There are a few "tripwires" that could induce a major economic collapse. One would be a major conflict, spending would have to increase majorly, and it would be deficit spending. The second would be a typical recession that spirals into something worse because there is no "dry powder". Government usually tries to spend its way out of recession, and the Fed lowers interest rates and does qualitative easing to help, both are close to being tapped out. Past recessions were often presaged by oil price shocks, we were having to send trillions overseas for oil, that situation is a bit better today, and could be why we haven't had a major recession since 2008-9 (COVID was a very sharp recession).
Imagine China really does attack Taiwan (I don't foresee this any time soon), and the US decides to intercede, and things get rough. We'd lose all imports from China and have to spend more money on imports from somewhere else, while spending a lot more on the war itself. I THINK China is playing the Long Game on Taiwan.
