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bama doesn't either. almost same scenario with osu/psu last year. don't think they'll take the team with no conf champ and a loss to the conf champ, but 1 less loss, this time.

It's the exact same thing.  Bama is 11-1 with a really good OOC win (FSU) but a head to head loss and no CCG appearance.  Auburn is 11-2 with a conference title, no good OOC win.

Committee already showed who they take in that scenario.

It's the exact same thing.  Bama is 11-1 with a really good OOC win (FSU) but a head to head loss and no CCG appearance.  Auburn is 11-2 with a conference title, no good OOC win.

Committee already showed who they take in that scenario.

It is certainly very similar but I don't think it is exactly the same because Bama's OOC win isn't quite as good as tOSU's last year and Auburn's losses aren't nearly as bad as PSU's last year:

• Ohio State's big OOC win last year was against a team that went undefeated in their P5 Conference.  Ohio State also beat Oklahoma big, 45-24 and in a true road game.  I think that Bama's FSU win in this scenario isn't quite as good because:  1) You do NOT have FSU going undefeated in their conference.  2) Bama's win is closer (31-22 vs 45-24) and at a "neutral" site that will HEAVILY favor Bama. 
• Penn State's OOC loss last year was to a Pitt team that was 8-4 when the final rankings were made.  That is substantially worse than Auburn's OOC loss to the defending National Champion Clemson Tigers who you have going 10-2. 
• You don't provide score predictions for non-gameday games but I have to assume that you are not predicting that Auburn will lose to LSU by anything like the 49-10 blowout by Michigan over Penn State last year. 

It is certainly very similar but I don't think it is exactly the same because Bama's OOC win isn't quite as good as tOSU's last year and Auburn's losses aren't nearly as bad as PSU's last year:

• Ohio State's big OOC win last year was against a team that went undefeated in their P5 Conference.  Ohio State also beat Oklahoma big, 45-24 and in a true road game.  I think that Bama's FSU win in this scenario isn't quite as good because:  1) You do NOT have FSU going undefeated in their conference.  2) Bama's win is closer (31-22 vs 45-24) and at a "neutral" site that will HEAVILY favor Bama. 
• Penn State's OOC loss last year was to a Pitt team that was 8-4 when the final rankings were made.  That is substantially worse than Auburn's OOC loss to the defending National Champion Clemson Tigers who you have going 10-2. 
• You don't provide score predictions for non-gameday games but I have to assume that you are not predicting that Auburn will lose to LSU by anything like the 49-10 blowout by Michigan over Penn State last year. 

plus people feel osu was wrong team after the clemson beatdown. not sure committee will cave to pressure, but they'd be under a lot of it if this happened. i don't think they'd take bama. jmo.

plus people feel osu was wrong team after the clemson beatdown. not sure committee will cave to pressure, but they'd be under a lot of it if this happened. i don't think they'd take bama. jmo.

It would be a heck of an interesting debate and there is no doubt that the Ohio State / Penn State precedent would be brought up by both sides. 


Stipulate the following:

• OkSU, Stanford, and Ohio State are clearly in as undefeated or 1-loss P5 Champions. 
• The ACC Champion (FSU) is clearly out because they have three losses. 
• The other two-loss non-champions clearly are not getting in ahead of a 2-loss Champion or a 1-loss non-Champion. 

Thus you have four contenders for one spot.  Using ELA's projected final rankings, their record against ranked teams is (tell me if I missed any):

• 12-1 B1GCG loser Wisconsin:  Lost to #3 Ohio State, Beat #8 Michigan, Beat #21 Northwestern
• 11-1 non-Champion Alabama:  Lost to #5 Auburn, Beat #9 FSU, Beat #23 Tennessee, Beat #25 LSU
• 11-1 non-Champion Penn State:  Lost to #3 Ohio State, Beat #8 Michigan, Beat #21 Northwestern
• 11-2 SEC Champion Auburn:  Beat #4 Alabama, Beat #10 Florida, Lost to #11 Clemson, Lost to #25 LSU

IMHO, Auburn has the toughest SoS.  Wisconsin and Penn State have three ranked opponents each.  Bama and Auburn have four. 


I think based on the SoS I think that Wisconsin and Penn State are eliminated.  They are very similar to Bama but with worse SoS. 


That leaves just Auburn and Bama.  Comparing the two:

• They played each other (roughly a wash)
• They both played LSU (call it a wash)
• They each played a highly ranked Florida School in Atlanta:  #9 FSU for Bama, #10 UF for Auburn (call it a wash)
• Bama's other ranked opponent was #23 Tennessee. 
• Auburn's other ranked opponent was #11 Clemson. 

I'd give it to Auburn because:

• They are the SEC Champion, and
• They won the H2H, and
• They had the tougher schedule. 

Last year PSU had two of the three but that wasn't enough because:

• Their losses were really bad (Pitt because of the opponent, Michigan because of the score). 
• They clearly and obviously did NOT play a tougher schedule. 

I think as long as it's mildly plausible the committee will try and get that to happen.  In this case, I think it's obvious what the top 3 will be, and it just so happens to work out.

BOWL SCHEDULE
Saturday, December 16
NEW ORLEANS - Middle Tennessee d. UL Monroe
CURE - Colorado State d. SMU
LAS VEGAS - San Diego State d. Oregon
NEW MEXICO - Air Force d. Southern Miss
CAMELLIA - New Mexico d. Central Michigan

Tuesday, December 19
BOCA RATON - Louisiana Tech d. Cincinnati

Wednesday, December 20
FRISCO - Troy d. Navy

Thursday, December 21
GASPARILLA - Temple d. Old Dominion

Friday, December 22
BAHAMAS - Ohio d. FIU
POTATO - Boise State d. Miami(Ohio)

Saturday, December 23
BIRMINGHAM - Memphis d. South Carolina
ARMED FORCES - Boston College d. Army
DOLLAR GENERAL - Toledo d. Idaho

Sunday, December 24
HAWAII - Houston d. Hawaii

Tuesday, December 26
CACTUS - Utah d. Texas
QUICK LANE - Western Michigan d. Wake Forest
HEART OF DALLAS - Baylor d. UTSA

Wednesday, December 27
INDEPENDENCE - North Carolina d. Western Kentucky
PINSTRIPE - #20 Virginia Tech d. NEBRASKA
TEXAS - TCU d. Kentucky
FOSTER FARMS - #16 Washington d. BYU

Thursday, December 28
MILITARY - NC State d. Tulsa
CAMPING WORLD - #18 Louisville d. #22 Kansas State
ALAMO - #15 USC d. #24 Oklahoma
HOLIDAY - #12 Colorado d. IOWA

Friday, December 29
BELK - Pittsburgh d. Vanderbilt
SUN - #13 Miami d. #17 Washington State
MUSIC CITY - Arkansas d. #19 Georgia Tech
COTTON - #7 PENN STATE d. #11 Clemson

Saturday, December 30
TAXSLAYER - Georgia d. INDIANA
LIBERTY - Texas A&M d. West Virginia
ARIZONA - Appalachian State d. Wyoming
ORANGE - #9 Florida State d. #5 Auburn
FIESTA - #8 MICHIGAN d. #14 South Florida

Monday, January 1
OUTBACK - #25 LSU d. MINNESOTA
CITRUS - #23 Tennessee d. #21 NORTHWESTERN
PEACH - #6 WISCONSIN d. #10 Florida

ROSE - #2 Stanford 24, #3 OHIO STATE 23
SUGAR - #4 Alabama 35, #1 Oklahoma State 24

ACC
ATLANTIC
Florida State (7-1) 11-3
Louisville (6-2) 11-2
Clemson (6-2) 10-3
NC State (4-4) 9-4
Wake Forest (4-4) 6-7
Boston College (2-6) 7-6
Syracuse (0-8) 3-9

COASTAL
Miami (7-1) 12-2
Virginia Tech (6-2) 11-2
Georgia Tech (6-2) 10-3
Pittsburgh (5-3) 8-5
North Carolina (2-6) 7-6
Duke (1-7) 4-8
Virginia (0-8) 2-10

BIG XII
Oklahoma State (9-0) 13-1
Kansas State (8-1) 10-4
Oklahoma (7-2) 9-4
TCU (6-3) 9-4
West Virginia (5-4) 7-6
Texas (4-5) 6-7
Baylor (3-6) 6-7
Texas Tech (2-7) 4-8
Iowa State (1-8) 3-9
Kansas (0-9) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (8-1) 12-2
Penn State (8-1) 12-1
Michigan (7-2) 11-2
Indiana (3-6) 6-7
Michigan State (3-6) 4-8
Maryland (2-7) 4-8
Rutgers (1-8) 2-10

WEST
Wisconsin (9-0) 13-1
Northwestern (7-2) 10-3
Minnesota (5-4) 7-6
Iowa (4-5) 7-6
Nebraska (4-5) 6-7
Illinois (1-8) 2-10
Purdue (1-8) 2-10

PAC 12
NORTH
Stanford (8-1) 13-2
Washington (7-2) 11-2
Washington State (7-2) 10-3
Oregon (4-5) 6-7
California (2-7) 4-8
Oregon State (2-7) 4-8

SOUTH
Colorado (8-1) 12-2
USC (7-2) 11-2
Utah (4-5) 7-6
UCLA (4-5) 5-7
Arizona State (1-8) 2-10
Arizona (0-9) 2-10

SEC
EAST
Florida (8-0) 11-3
Tennessee (6-2) 10-3
Georgia (5-3) 9-4
Vanderbilt (3-5) 7-6
Kentucky (3-5) 6-7
South Carolina (3-5) 5-8
Missouri (0-8) 4-8

WEST
Auburn (7-1) 11-3
Alabama (7-1) 13-1
LSU (5-3) 10-3
Arkansas (4-4) 9-4
Texas A&M (4-4) 9-4
Mississippi State (1-7) 5-7
Ole Miss (0-8) 3-9

AMERICAN
EAST
South Florida (8-0) 13-1
Temple (4-4) 8-5
Cincinnati (4-4) 6-7
Central Florida (3-5) 5-7
Connecticut (1-7) 2-10
East Carolina (0-8) 1-11

WEST
Tulsa (7-1) 9-5
Houston (6-2) 11-2
Memphis (6-2) 11-2
Navy (4-4) 7-6
SMU (3-5) 6-7
Tulane (2-6) 4-8

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
Old Dominion (8-0) 11-3
Western Kentucky (7-1) 10-3
Middle Tennessee (6-2) 8-5
FIU (4-4) 6-7
Charlotte (3-5) 5-7
Florida Atlantic (3-5) 4-8
Marshall (0-8) 1-11

WEST
Louisiana Tech (7-1) 10-4
Southern Miss (6-2) 7-6
UTSA (4-4) 6-7
North Texas (3-5) 4-8
UAB (2-6) 4-8
UTEP (2-6) 2-10
Rice (1-7) 1-11

MAC
EAST
Ohio (6-2) 10-4
Miami(Ohio) (6-2) 9-4
Akron (4-4) 5-7
Kent State (3-5) 4-8
Bowling Green (2-6) 3-9
Buffalo (1-7) 3-9

WEST
Toledo (7-1) 12-2
Western Michigan (7-1) 11-2
Central Michigan (4-4) 6-7
Northern Illinois (4-4) 5-7
Eastern Michigan (3-5) 5-7
Ball State (1-7) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
Boise State (7-1) 10-4
Wyoming (6-2) 9-4
Air Force (5-3) 8-5
New Mexico (5-3) 8-5
Colorado State (4-4) 7-6
Utah State (0-8) 1-11

PACIFIC
San Diego State (7-1) 12-2
Hawaii (6-2) 8-5
Fresno State (2-6) 3-9
Nevada (2-6) 3-9
UNLV (2-6) 3-9
San Jose State (2-6) 3-10

SUN BELT
Appalachian State (8-0) 12-1
Troy (8-0) 11-2
Idaho (6-2) 8-5
UL Monroe (4-4) 6-8
Louisiana (4-4) 5-7
NM State (4-4) 5-7
South Alabama (4-4) 5-7
Arkansas State (3-5) 4-8
Georgia Southern (3-5) 4-8
Georgia State (3-5) 4-8
Texas State (1-7) 2-10
Coastal Carolina (0-8) 2-10

INDEPENDENTS
BYU (9-5)
Army (6-7)
Notre Dame (5-7)
Massachusetts (3-9)