This is really fascinating. What I take away from this is not that Ohio necessarily changed. But there's something about Ohioans that make them just LOVE them some Trump. Because I find it hard to believe the state made an 8-10 point swing overall in political party preference in 4-8 years between 2012 and '16 or '20.
There's nothing that I can see in demographic changes that would explain that.
Any thoughts?
First, I don't see this as really limited to Ohio. The growth in the R margin from 2016-2020 is more specific to Ohio but that could just be because after 2016 Ohio lost it's long-time status as a battleground state with TONS of political advertising and campaigning. Once that happened the ads and campaign activities dried up. There was still activity here obviously, but it was locally-driven not top-down nationally driven and the locally driven activity was stronger on the R side simply because there were more R's and more R officeholders, etc.
The shift from 2000-2016 nearly all occurred in the 2016 election and I think the story is similar in PA, MI, and WI. Trump carried all three in 2016 and was the first Republican to do so in a very long time. Trump lost all three in 2020 but even so, they were CLOSE and if you go back to pre-2016 in any election where the R was close in PA, MI, and WI, the R would have won nationally in a landslide. Specifically:
National Popular Vote:
- D+0.5 in 2000
- R+2.5 in 2004
- D+7.2 in 2008
- D+4 in 2012
- D+2 in 2016
- D+4.5 in 2020
Pennsylvania:
- D+4 in 2000, indicates a PVI of D+3.5
- D+2.5 in 2004, indicates a PVI of D+5
- D+10 in 2008, indicates a PVI of D+3
- D+5.5 in 2012, indicates a PVI of D+1.5
- R+0.5 in 2016, indicates a PVI of R+2.5
- D+1 in 2020, indicates a PVI of R+3.5
Michigan:
- D+5 in 2000, indicates a PVI of D+4.5
- D+3.5 in 2004, indicates a PVI of D+6
- D+16.5 in 2008, indicates a PVI of D+9.3
- D+9.5 in 2012, indicates a PVI of D+5
- R+0.2 in 2016, indicates a PVI of R+2.2
- D+3 in 2020, indicates a PVI of R+1.5
Wisconsin:
- D+0.5 in 2000, indicates a PVI of 0
- D+0.5 in 2004, indicates a PVI of D+3
- D+14 in 2008, indicates a PVI of D+7
- D+7 in 2012, indicates a PVI of D+3
- R+0.7 in 2016, indicates a PVI of R+2.7
- D+0.5 in 2020, indicates a PVI of R+5
Even though all three states flipped back to D in 2020, they all remained MORE Republican in 2020 than the nation as a whole and that was NOT true for any of those states from 2000-2012. I didn't go back further but I think you'd have to go back something like a century to find the last times that PA, MI, and WI voted MORE Republican than the nation as a whole.
Fundamentally, 2016 was a major realignment election much like 1932. Non-college whites specifically are MUCH more Republican than they were previously. Will it stay that way . . . Well that is anybody's guess. Your comment that "Ohioans . . . love them some Trump" suggests that it is a personality thing that will disappear once Trump walks off the national stage.
I think the change is more permanent. The Republican VP nominee is pro-Union and pro-minimum wage among other things. Republicans simply have to adjust to the fact that due to demographic replacement, they simply can't win without enlarging their coalition somewhere. Trump did that in a major way. Trump also alienated some people but conveniently for him, a substantial portion of his gains came in states that were able to be flipped while most of his losses came in places where he either was safe or had no chance anyway so they didn't cost him anything. Ie, you seem to be a normally R-leaning Californian. If you voted for Romney in 2012 and NOT for Trump in 2016 and 2020 hat didn't cost Trump anything because he lost California by double-digits both times but Romney also lost California by double-digits (smaller double digits but it makes no difference).
