Sunday and Monday
120. New Mexico State Aggies |
Independent |
After ending the nation’s longest bowl drought at 57 years in 2017, it seemed clear that New Mexico State would take a step back in their first season in conference exile. But falling all the way to 3-9, considering how terrible the schedule was, was farther than even they anticipated I assume. The three wins came over a UTEP team that we’ve is spending its second season at the bottom of this list; a mediocre FCS team, and Liberty, in their first FBS season, who they lost to in a rematch that was played because it ain’t easy to find opponents as an FBS independent in the middle of nowhere. The Aggies reached a bowl in 2017 by throwing the ball all over the field with Tyler Rodgers, finishing 6th in the FBS in passing yardage. He was going to be hard to replace, and it’s clear Doug Martin wasn’t changing his system. Now New Mexico did fall from 2nd in pass attempts in 2017, at 49.2 per game (behind only Mike Leach at Washington State), all the way down to 4th at 44.8, but when you are only completing 55.3% of your passes, that simply isn’t going to work. With Jason Huntley and Christian Gibson in the backfield, New Mexico State should be better at running the football than they are, they are simply not built to block for it. They have the size, three starters over 320 pounds, but they aren’t winning that line. Their Power Success rate, which is conversions of 2 yards or less, was just 64%, #105 in the FBS, and their Stuff Rate, the percentage of carries stopped at or behind the line, is 22.6%, #111. Their pass blocking numbers are all average, to above average, but Huntley is too good of a talent to be limited to the numbers he’s putting up running the ball. That’s why they have found ways to use his multitude of talents to get him the ball other ways, namely 47 catches, which was the 4th most in the FBS by a running back; and on special teams where he recorded 3 kick return touchdowns, the only player in the FBS to accomplish that last year. Defensively it starts up front, where the Aggies were elite at getting after the quarterback (#8 in the nation in standard down sack rate), while being miserable against the run (6th worst run defense in the nation). In my opinion it’s because they are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by running a 3-4 with mid-major players. The typical problem at the college level, lack of size in the middle, is not here, Roy Lopez and Myles Vigne are each 315 pounds. For this to work, Shane Jackson needs to generate more than 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss, as their best outside linebacker. Otherwise, let him put a hand on the ground, and let Wilcots just attack the quarterback from the other side, with less containment responsibilities. It might serve them well to try and get more linemen and fewer linebackers on the field anyway, trying to replace 6 of 8 from last year’s two deep at the linebacker position.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Josh Adkins, Sophomore |
RB | Jason Huntley, Senior |
T | Sage Doxtater, Senior |
| . |
DE | Cedric Wilcots II, Senior |
DT | Roy Lopez, Senior |
S | Shamad Lomax, Senior |
119. Central Michigan Chippewas |
#11 in MAC |
Just how badly did Central Michigan spiral into oblivion? The Chippewas were so bad last year that John Bonamego, a Central Michigan alum, who called it his dream job, and who beat cancer during his time as coach, was fired despite reaching bowl games in each of his first three years. But that’s what will happen when you come off the worst season in school history, going 1-11 overall, 0-8 in the MAC, the school’s first ever winless MAC campaign. They now turn to Jim McElwain, who spent one season coaching under Jim Harbaugh after getting fired from Florida midway through his third season, in spite of reaching the SEC Championship Game in each of his first two years. The problem at Florida, particularly for an offensive minded coach, is that McElwain was never able to field good offenses. Wait until he gets a load of the mess he’s walking into now. The Chippewas had easily the worst offense in the MAC a year ago, averaging just 15.0 ppg on 254 ypg, 3rd worst and 2nd worst in the FBS respectively. The running game, at 3.2 ypc, deserves plenty of blame, but the real problem is the complete lack of a passing attack. Central Michigan threw for just 4.5 ypa, with a 48.6% completion rate; per S&P+ the worst offense in the FBS in 2018. It was musical chairs at quarterback, starting with Tony Poljan, who turned down Big Ten offers to play tight end or receiver, to try his hand at quarterback in the MAC. He wound up getting benched for Tommy Lazzaro, and then after being reinserted following a season ending injury to Lazzaro, getting benched again. It looks like after a one year trial run, he will be moved out to receiver. He could hopefully provide a spark, as multiple Big Ten teams viewed him as worthy of an offer, so long as he didn’t play quarterback. Getting Lazzaro back healthy, after only being fully healthy for 4 games last year should help too. In those 4 games, the Chippewas averaged 21.0 ppg; which isn’t great, but still far better than the 12.0 they put up in the 8 he didn’t play in any of or all of. They completely wasted what was actually a fairly solid defense, which was 2nd in the MAC, allowing just 5.0 ypp, and accounting for 4 of the 11 first team all-MAC defensive players. Three of those 4 had remaining experience, and looked to be the backbone of what had a chance to be a bowl team in 2019, with even a little bit of offense. Instead, both starting cornerbacks, Sean Bunting and Xavier Crawford declared early for the draft; and then Mike Danna, who tied for 2nd in the MAC in sacks, entered the transfer portal as a grad transfer. Just to show the type of player he is, Michigan State, Iowa and Nebraska have apparently already contacted him. So while you would assume a small step forward on offense with quarterback health, it’s going to be tough to expect the defense to be anywhere near the same level trying to replace seven starters.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Tommy Lazzaro, Senior |
RB | Romello Ross, Senior |
K | Ryan Tice, Senior |
| . |
LB | Michael Oliver, Senior |
CB | Da'Quan Jamison, Senior |
S | Devonni Reed, Sophomore |