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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2023, 09:26:27 AM »
What does Oregon do for the B1G?
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #43 on: August 03, 2023, 09:36:29 AM »
hell, UCLA does nothing

USC is good, Notre Dame is good

the rest take more than they give
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #44 on: August 03, 2023, 09:50:04 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2023, 09:36:29 AM
hell, UCLA does nothing

USC is good, Notre Dame is good

the rest take more than they give
UCLA can legitimately be called out as a necessary "travel partner" for USC. I'd be surprised if USC were willing to break without them, so the B1G didn't have any choice there.

But the idea that Oregon or Washington could also be called out as legitimate "travel partners" for the LA schools, with distances between them of ~1000 and ~1100 miles, is silly.

Sure they're in the same timezone, but that timezone is undesirable for the broadcast of college football, which is among the driving reasons for the failure of the PAC in the first place.  Nobody out there watches football, they just don't care.
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #45 on: August 03, 2023, 09:52:43 AM »
not much value in a travel partner
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847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #46 on: August 03, 2023, 09:57:02 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2023, 09:36:29 AM
hell, UCLA does nothing

USC is good, Notre Dame is good

the rest take more than they give
FSU adds value.

Miami adds value.
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #47 on: August 03, 2023, 10:02:40 AM »
their TV ratings are much better than the B1G average?

if so, is it significant enough to leverage contract negotiations with the networks?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #48 on: August 03, 2023, 10:06:17 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 09:26:27 AM
What does Oregon do for the B1G?
Washington is the 13th most populous state with 7.7M. 

Oregon is the 27th most populous state with 4.2M.

In between them are the following B1G states:
  • #17 IN, 6.8M
  • #18 MD, 6.2M
  • #20 WI, 5.9M
  • #22 MN, 5.7M
Less populous than both are two B1G states:
  • #31 IA, 3.2M
  • #37 NE, 2.0M

Both Washington and Oregon saw their populations grow by double digits from 2010-2020. Washington and Oregon were 8th and 12th respectively in rate of population growth from 2010-2020 with growth rates of 14.6% and 10.6%. By way of comparison the fastest growing B1G state over that period was Minnesota at 7.6%. Illinois lost population from 2010-2020 while Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were among the slowest growing states with growth rates of <3%.

In terms of research spending (2021 figures):
  • Washington was #5 at $1.5B
  • Stanford was #9 at $1.3B
  • California was #32 at $0.8B
  • Oregon was #149 at $0.1B


Current B1G schools and B1G schools to be:
  • #3 Michigan, $1.6B (note, #1 and 2 do not have FBS football)
  • #6 UCLA, $1.5B
  • #8 Wisconsin, $1.4B
  • #12 Ohio State, $1.2B
  • #17 Maryland, $1.1B
  • #22 Minnesota, $1.1B
  • #26 Penn State, $1.0B
  • #28 USC, $1.0B
  • #30 Northwestern, $0.9B
  • #37 Illinois, $0.7B
  • #39 Michigan State, $0.7B
  • #40 Indiana, $0.7B
  • #41 Purdue, $0.7B
  • #45 Rutgers $0.6B
  • #50 Iowa, $0.6B
  • #87 Nebraska, $0.3B


I'd say take Washington and Stanford.
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #49 on: August 03, 2023, 10:07:34 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 03, 2023, 09:52:43 AM
not much value in a travel partner
Y'all wanted USC, you had to take UCLA to get them.  No different than wanting to drive the BTN onto cable networks in NY, and having to take Rutgers to get that done.  Just business.  Not sure why all you B1G types keep on thinking you should be able to get the benefit without paying the price.  It's odd.

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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #50 on: August 03, 2023, 10:08:53 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 03, 2023, 10:06:17 AM
Washington is the 13th most populous state with 7.7M. 

Oregon is the 27th most populous state with 4.2M.

In between them are the following B1G states:
  • #17 IN, 6.8M
  • #18 MD, 6.2M
  • #20 WI, 5.9M
  • #22 MN, 5.7M
Less populous than both are two B1G states:
  • #31 IA, 3.2M
  • #37 NE, 2.0M

Both Washington and Oregon saw their populations grow by double digits from 2010-2020. Washington and Oregon were 8th and 12th respectively in rate of population growth from 2010-2020 with growth rates of 14.6% and 10.6%. By way of comparison the fastest growing B1G state over that period was Minnesota at 7.6%. Illinois lost population from 2010-2020 while Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were among the slowest growing states with growth rates of <3%.

In terms of research spending (2021 figures):
  • Washington was #5 at $1.5B
  • Stanford was #9 at $1.3B
  • California was #32 at $0.8B
  • Oregon was #149 at $0.1B


Current B1G schools and B1G schools to be:
  • #3 Michigan, $1.6B (note, #1 and 2 do not have FBS football)
  • #6 UCLA, $1.5B
  • #8 Wisconsin, $1.4B
  • #12 Ohio State, $1.2B
  • #17 Maryland, $1.1B
  • #22 Minnesota, $1.1B
  • #26 Penn State, $1.0B
  • #28 USC, $1.0B
  • #30 Northwestern, $0.9B
  • #37 Illinois, $0.7B
  • #39 Michigan State, $0.7B
  • #40 Indiana, $0.7B
  • #41 Purdue, $0.7B
  • #45 Rutgers $0.6B
  • #50 Iowa, $0.6B
  • #87 Nebraska, $0.3B


I'd say take Washington and Stanford.

I'd perform the analysis with television ratings normalized by school, rather than state population or research dollars, which are irrelevant to conference realignment.

Despite growing populations on the West Coast, the television ratings aren't following.  And that's been the biggest problem leading to the PAC's failure.
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Drew4UTk

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #51 on: August 03, 2023, 10:18:57 AM »
I was reading something last night somebody shared on FB (so we know 90+% gotta be lies) about private groups getting in this "game"... the idea being a group could sponsor and become a conference by poaching schools from whatever conference(s) and build a true super conference... nothing to do with geographics nor tradition- all on the money... 

Right now the conferences are weak in terms of susceptibility to realignment... its as good an opportunity as any.  If there is any validity to this, weird stuff could happen and the game as we know it could truly be wrecked.  
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bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #52 on: August 03, 2023, 10:19:36 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 03, 2023, 09:26:27 AM
What does Oregon do for the B1G?
When I look for an expansion candidate, I look for two things. Consistent ability to feel good and occasionally great teams and a fan base that will give/watch/support. having a good number of people who give a shit is important in my mind.

Of the remaining Pac 12 teams, Oregon is probably second in that regard. Certainly higher than UCLA. (Utah would be fun for stylistic reasons, but obviously struggles on the support front)

obviously if the choice was between Oregon and certain southern teams, I’m probably going with the southern team. Although I would be wary of Miami (not many fans, only modest recent success). FSU is interesting because I think the power of its alumni base is only gonna grow, even if it comes attached to FSU nonsense.
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #53 on: August 03, 2023, 10:20:09 AM »
Why does the Big Ten, or anybody want to move so fast on all this? When it comes to the Pac 12’s leftovers, the ball is in the conference’s court; the conferences can play the waiting game if they want.

In the bigger picture the conference hierarchies are already established within college football and the Big 10 is a clear cut #2 outside of striking range from #1 or falling to #3 no matter what schools end up where. Why not sit back and watch the dust settle? Having a quick-strike meeting to potentially invite Oregon, who adds nothing to the Big Ten, seems an unecessary and even regrettable arms race.


https://twitter.com/jasonscheer/status/1686865543050166278
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #54 on: August 03, 2023, 10:42:10 AM »
Quote from: CatsbyAZ on August 03, 2023, 10:20:09 AM
Why does the Big Ten, or anybody want to move so fast on all this? When it comes to the Pac 12’s leftovers, the ball is in the conference’s court; the conferences can play the waiting game if they want.

Ed Zachery

the Big can take any B12 team it wants at anytime in the future

the only teams that are safe from the B1G are teams in the SEC
the SEC isn't interested in ANY PAC programs or any programs west of the Mississippi river
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Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #55 on: August 03, 2023, 10:49:10 AM »
Yeah, we wanted Oklahoma and had to take Texas in the deal, travel partner or something.
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