87. Marshall Thundering Herd |
#4 in Conference USA |
Marshall had all of the pieces in place to reach their first conference championship game since 2014, and while they had a solid season, every time the Thundering Herd played a big game, they came up short. Losing to Virginia Tech and NC State out of conference is forgivable, but they also drew a very favorable schedule, and lost 2 of the 3 games they had to play against teams that finished above .500 in the conference. So it’s a 9 win season, where the best win was maybe over FIU? The offense, particularly the running game, had a major bounceback from 2017, but if Marshall hopes to improve upon 2018, the offense needs to be perhaps the best unit in the conference. The key to that growth is Isaiah Green, who beat out Alex Thomson to win the quarterback job in the preseason, but looked like the freshman he was too often. If he can get his completion percentage up from 56.7% up to 60 or 61%, that makes a big difference. The defense has carried the program the past two years, but there are more questions on that side of the ball than there has been in a while. Those questions start up front, where Marshall has dominated conference opponents the past two years, averaging 3.31 sacks per game, third in Conference USA, and holding opponents to 31.5% third down conversions, second best. They get Ty Tyler back, who led the team with 8 sacks; but the rest of the line graduated. That is where returning production vs. returning starters is important though, as interior pass rushing specialist Channing Hames, who actually finished second with 5.5 sacks, and led the team with 10.5 tackles for loss, likely moves into a starting role. The problem is he in undersized to play inside except in his specialized role. So does he get moved around based on situation? The graduated seniors were so stout against the run, a conference best 2.9 ypc allowed, that teams more or less stopped trying. Teams passed on 53.3% of their snaps against Marshall, third highest rate in the country. The secondary looked to be the strength of the team in 2019, so it’s unlikely that would have continued, but Malik Gant declaring early for the NFL Draft does put a bit of a damper on that. With the other three they do return, and the massive losses suffered at both levels in front of them, I think that’s still a fact, but it’s more of a concern than a fact. Chris Jackson has taken the next step every time he’s been asked to. He came in as a lightly recruited wide receiver from Florida, switched to defensive back, and made all-freshman Conference USA, then was honorable mention all-conference as a sophomore, and all-conference as a junior. In his last year in Huntington he needs to be THE lockdown cornerback in the conference. If he’s that, and I think he does become that, it opens up a lot. There is a ton of cornerback depth with Kereon Merrell being given an extra year of eligibility. Gant is an NFL player though, so his early departure, from a mid-major team, does give me pause. Add him, and this would have been in the conversation for being a top 20ish secondary nationally. As it is, it still could be the best in the conference, and with the front seven concerns, it might have to be.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Isaiah Green, Sophomore |
TE | Armani Levias, Senior |
C | Levi Brown, Senior |
| . |
DE | Ty Tyler, Senior |
LB | Omari Cobb, Senior |
CB | Chris Jackson, Senior |
86. SMU Mustangs |
#8 in American |
The American isn’t the easiest conference right now to take a big jump in, but if any team is primed to do so, it would have been SMU. The Mustangs went just 5-7 last year, but that was after an 0-3 start with a new head coach, against a stretch that was on the road against a very good North Texas team, followed by TCU and Michigan. The more concerning part was the two losses at the end, even with a forgivable loss to Memphis, followed by the unforgivable one to a 2-9 Tulsa team, that cost SMU a bowl. In between, SMU was one of the best teams in the conference, winning 5 of 7, with the two losses being on the road at Central Florida, and at home to Cincinnati, in overtime, the two best teams in the conference. It included a win over then #17, 7-1 Houston. They started 18 underclassmen, with a new coach, against a gauntlet schedule, playing 4 teams ranked in the top 20 at gametime. So going from 5 wins to 8 or 9 wins seemed highly possible. So why “would have”? The graduate transfer of Ben Hicks, a three year starter who became the school’s all time passing leader midway through his junior season, with hypothetically 19 games left in his career. Hicks followed one year behind the coach who brought him to Dallas, Chad Morris, to Arkansas. All is not totally lost, with the play of true freshman William Brown, who saw action in six games last year, valuable substantial action in four of those. With a not insignificant sample size of 85 pass attempts, he actually had a better completion percentage than Hicks (62.4% to 55.9%), better yards per attempts (7.4 to 6.9), better passer rating (148.9 to 127.3) and better TD:INT ratio (7:1 to 19:7). I don’t want to say losing your school’s all time leading passer a year early is ever a good thing, but there’s a chance it’s not as bad as it initially appears either though. He’s not the only option though, as the transfer carousel turns, and brings Texas transfer Shane Buechele into the mix. He’s got the flashy pedigree, but I actually think Brown winds up beating him out. Hicks wasn’t nearly the only Mustang to pack up, he’s one of nine offensive players to put their name in the portal. While none of the others are expected contributors, that’s a major depth hit, no matter who you are, particularly three offensive linemen. The five receivers who left may have figured no matter who the quarterback was, there was no reason to ever get beyond their second read. James Proche had a legitimate chance to leave early for the NFL, and decided to return. Once West Virginia transfer Reggie Roberson Jr. got going, and was healthy, that really opened up things for Proche as well. Roberson had one 100 yard game in September, and returning from an injury on October 20, he did so in four of his first five games back. They finished first and fourth in the conference and receiving, and both return. The talent on defense is mostly in the back seven, led by Texas A&M transfer Richard Moore at linebacker. The graduation of middle linebacker Kyran Mitchell is a huge loss from a leadership standpoint, but from a talent perspective may be a non-issue. There is such a glut of safety talent, that they look to show some more 4-2-5 looks, with Patrick Nelson, at only 210 pounds, playing a hybrid position. The Mustangs made unexpected improvements defensively in Dykes’ first year, but they are too thin on that side still, to not simply find ways to get their most talented players on the field. No matter how this year goes, the future seems bright with the program. Sonny Dykes is only 49, even though it seems like a name that has been around forever. He had good success at Louisiana Tech, before failing at California. He’s had that taste of Power 5 though, and might be content to coach it out at SMU, which is a solid mid-major job. He brought in the #69 class in the nation, which ranked #3 in the conference. There seems to be stability and upgraded talent coming into the program, which really has everything in place to probably be the second best program in the American West, behind Houston.
| KEY PLAYERS |
WR | James Proche, Senior |
WR | Reggie Roberson, Jr., Junior |
G | Hayden Howerton, Junior |
| . |
LB | Richard Moore, Senior |
S | Patrick Nelson, Senior |
S | Rodney Clemons, Junior |