Michigan State (1-4, 3-5) at #4 Michigan (5-0, 8-0) Post Game

[FearlessF]

apparently, michigan isn't the 6th loss

[Mdot21]

You can actually just pick this game based on whether MSU is good or not.  The last time Michigan beat a Michigan State team that finished with fewer than 6 losses?  2003, when MSU was a stellar 8-5.

Since then, over 18 seasons, MSU has finished with 5 or fewer losses exactly half the time.

When MSU has 5 or fewer losses: MSU 9-0
When MSU has 6 or more losses: UM 8-1

MSU would need QUITE the turnaround to finish with fewer than 6 losses

how many losses has Michigan had in some of those seasons? I seem to remember RichRod and Hoke having some pretty bad teams too lol. 

[Mdot21]

apparently, michigan isn't the 6th loss0

Hey! don't jinx them my dude....

[ELA]

how many losses has Michigan had in some of those seasons? I seem to remember RichRod and Hoke having some pretty bad teams too lol.

Yeah, but if you flip it, MSU has plenty of wins over decent UM teams.

Doing the same time period:

UM with 5 or fewer losses: UM 8-5
UM with 6 or more losses: MSU 5-0

So yes, a bad Michigan can't beat MSU, but MSU has beaten multiple decent to good UM teams, while UM hasn't beaten a an MSU team with fewer than 5 losses in 20 years.

[Brutus Buckeye]

You can actually just pick this game based on whether MSU is good or not.  The last time Michigan beat a Michigan State team that finished with fewer than 6 losses?  2003, when MSU was a stellar 8-5.

Since then, over 18 seasons, MSU has finished with 5 or fewer losses exactly half the time.

When MSU has 5 or fewer losses: MSU 9-0
When MSU has 6 or more losses: UM 8-1

MSU would need QUITE the turnaround to finish with fewer than 6 losses

Big wins are what trigger such turnarounds. 

Like 2016 PSU, who was a completely different team after knocking off OSU. 

[Mdot21]

Big wins are what trigger such turnarounds.

Like 2016 PSU, who was a completely different team after knocking off OSU.

not to mention- that 2016 PSU that knocked off Ohio State had a similar horror show earlier that year in Ann Arbor to the one they just had. Believe Michigan merc'd Penn State 49-7 that year. That Penn State team that lost by 42 points in Ann Arbor wound up beating Ohio State and winning the B1G. Could happen again. Doubtful. But it could. Franklin is 0-10 vs Top 10 teams since that season. 

[ELA]

Franklin is 0-10 vs Top 10 teams since that season.

I heard 2 stats that I have not confirmed, going into the White Out.
That Penn State was like 8-7 in White Out games, it's not some massive advantage (although it would be 9-7 now)
And that in 4 of the last 5 seasons PSU lost their 1st and 2nd games in back to back weeks

So maybe Penn State is breaking the mold in 2022.  Granted, is this the thread?

[Mdot21]

Advanced Stats has Michigan winning 36-13, with a win probability of 95%. 


https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1584901684005720064?s=20&t=msSANuhPyvkZRUJZtkCdaQ

[Mdot21]

https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1584939623267979265?s=20&t=cGPTvIU-kj5DxFQ00_zltQ

[ELA]

Just when I reach a point where I know UM is going to roll us, and I'm fine with it, Taylor Lewan just reminds me of what an absolute piece of shit he is

[Temp430]

How can you ever be fine with Michigan rolling Sparty?   I think Michigan can win this game handily but I'm paranoid.  I think my paranoia dates back to 1978 and sitting in the student section of Michigan Stadium watching unranked Sparty and Kirk Gibson upset my #5 Wolverines. 

[ELA]

Michigan is the much better team this year.  We actualyl have a Halloween party Saturday night, so unless it's on there, which it won't be, I probably won't even watch it

[Mdot21]

shaping up to be a huge recruiting weekend for Michigan. Just hope they don't sh*t the bed in the fkn game. They could come out of this one with some big time 'crootin momentum with a big win.

2025 5* QB Bryce Underwood will in the house. Could just wind up being a Michigan-MSU battle for his LOI. The state of Michigan has produced a 5* QB in 2023 (Dante Moore- Oregon), 2024 (CJ Carr- Notre Dame), and 2025 (Bryce Underwood) classes. And Bryce Underwood is by far the best of that bunch imo. Underwood is going to wind up being the #1 overall player in his class imo. He's a 6'3+ freakish athlete with a huge arm that is actually a year young for his grade.

[ELA]

2025 5* QB Bryce Underwood will in the house. Could just wind up being a Michigan-MSU battle for his LOI.

Certainly seems that way.  Long way to go there though.  Still just a HS sophomore