yeah for two main reasons. one- US intelligence and media quoting "anonymous intelligence" sources has like zero credibility in my eyes- and they've earned that. turns out they were finally right about something- but even a broken clock is right twice in a day. and more importantly; two- i simply did not think Putin was that stupid to actually pull the trigger on a full scale invasion that would be more harmful than beneficial to him and his country and would seriously alienate the few allies he had in Europe are already turning on him, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Czech President Milos Zeman who both have know come out to strongly rebuke Putin and bitterly condemn his war of aggression.
I admit to going back and forth on whether Putin would invade Ukraine, something he's wanted to do for years:
Initially YES, because everything was finally lining up favorably for Putin - a western Europe with limited response due to their dependence on Russia's natural gas AND an American Foreign Policy posture weakened by a disastrous exit from Afghanistan. Once Putin was sure NATO wasn't going to commit troops on the ground or fighter jets over the skies, the only reaction he faced were sanctions, to which he and his billionaires are well insolated from, even sanctions targeted specifically at their wealth.
Then NO, at least not a full scale invasion targeting Kyiv. But with that many Russian Troops on the border I figured he'd still likely invade the eastern few edges for annexing into Russia, similar to what happened with Crimea.
Then back to YES, because of Putin's conquering ego. He was never going to let self-declared "World Leaders" that he sees as weaklings (Biden, Macron) or buffoons (Boris Johnson, Blinken) create for themselves political opportunism by trumpeting their own diplomacy should Putin draw down Russian Forces from Ukraine's borders.
With all that said I'm still watching in disbelief as a full scale invasion unfolds in Eastern Europe. "It is not 1919. It is 2022," to quote Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US Ambassador to the UN.