
  • #35, 6-1 Hawaii
  • no votes, 4-1 Houston
  • no votes, 4-1 UAB
  • no votes, 4-1 FresnoSt
  • no votes, 4-1 GaSouthern
  • no votes, 5-1 Troy
  • no votes, 4-1 Dook
  • no votes, 5-1 Buffalo
  • no votes, 5-1 NoTx

So in total 22 of the 36 undefeated and 1-loss teams are ranked.  An additional six for a total of 28 of the 36 have votes leaving just eight 1-loss teams without votes.  

The unranked teams in this group:
  • 4-1 Iowa lost at home to #15 Wisconsin.  They should win their next two (@IU, vs UMD) so they'll likely be ranked as soon as next week.  
  • 4-1 Washington State lost a close game at USC.  They host #17 Oregon this week so after that they'll either be ranked or no longer a 1-loss team.  
  • 4-1 SDSU lost to Stanford to open the season.  They have no more scheduled games against ranked opponents but they do play two other teams on this list (Fresno and Hawaii) in November.  They will not remain 1-loss and unranked forever.  
  • 3-1 Appalachian State lost in OT at PSU to open the season.  They have no scheduled games against ranked opponents but they do play two other teams on this list (GaSouthern and Troy).  They will not remain 1-loss and unranked forever.  
  • 4-1 Utah State lost their opener at Michigan State by a TD.  They have no more scheduled games against ranked opponents but they do play another team on this list (Hawaii) in early November.  They will not remain 1-loss and unranked forever.  
  • 6-1 Hawaii lost by a TD at Army.  They do not have any scheduled games against ranked teams and two weeks ago they nearly lost to woeful SJSU.  They have two games in November against other teams on this list (Fresno and SDSU).  They will not remain 1-loss and unranked forever.  
  • 4-1 Houston lost to unranked TTech by two TD's.  They host #23 USF in a couple weeks.  They probably can't get past that game without either picking up a second loss or getting ranked.   
  • 4-1 UAB lost badly at unranked Coastal Carolina.  Their only scheduled game against a ranked opponent is November 17 against aTm.  They do play NoTx (also on this list) in two weeks.  
  • 4-1 FresnoSt lost by a TD at Minnesota.  They do not have any ranked teams on their schedule but they do play two other teams on this list (Hawaii and SDSU).  
  • 4-1 GaSouthern lost badly at #2 Clemson.  They do not have any remaining scheduled games against ranked opponents.  They do, however, play two other teams on this list (ApSt and Troy) including one in less than two weeks.  
  • 5-1 Troy lost badly to unranked BoiseSt.  They do not have any remaining scheduled games against ranked opponents.  They do, however, play two teams on this list (GaSO and ApSt).  
  • 4-1 Dook lost badly at home to unranked VaTech.  They have #16 Miami, FL and #4 Clemson on the schedule.  
  • 5-1 Buffalo lost badly to Army.  They do not have any games scheduled against ranked opponents, nor do they play any of the other teams on this list, nor could they even in the MACCG.  
  • 5-1 NoTx lost close at home to Louisiana Tech.  They do not have any scheduled games against ranked opponents but they do play another team on this list (UAB).  

 

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