Saturday
| 106. South Alabama Jaguars |
| #7 in Sun Belt |
Joey Jones took the South Alabama job in 2008, with the job of creating the program. He had been the only coach in program history, and had taken the Jaguars to bowl games in two of the previous four years, which is why his resignation following a 2017 season came as a bit of a surprise. So Steve Campbell came in, fresh off of back to back FCS playoff appearances with Central Arkansas, and while 3-9 was not as expected, some of the news to break since the season ended may sort of explain some of it. The transfer portal has really ramped up what had already been an increase in transfers, but perhaps no school was hit as hard as South Alabama, which had 9 players enter their name. While most of them were depth guys, Ryan Alexander was supposed to be anchoring the offensive line as a third year starting tackle. Jordan McCray was the team’s second returning leading receiver. And either way, that number of transfers, on the heels of such a disappointing season, seems to suggest that the program’s second ever coach may be not as well received in the locker room as their first. A major development for the offense could be if Tra Minter can carry his 2018 finish over in 2019. The Jaguars were the worst rushing offense in the Sun Belt, but Minter started to find his stride late, averaging 83.8 ypg over the four games leading up to the finale against Coastal Carolina, after previously averaging just 37.6 ypg prior. Then in the finale against the Chanticleers, he ran wild for 203 yards, on 8.5 ypc, and added 49 receiving yards. Oh, and he’s one of the most dynamic returners in the conference. He is the type of singular talent that makes averaging just 3.7 ypc as a team perplexing. A repeat of that seems unlikely. The Jaguars were actually decent passing the ball, in spite of a complete lack of consistency at the position. South Alabama used three different quarterbacks last year, and all three started at least once, and all three saw action in at least 5 games, but none in more than 10, thanks to a combination of suspensions and injuries. The quarterback competition seems likely to carry through spring and summer with all three returning for the 2019 season. The Jaguars snapped their losing streak to end 2018 using both Evan Orth and Cole Garvin, who were statistically the best, with Orth leading the team in passing efficiency, completion percentage and yards per attempt. In fairness, Campbell seemed to recognize that, and he did get the bulk of the snaps, even with his injury. And Cole Garvin put himself a little bit in the doghouse with a suspension following a fight. But it really seemed like Campbell wanted redshirt freshman to win the battle. So in spite of his dreadful 36.8% completion percentage, he remains part of the battle. In might be part because he’s the hometown kid from right there in Mobile, and part because his legs should be a weapon for him (even though they weren’t), but he still appears to be a factor in the race. While the offense’s inability to run the ball, considering the skill they had there is matched by the defense’s inability to stop it, with the talent they have. The run defense was not bad, it was average, but the defense in anchored by a pair of outstanding defensive tackles in the middle of the line that need to do a better job of holding up against the run. Campbell went young last year, and the Jaguars gave up the most points in the league, so that move should pay off for him this year. Hopefully a year of experience at least cleans up the penalty debacle, which made the scoring numbers worse than the other metrics, with 83.5 yards of penalties per game, the most in the nation by a wide margin.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Tra Minter, Senior |
| WR | Kawann Baker, Junior |
| T | Ryan Alexander, Senior |
| . |
| DT | Tyree Turner, Junior |
| DT | Jordon Beaton, Junior |
| CB | Jalen Thompson, Senior |
| 105. East Carolina Pirates |
| #11 in American |
The Scotty Montgomery disaster years are over, as East Carolina went from being one of the best mid-majors through the 90s and 2000s into an absolute mess, going 9-27 in Montgomery’s three years, including 4-20 in conference play. After going to eight bowl games in nine years from 2006-2014, and 14 since 1992, the Pirates have now been left home for four consecutive years. They haven’t had a five year bowl drought since going 12 years without from 1979-1990, during the Ed Emory and Art Baker years. The Pirates can turn things around quickly, they have before, and they are well situated to succeed. After Steve Logan resigned following a singular bad year in 2002, John Thompson drove the bus clear off the road, going 3-20 in 2003 and 2004, back against a Conference USA schedule. Granted the East Division of the AAC, with UCF, USF, Temple and Cincinnati, is no joke, easily the best mid-major division. Skip Holtz got them back to 5-6 in his first year, before taking them to four consecutive bowl games. So the rebuilding process might not be so long. That task falls to Mike Houston, who won the FCS National Championship at James Madison in 2016, and got back to the title game in 2017, with a playoff appearance in 2018. He grew up in rural North Carolina, playing at small Mars Hill University on the western edge of the state, before coaching high school football in the state for a decade. Beyond his connections to the state, I’m not understanding the hire. He built upon what Everett Withers started there, and Withers had a much better pedigree, before bombing out at Texas State. Houston inherited a championship ready team, and to his credit, won with it, but then seemingly regressed every year. These hires can be a crap shoot, but it seems like they just hired the lesser version of the guy who just failed. Houston’s hiring does mark a change in recent philosophy, towards being more defensive focused. Might as well give that a try, because the last staff completely ignored that side of the ball, leading to some of the worst defenses in the FBS over the past few seasons, while still being fairly bad on offense. The Pirates averaged 84 plays per game last year, third most in the FBS, but even at that pace, they averaged 22.8 ppg, second worst in the American, thanks to a 5.0 ypp average that was worst in the conference. That was with Trevon Brown, who accounted for 33% of East Carolina’s receiving yards, but graduated. Montgomery also continued to flip between quarterbacks, but with the new staff, you would think the job would go to Holton Ahlers, unless a third party emerges. Neither true freshman Ahlers, or sophomore Reid Herring was particularly effective throwing the ball, Herring with slightly better accuracy, but when you are comparing 53.5% to 48.3%, you aren’t making a choice based on accuracy, and even with the lower accuracy numbers, Ahlers was a bigger downfield threat, averaging over 1 yard per attempt more. When you factor in the rushing edge for Ahlers (592 to -67), it seems obvious, Ahlers actually led the team in rushing. Combined rushing and passing attempts, Ahlers held a 6.22 to 4.94 edge. The defense did actually make some improvements last year, after essentially being in the basement across the board statistically in 2017, not just in conference, but nationally, they were actually solid against the run, although the pass defense still struggled. When your defense isn’t going to hold up play to play, you at least need to be able to force turnovers, and the Pirates’ scoring defense sagged below their other metrics based on their inability to do so, forcing a league low 11, being leagues lows both in fumbles recovered (6) and interceptions (5). That pass defense is going to get much less help from the front this year due to the graduation of AAC Defensive Player of the Year Nate Harvey, the first Pirate to win the award, who tied a conference record with 14.5 sacks.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| T | D'Ante Smith, Senior |
| C | John Spellacy, Junior |
| K | Jake Verity, Senior |
| . |
| DT | Alex Turner, Senior |
| LB | Bruce Bivens, Senior |
| S | Davondre Robinson, Junior |
