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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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medinabuckeye1

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Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« on: August 02, 2023, 10:19:53 AM »
With Colorado and the LA schools leaving for the B12 and B1G and the announcement of the Pac's pathetic proposed TV deal, every school in the league is certainly looking to abandon ship if they can find something better. The remaining members after the announced departures are:

  • Arizona
  • Arizona State 
  • Utah
  • California 
  • Stanford 
  • Oregon 
  • Oregon State 
  • Washington 
  • Washington State 

Each of them would of course love a B1G or SEC invite but IMHO the only plausible chances of that are the B1G taking some or all of California, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington. 

The B12 is now at 13 members (once OK  and TX depart and Colorado rejoins) with:
  • Baylor
  • BYU
  • UCF
  • Cincy
  • Houston 
  • ISU
  • Kansas
  • KSU
  • OkSU
  • TCU
  • TxTech
  • WVU
  • Colorado 
So it is the B12's move. What will they do?


Temp430

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2023, 10:27:30 AM »
No good options for the remaining PAC teams. I would bet the PAC adds a few teams.  The B12 might add a couple like Arizona, WSU, and SMU.  The PAC is kind of like where the B12 was just after Texas and Oklahoma announced their departure.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2023, 10:33:59 AM by Temp430 »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2023, 10:39:55 AM »
If I were B12 commish I'd love to trim some of the weakest from the league but assuming that will not happen, I expand to a 20-team conference by adding:

  • An easternish school ideally Pitt but Louisville and others would be considered. 
  • Air Force
  • Either New Mexico or NmSt (whichever is a better brand)
  • Either Arizona or Arizona State (better brand)
  • Either Nevada or UNLV (better brand)
  • SDSU
  • Either Oregon, Washington, Stanford, or California depending on which is available and brand strength. 
Split into four pods of five teams each:
Easternish pod:
  • Pitt (or whatever school is added)
  • WVU
  • Cincy
  • ISU
  • UCF
Greater Texas pod:
  • OkSU
  • Baylor 
  • Houston 
  • TxTech
  • TCU
Plains/Rockies pod:
  • Kansas
  • KSU
  • Colorado 
  • Air Force
  • BYU
West pod:
  • NmSt/New Mexico 
  • Zona/ASU
  • Nevada/UNLV
  • Oregon/Washington/Stanford/California 
  • SDSU


That isn't going to keep up with the B1G/SEC but I think it would at least close to match the ACC and be definitively ahead of all others. 

utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2023, 11:05:32 AM »
If I were B12 commish I'd love to trim some of the weakest from the league but assuming that will not happen, I expand to a 20-team conference by adding:
I'm sure every commish from every league would like to do that, but at $40M per year over 12 years, there's no way a "trimmed" school is going to walk away from half a billion dollars without a major legal battle.  And that's just B12 dollars, when you move up to B1G money, you're talking more like a full billion dollars over that same 12 year span.

It's something that internet message board posters always like to suggest, but in reality it's an absolute non-starter.

Anyway looks like the B12 is trying to add AU and ASU for sure.  Beyond that, it's unclear.  Utah makes sense geographically with BYU already in the fold, but the Utes claim they're not going anywhere.  

I'm sure the B12 would also find room for Oregon and Washington, but both of those schools are clearly hoping for an invitation to the B1G.

847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2023, 11:14:32 AM »
  • Arizona - XII
  • Arizona State - XII
  • Utah - XII
  • California - MWC
  • Stanford - B1G
  • Oregon - XII
  • Oregon State - MWC
  • Washington - XII
  • Washington State - MWC
5 more to the XII.

1 B1G.

3 MWC.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2023, 12:53:52 PM »
I'm sure every commish from every league would like to do that, but at $40M per year over 12 years, there's no way a "trimmed" school is going to walk away from half a billion dollars without a major legal battle.  And that's just B12 dollars, when you move up to B1G money, you're talking more like a full billion dollars over that same 12 year span.

It's something that internet message board posters always like to suggest, but in reality it's an absolute non-starter.
I agree completely, that was why I assumed that it would not happen in my post. 

The B1G and SEC have some dead wood that they would be better off to trim as well:
  • Tennessee doesn't warrant two major conference schools.
  • Mississippi doesn't warrant two major conference schools
  • Indiana doesn't warrant two major conference schools (three if you count ND but they have a more national appeal)
  • Michigan probably doesn't warrant two major conference schools
  • Illinois might not warrant two major conference schools
That said, the SEC and B1G have enough revenue that a few schools like these aren't a big issue. For the B12, supporting secondary schools in Iowa, and Kansas is more problematic.
Anyway looks like the B12 is trying to add AU and ASU for sure.  Beyond that, it's unclear.  Utah makes sense geographically with BYU already in the fold, but the Utes claim they're not going anywhere. 

I'm sure the B12 would also find room for Oregon and Washington, but both of those schools are clearly hoping for an invitation to the B1G.
If I were B12 Commish I'd pass on one of the Arizona schools and take a New Mexico school instead. I'd also pass on Utah because BYU already brings in the Mormon/Utah market and probably has a lot more reach beyond locally.
5 more to the XII.

1 B1G.

3 MWC.
Five more to the XII takes them to 18.

I guess divisions of nine would work. Then you'd play eight divisional games and probably one cross-over.

847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2023, 01:04:54 PM »
I think it's a race to 20 for the XII.

You mention New Mexico. I'd say pass on that and take UNLV. Then take Boise State.
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Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2023, 01:12:48 PM »
don't give a damn as long as none of them come to the B1G with the exception of Stanford. That's the only school from the dead Pac that potentially adds anything at all to the B1G and doesn't hurt the B1G. Adding Washington adds literally nothing and adding Oregon actually just hurts the B1G helmet brands like OSU, M, PSU, USC. A weakened Oregon in a subpar conference that eventually falls back to the wayside and in their rightful place as a back water is only a good thing for the B1G. Giving Oregon a lifeline and adding them to the B1G would be a disaster.

847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2023, 01:16:29 PM »
don't give a damn as long as none of them come to the B1G with the exception of Stanford. That's the only school from the dead Pac that potentially adds anything at all to the B1G and doesn't hurt the B1G. Adding Washington adds literally nothing and adding Oregon actually just hurts the B1G helmet brands like OSU, M, PSU, USC. A weakened Oregon in a subpar conference that eventually falls back to the wayside and in their rightful place as a back water is only a good thing for the B1G. Giving Oregon a lifeline and adding them to the B1G would be a disaster.
100 percent agree on all counts.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2023, 04:02:19 PM »
I think it's a race to 20 for the XII.

You mention New Mexico. I'd say pass on that and take UNLV. Then take Boise State.
Maybe New Mexico doesn't have the population to warrant adding either New Mexico or NmSt but Idaho is even less populous so I don't see Boise as a logical addition. 

The City of San Diego has a population of 1.4M (would be #41 as a state) while San Diego County has 3.3M which would be #30 as a state, just ahead of Utah, Iowa, and Nevada and well ahead of Idaho. That is why I think the XII would be wise to add SDSU.

UNLV probably makes more sense than Nevada simply because Vegas is a lot bigger than Reno.

Utah's population is about equal to Iowa's. Granted, Utah is growing a lot faster but I don't think taking a second school from a state that size makes sense. The XII already has BYU and they probably have more national reach than Utah. 

Apparently the Arizona schools have a common governing board so they might insist on both or neither but if the XII called their bluff and invited only one would they fold?

847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2023, 04:04:19 PM »
SDSU over Boise would be a better move, probably.
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2023, 04:10:43 PM »


Apparently the Arizona schools have a common governing board so they might insist on both or neither but if the XII called their bluff and invited only one would they fold?

Yeah this is why I suggested both would be pursued by the B12.  But if you didn't HAVE to take them both...

But the other thing to keep in mind, is that the weaker the PAC becomes, the better it is for the B12's long term survival.  So in that sense, it might be worth taking both AZ schools, just to keep firing nails into that coffin.

And I'll also note that as a traditionalist, I hate having survival of the fittest conversations about college football conferences.  I grew up watching and enjoying PAC football and the traditions and pageantry in that conference.  But this is where we've landed in 2023.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2023, 04:13:11 PM »
As a Mountain Time Zone resident I was hoping that the Pac would add BYU and Boise, but now I have to root for Utah and the Arizona twins' migration to the craptastic Big 12.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2023, 04:34:41 PM »
Yeah this is why I suggested both would be pursued by the B12.  But if you didn't HAVE to take them both...

But the other thing to keep in mind, is that the weaker the PAC becomes, the better it is for the B12's long term survival.  So in that sense, it might be worth taking both AZ schools, just to keep firing nails into that coffin.

And I'll also note that as a traditionalist, I hate having survival of the fittest conversations about college football conferences.  I grew up watching and enjoying PAC football and the traditions and pageantry in that conference.  But this is where we've landed in 2023.
Same. And it's Larry Scott's fault that the PAC is where it is.

15 years ago, I could not imagine this happening. We are about to enter a time where there is no more PAC. Sad.

Probably just as sad as when the SWC crumbled.
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