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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36722 on: August 24, 2024, 03:43:19 PM »
Biden has started no wars, nor has he committed American servicemen to either Ukraine or Israel. The economy has been humming. Unemployment is basically at/above "full employment" level. Domestic oil production is at record levels. Trade deficit was higher under GWB than Obama, and higher under Trump than Obama.

We have some inflation problems. But so does the entire world. I'll give you that we've had more immigration and regulation. 

I don't really have a good way to measure "national security".

But I fail to see how the R party has credibility on a number of those things you mention. It's their "brand", but they often fail to deliver.

Shhhhhhhh.  Stop with the facts.  Can't be bothered with all that nonsense.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36723 on: August 24, 2024, 03:46:33 PM »
I dont accept that illegal immogration is higher because the economy is good

Its higher because Biden allowed illegal immogration in hugh numbers

He should be tried for treason

Hey professor, your acceptance doesn't factor into something being true or not.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36724 on: August 24, 2024, 03:48:53 PM »
Well I guess if we look at the graph, we should also try Reagan, Clinton, and GWB for treason, huh? \

But GHWB gets a pass. After all, immigration went down during his term. And hmm, it also went down under GWB's first term.

Let's see, what do those things have in common?



Huh. Fancy that. We, now that we add in the Great Recession, are 3 for 3 that recession correlates to fewer border patrol apprehensions. Makes you think that maybe when our economy sucks, people aren't trying so much to hop the border to come in?


you have now crossed over to the twilight zone

nobody but Biden has purposly allowed illegals to flow into this country

The American people are not fooled on this and fire the Dems in Nov

« Last Edit: August 24, 2024, 03:55:13 PM by longhorn320 »
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36725 on: August 24, 2024, 03:51:08 PM »
Hey professor, your acceptance doesn't factor into something being true or not. 

Eh, the suggestion that "illegal immigration is high because the economy is good" isn't a fact, just another opinion.  

The US economy is pretty much always better than the economies are, in the countries where the illegal immigrants are coming from.

longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36726 on: August 24, 2024, 03:53:19 PM »
Hey professor, your acceptance doesn't factor into something being true or not. 

Oh God I forgot its Saturday And OAM comes out to play

Go grade some papers or ship some games or something
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36727 on: August 24, 2024, 04:05:05 PM »
Don't need to deep dive, but I guess if I must, I must...

Massive border, crime fentanyl problem

Agreed. Federal problem, can be laid at the feet of the executive branch. They messed this one up.

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Inflation crushing middle and lower class, for most of the administration.  Slightly better now, but definitely fueled by spending and fiscal policy.

Major problem, but I don't necessarily put this on the executive branch. This is partly the federal reserve and partly Congress. And you all know my opinion that this is both an international problem, not a US problem, and that I don't think an alternate party in power would have just NOT spent money on fiscal stimulus. It would be electoral suicide.


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Soft on crime stance, especially in liberal places.
Primarily a state/local issue. A bad one, I agree, but those areas have largely gotten their asses handed to them and are reversing course.


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Multiple new wars taking place, involving US dollars and weapons
Can't blame the President for Putin invading or Oct 7 and the Israeli response. Maybe you can claim we shouldn't be helping Ukraine, but it's hard to argue that a policy of appeasement would be good for Putin's aspirations. As for Israel, that has been a long-term ally of the United States and we're trying to walk a fine line internationally between supporting our ally who was attacked (and has been continually attacked for decades) by Hamas and not trying to egg them on.

I'm open to the arguments that our responses under Biden have been wrong. However, ultimately it's a gnat on the ass of all the bigger issues we have going on.


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Gas prices severely impacted by BAD decisions and policy.
Gas prices are impacted by a lot of things. I'd argue the three main things are the completely disjointed supply/demand whipsaws post-COVID, the supply chain issues that have rocked several industries, and general inflation. I don't think most of this is caused by political action. And as mentioned, despite whatever claims anyone has about Biden's policies, US domestic oil production IS at record highs.


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Completely out of balance commitment to EV, causing greater economic issues.

The EV subsidy has been around since 2010. Trump was President from 2016-2020. If you think the subsidy is a bad thing, why didn't he get rid of it?

If you're talking about EV mandates, we're talking about things that Governors/Presidents are promising that happen LONG after they are out of power. As CD might say, that's unimpressive. It can [and will] get overturned / pushed out / watered down if the economics don't support it. I personally think the mandates are stupid. Ultimately the market should sort this out. If you're trying to save the environment, a carbon tax would be a much more effective idea than EV mandates.


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List goes on.  Won’t even go into the list of legislative positions that are way too left of mainstream.

Well again, legislation starts in Congress. Yeah, Presidents can veto legislation, but since GWB in 2001, we've had 24 years and 46 vetoes, or about 2 per year. Largely they sign what shows up on their desks. Albeit Trump (10) and Biden (12) have higher rates than GWB (12) and Obama (12), because both Trump and Biden have done it in 4, and in 3 1/2 years, respectively, while the other two had two full terms each. But even then Trump only vetoed bills at 2.5 per year, and Biden at >3 per year.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2024, 04:17:42 PM by betarhoalphadelta »

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36728 on: August 24, 2024, 04:16:29 PM »
Eh, the suggestion that "illegal immigration is high because the economy is good" isn't a fact, just another opinion. 
It's not even an opinion. It's offering a hypothesis that there is a causative relationship between the two. And I offered some evidence that there is at least a correlation. 

To me, it certainly seems a more plausible hypothesis than "Republicans Good, Democrats Bad" on the issue. The three downturns in border apprehensions occurred under two Republican presidents (GHWB & GWB's first term) and one Democrat (Obama). The rising numbers of border apprehensions occurred under two Republican presidents (Reagan & GWB's second term) and two Democrats (Clinton & Biden). So I don't see a very strong partisan correlation, but I **DO** see a very strong correlation between border apprehensions and economic growth or contraction. 

I think it's at the very least food for thought. There's a correlation between illegal immigration and the trade deficit, that seems fairly tight to whether the economy is good or bad. 

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36729 on: August 24, 2024, 04:24:31 PM »
It's not even an opinion. It's offering a hypothesis that there is a causative relationship between the two. And I offered some evidence that there is at least a correlation.

To me, it certainly seems a more plausible hypothesis than "Republicans Good, Democrats Bad" on the issue. The three downturns in border apprehensions occurred under two Republican presidents (GHWB & GWB's first term) and one Democrat (Obama). The rising numbers of border apprehensions occurred under two Republican presidents (Reagan & GWB's second term) and two Democrats (Clinton & Biden). So I don't see a very strong partisan correlation, but I **DO** see a very strong correlation between border apprehensions and economic growth or contraction.

I think it's at the very least food for thought. There's a correlation between illegal immigration and the trade deficit, that seems fairly tight to whether the economy is good or bad.


Fair enough but there are so many variables in economic growth or contraction that this is a case where I'd say "correlation does not equal causation" and look for FAR deeper analysis.  Like I said, the US economy is pretty much ALWAYS better than the economies of the countries where illegal immigrants are coming from, so using the status of the US economy as a single causal variable is... suspect.

Regardless, OAM scoffing at lh320 for not accepting your hypothesis as "truth" is silly at best.

Mdot21

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36730 on: August 24, 2024, 04:36:39 PM »
Right, but you're not having an epileptic fit anytime her name pops up.
guilty as charged. football is officially back today baby. I'm done talking about that stupid whore. :)

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36731 on: August 24, 2024, 04:37:46 PM »
guilty as charged. football is back. I'm done talking about that stupid whore. :)
Maybe just dial it down a notch.

I don't want you to have a heart attack in here.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36732 on: August 24, 2024, 04:39:29 PM »
Maybe just dial it down a notch.

I don't want you to have a heart attack in here.
Too much coffee?
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36733 on: August 24, 2024, 04:41:58 PM »
Fair enough but there are so many variables in economic growth or contraction that this is a case where I'd say "correlation does not equal causation" and look for FAR deeper analysis.

Regardless, OAM scoffing at lh320 for not accepting your hypothesis as "truth" is silly at best.
Fair, but lh320 assuming I've entered the "twilight zone" is just as silly. Possibly even more silly, because at least I backed up what I was saying with evidence and argument. His retort was emotion and "TREASON!!!"

But there's a lot of logical argument that can back up my position. What are some of the areas that low-skill migrants can easily get jobs? Oh, things like being a busboy. Things like manual labor construction jobs. In a recession, there is lower demand for those jobs. Particularly the Great Recession, which was SO heavily dominated by impacts to the construction industry. But even if you think about the idea of being a busboy / dishwasher / line cook in a restaurant, eating at restaurants is one of the areas hit hard by recession when consumer spending drops. And in the time of recession, they will ALSO face greater domestic competition for these jobs, because it's harder for Americans to find work at all, and they're going to accept jobs/wages that they might not otherwise. 

I think you know that I'm someone who understands that there's a LOT of nuance in the world--it's always more complex than a simple analysis will reveal. But I don't think it's wrong to point out that the only times we've had a concerted drop in border apprehensions (a proxy for the number of illegal immigrants trying to get here) in the last 44 years just HAPPEN to be the same time we have recessions, and that everything about WHY those might correlate might actually NOT be that nuanced. 

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36734 on: August 24, 2024, 04:44:55 PM »
Fair, but lh320 assuming I've entered the "twilight zone" is just as silly. Possibly even more silly, because at least I backed up what I was saying with evidence and argument. His retort was emotion and "TREASON!!!"

But there's a lot of logical argument that can back up my position. What are some of the areas that low-skill migrants can easily get jobs? Oh, things like being a busboy. Things like manual labor construction jobs. In a recession, there is lower demand for those jobs. Particularly the Great Recession, which was SO heavily dominated by impacts to the construction industry. But even if you think about the idea of being a busboy / dishwasher / line cook in a restaurant, eating at restaurants is one of the areas hit hard by recession when consumer spending drops. And in the time of recession, they will ALSO face greater domestic competition for these jobs, because it's harder for Americans to find work at all, and they're going to accept jobs/wages that they might not otherwise.

I think you know that I'm someone who understands that there's a LOT of nuance in the world--it's always more complex than a simple analysis will reveal. But I don't think it's wrong to point out that the only times we've had a concerted drop in border apprehensions (a proxy for the number of illegal immigrants trying to get here) in the last 44 years just HAPPEN to be the same time we have recessions, and that everything about WHY those might correlate might actually NOT be that nuanced.


Is the relative difference in economies from the places the illegal immigrants are coming from, compared to the US, greater during those periods?  Is the delta in that difference large enough to be statistically significant?

Without digging any deeper than you have, I'll suggest that there's ALWAYS an extremely large backlog of illegal immigrants that desire to come into the US.

So, whether they get in or not, is related to something else.

That's MY hypothesis, nobody should claim it as "true." :)
« Last Edit: August 24, 2024, 04:59:18 PM by utee94 »

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #36735 on: August 24, 2024, 05:00:45 PM »
Anyway, it's time to go hit the pool for a bit, then get ready to feast on fancy seafood and steaks.  Sure am glad the economy's so good, so I can spend obscene amounts of money on dinner for the inlaws!

 

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