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Interest rates. It's a problem that was manufactured on purpose.

Are you saying they’re too high ? 

Interest rates have historically been much higher on average than what we’ve had now. 

We’ve had artificially low interest rates in the US since the early 2000’s IMO. 

home buyers LOVE artificially low interest rates

Especially those with ARMs.  A thing I noticed is that with high mortgage rates, real estate prices are depressed, and vice versa.  So, at times, you end up paying about the same (broadly speaking, over time).  I got a mortgage on our second house in 1987 at 12.5% and thought that was pretty good.  I refinanced several times, and finally ended up with a HELOC at something like 7%.  Rates continued to fall and I paid it off at some point.

I should have this place paid off in 13 months.  We have a ten year ARM at 3.375%.  

Anyway, interest rates are still pretty low by most historical fairly recent standards, I just don't know if they are artificial exactly.

Folks have been calling for a recession for a decade now, and aside from COVID, haven't had one really.  The inverted interest rate curve has been around for years now, and hasn't seemed to matter.  I moved money into CDs paying 5.4% or so, short term, enough to get by for several years.

One problem with higher interest rates of course is the service on the debt goes up rather steeply, compounding etc.

Especially those with ARMs.  A thing I noticed is that with high mortgage rates, real estate prices are depressed, and vice versa.  So, at times, you end up paying about the same (broadly speaking, over time).  I got a mortgage on our second house in 1987 at 12.5% and thought that was pretty good.  I refinanced several times, and finally ended up with a HELOC at something like 7%.  Rates continued to fall and I paid it off at some point.

Usually. The problem is right now we have high home prices and high interest rates. The interest rates followed a massive run-up in house prices, and now everyone is locked into big mortgages with low interest rates and don't want to sell, so there's no inventory. With no inventory, the affordability problem (high prices + high interest rates) won't reverse because while demand at these prices is low, so is supply. 

We have a 2.75 ARM for another 8 years and the house will be paid off. We're not going anywhere, so a crash wouldn't hurt us, but you still don't want to see it.

I wouldn't mind a housing crash at all. In fact, I've been wondering what the eff is taking so long with it...

A housing crash would probably put me out of business. I don't have the same energy to get through it like I did in 2008.

So, thanks for your wishes.

A housing crash would probably put me out of business. I don't have the same energy to get through it like I did in 2008.

So, thanks for your wishes.

Definitely don't wish you harm, Badge.

But "owning a home" is the biggest remaining chess piece in my strategy of building wealth to set me up for retirement in hopefully <20 years. And it's going to take prices coming down substantially to get there.