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Topic: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions

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ELA

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ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« on: August 07, 2017, 08:13:41 AM »
Can't believe we are that close to kicking it off again.  Since we actually have a quasi-real poll already out, I'll use that as the preseason poll...


1. Alabama (0-0)
2. OHIO STATE (0-0)
3. Florida State (0-0)
4. USC (0-0)
5. Clemson (0-0)
6. PENN STATE (0-0)
7. Washington (0-0)
8. Oklahoma (0-0)
9. MICHIGAN (0-0)
10. WISCONSIN (0-0)
11. Oklahoma State (0-0)
12. LSU (0-0)
13. Auburn (0-0)
14. Stanford (0-0)
15. Georgia (0-0)
16. Florida (0-0)
17. Louisville (0-0)
18. Miami (0-0)
19. Kansas State (0-0)
20. West Virginia (0-0)
21. South Florida (0-0)
22. Virginia Tech (0-0)
23. Texas (0-0)
24. Tennessee (0-0)
25. Utah (0-0)
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2017, 01:09:00 PM »

WEEK 1
Saturday, August 26
#14 Stanford d. Rice
#21 South Florida d. San Jose State


BYU d. Portland State
Colorado State d. Oregon State
Massachusetts d. Hawaii


Thursday, August 31
#2 OHIO STATE d. INDIANA
#11 Oklahoma State d. Tulsa
#25 Utah d. North Dakota


Arizona State d. NM State
Arkansas d. Florida A&M
Central Florida d. FIU
Central Michigan d. Rhode Island
Cincinnati d. Austin Peay
Connecticut d. Holy Cross
Georgia State d. Tennessee State
Idaho d. Sacramento State
Memphis d. UL Monroe
MINNESOTA d. Buffalo
Toledo d. Elon
Wake Forest d. Presbyterian


Friday, September 1
#7 Washington d. RUTGERS
#10 WISCONSIN d. Utah State


Army d. Fordham
Boston College d. Northern Illinois
Colorado d. Colorado State
Eastern Michigan d. Charlotte
Navy d. Florida Atlantic
Syracuse d. Central Connecticut


Saturday, September 2
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#1 Alabama 31, #3 Florida State 22


#4 USC d. Western Michigan
#5 Clemson d. Kent State
#6 PENN STATE d. Akron
#8 Oklahoma d. UTEP
#9 MICHIGAN d. #16 Florida
#12 LSU d. BYU
#13 Auburn d. Georgia Southern
#15 Georgia d. Appalachian State
#17 Louisville d. PURDUE
#18 Miami d. Bethune-Cookman
#19 Kansas State d. Central Arkansas
#21 South Florida d. Stony Brook
#23 Texas d. MARYLAND


Air Force d. VMI
Arizona d. Northern Arizona
Baylor d. Liberty
Boise State d. Troy
Coastal Carolina d. Massachusetts
Duke d. NC Central
East Carolina d. James Madison
Fresno State d. Incarnate Word
Hawaii d. Western Carolina
Houston d. UTSA
ILLINOIS d. Ball State
IOWA d. Wyoming
Iowa State d. Northern Iowa
Kansas d. SE Missouri State
Kentucky d. Southern Miss
Louisiana d. SE Louisiana
Louisiana Tech d. Northwestern State
Miami(Ohio) d. Marshall
MICHIGAN STATE d. Bowling Green
Mississippi State d. Charleston Southern
Missouri d. Missouri State
NC State d. South Carolina
NEBRASKA d. Arkansas State
New Mexico d. Abilene Christian
North Carolina d. California
North Texas d. Lamar
NORTHWESTERN d. Nevada
Notre Dame d. Temple
Ohio d. Hampton
Old Dominion d. Albany
Ole Miss d. South Alabama
Oregon d. Southern Utah
Oregon State d. Portland State
Pittsburgh d. Youngstown State
San Diego State d. UC Davis
San Jose State d. Cal Poly
SMU d. Stephen F. Austin
TCU d. Jackson State
Texas State d. Houston Baptist
Texas Tech d. Eastern Washington
Tulane d. Grambling
UAB d. Alabama A&M
UNLV d. Howard
Vanderbilt d. Middle Tennessee
Virginia d. William & Mary
Washington State d. Montana State
Western Kentucky d. Eastern Kentucky


Sunday, September 3
#22 Virginia Tech d. #20 West Virginia


Texas A&M d. UCLA


Monday, September 4
Georgia Tech d. #24 Tennessee
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rolltidefan

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2017, 03:05:42 PM »
woohoo, love this.

can't remember from last year, do you still use ncaa football 14 for this, or is there another simulation you use or just your best guess?

gassy ass.
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2017, 04:45:29 PM »
ACC
ATLANTIC
Boston College (0-0) 1-0
Clemson (0-0) 1-0
Louisville (0-0) 1-0
NC State (0-0) 1-0
Syracuse (0-0) 1-0
Wake Forest (0-0) 1-0
Florida State (0-0) 0-1

COASTAL
Duke (0-0) 1-0
Georgia Tech (0-0) 1-0
Miami (0-0) 1-0
North Carolina (0-0) 1-0
Pittsburgh (0-0) 1-0
Virginia (0-0) 1-0
Virginia Tech (0-0) 1-0

BIG XII
Baylor (0-0) 1-0
Iowa State (0-0) 1-0
Kansas (0-0) 1-0
Kansas State (0-0) 1-0
Oklahoma (0-0) 1-0
Oklahoma State (0-0) 1-0
TCU (0-0) 1-0
Texas (0-0) 1-0
Texas Tech (0-0) 1-0
West Virginia (0-0) 0-1

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (1-0) 1-0
Michigan (0-0) 1-0
Michigan State (0-0) 1-0
Penn State (0-0) 1-0
Maryland (0-0) 0-1
Rutgers (0-0) 0-1
Indiana (0-1) 0-1

WEST
Illinois (0-0) 1-0
Iowa (0-0) 1-0
Minnesota (0-0) 1-0
Nebraska (0-0) 1-0
Northwestern (0-0) 1-0
Wisconsin (0-0) 1-0
Purdue (0-0) 0-1

PAC 12
NORTH
Oregon (0-0) 1-0
Stanford (0-0) 1-0
Washington (0-0) 1-0
Washington State (0-0) 1-0
Oregon State (0-0) 1-1
California (0-0) 0-1

SOUTH
Arizona (0-0) 1-0
Arizona State (0-0) 1-0
Colorado (0-0) 1-0
USC (0-0) 1-0
Utah (0-0) 1-0
UCLA (0-0) 0-1

SEC
EAST
Georgia (0-0) 1-0
Kentucky (0-0) 1-0
Missouri (0-0) 1-0
Vanderbilt (0-0) 1-0
Florida (0-0) 0-1
South Carolina (0-0) 0-1
Tennessee (0-0) 0-1

WEST
Alabama (0-0) 1-0
Arkansas (0-0) 1-0
Auburn (0-0) 1-0
LSU (0-0) 1-0
Mississippi State (0-0) 1-0
Ole Miss (0-0) 1-0
Texas A&M (0-0) 1-0

AMERICAN
EAST
South Florida (0-0) 2-0
Central Florida (0-0) 1-0
Cincinnati (0-0) 1-0
Connecticut (0-0) 1-0
East Carolina (0-0) 1-0
Temple (0-0) 0-1

WEST
Houston (0-0) 1-0
Memphis (0-0) 1-0
Navy (0-0) 1-0
SMU (0-0) 1-0
Tulane (0-0) 1-0
Tulsa (0-0) 0-1

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
Old Dominion (0-0) 1-0
Western Kentucky (0-0) 1-0
Charlotte (0-0) 0-1
FIU (0-0) 0-1
Florida Atlantic (0-0) 0-1
Marshall (0-0) 0-1
Middle Tennessee (0-0) 0-1

WEST
Louisiana Tech (0-0) 1-0
North Texas (0-0) 1-0
UAB (0-0) 1-0
Rice (0-0) 0-1
Southern Miss (0-0) 0-1
UTEP (0-0) 0-1
UTSA (0-0) 0-1

MAC
EAST
Miami(Ohio) (0-0) 1-0
Ohio (0-0) 1-0
Akron (0-0) 0-1
Bowling Green (0-0) 0-1
Buffalo (0-0) 0-1
Kent State (0-0) 0-1

WEST
Central Michigan (0-0) 1-0
Eastern Michigan (0-0) 1-0
Toledo (0-0) 1-0
Ball State (0-0) 0-1
Northern Illinois (0-0) 0-1
Western Michigan (0-0) 0-1

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
Air Force (0-0) 1-0
Boise State (0-0) 1-0
New Mexico (0-0) 1-0
Colorado State (0-0) 1-1
Utah State (0-0) 0-1
Wyoming (0-0) 0-1

PACIFIC
Fresno State (0-0) 1-0
San Diego State (0-0) 1-0
UNLV (0-0) 1-0
Hawaii (0-0) 1-1
San Jose State (0-0) 1-1
Nevada (0-0) 0-1

SUN BELT
Coastal Carolina (0-0) 1-0
Georgia State (0-0) 1-0
Idaho (0-0) 1-0
Louisiana (0-0) 1-0
Texas State (0-0) 1-0
Appalachian State (0-0) 0-1
Arkansas State (0-0) 0-1
Georgia Southern (0-0) 0-1
NM State (0-0) 0-1
South Alabama (0-0) 0-1
Troy (0-0) 0-1
UL Monroe (0-0) 0-1

INDEPENDENTS
Army (1-0)
Notre Dame (1-0)
BYU (1-1)
Massachusetts (1-1)
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2017, 04:45:53 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 07, 2017, 03:05:42 PM
woohoo, love this.

can't remember from last year, do you still use ncaa football 14 for this, or is there another simulation you use or just your best guess?

gassy ass.
These ones are my picks.  The postseason tourney is the PS3 sim.
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2017, 05:52:18 PM »
September 5 Poll
1. Alabama (1-0)
2. OHIO STATE (1-0)
3. USC (1-0)
4. Clemson (1-0)
5. PENN STATE (1-0)
6. Washington (1-0)
7. Oklahoma (1-0)
8. MICHIGAN (1-0)
9. Florida State (0-1)
10. WISCONSIN (1-0)
11. Oklahoma State (1-0)
12. LSU (1-0)
13. Auburn (1-0)
14. Stanford (1-0)
15. Georgia (1-0)
16. Louisville (1-0)
17. Miami (1-0)
18. Kansas State (1-0)
19. Virginia Tech (1-0)
20. South Florida (2-0)
21. Texas (1-0)
22. Georgia Tech (1-0)
23. Florida (0-1)
24. Utah (1-0)
25. Washington State (1-0)
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2017, 07:40:57 PM »
Did you go chalk?


It does not appear as though you picked a single upset.


Technically 22VA Tech over 20W Virginia is an upset, I suppose, but it's in Blacksburg.


Colorado St at home over OSU3?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2017, 07:45:38 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 07, 2017, 07:40:57 PM
Did you go chalk?

It does not appear as though you picked a single upset.

Technically 22VA Tech over 20W Virginia is an upset, I suppose, but it's in Blacksburg.

Colorado St at home over OSU3?
He also has GaTech over #24 Tennessee.  Thus the poll changes are:
  • #4 USC, #5 Clemson, #6 PSU, #7 Washington, #8 OU, and #9 M each move up one while FSU moves down six. 
  • #17 LVille, #18 Miami, #19 KSU, #21 USF, and #24 Utah each move up one. 
  • #22 VaTech moves up three. 
  • #20 WVU and #24 Tennessee drop out. 
  • #23 Texas moves up two. 
  • #22 GaTech (for beating #24 Tennessee) and #25 WSU (for beating Montana State) are new to the poll. 
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2017, 07:50:54 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 07, 2017, 07:40:57 PM
Did you go chalk?


It does not appear as though you picked a single upset.


Technically 22VA Tech over 20W Virginia is an upset, I suppose, but it's in Blacksburg.


Colorado St at home over OSU3?
I don't see a ton of room for upsets in Week 1.  At least ones I'd predict, something always happens.  It's kind of a lackluster Week 1 after the last couple of years.  GT over Tennessee I assume would be an upset.  Is Texas A&M winning in the Rose Bowl an upset?

Two years ago I had Minnesota over #2 TCU and VT over #1 OSU on opening weekend, and it didn't exactly pan out.
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PSUinNC

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2017, 10:43:35 AM »
The Bama/FSU game will be interesting.  I suspect if FSU loses, they'll drop like ELA predicted (and shouldn't, I don't think they should drop below 5 myself, but they will).  However if Bama loses, they'll drop maybe to 5 at worst.

Polls are dumb. 
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2017, 10:45:35 AM »
Quote from: PSUinNC on August 08, 2017, 10:43:35 AM
The Bama/FSU game will be interesting.  I suspect if FSU loses, they'll drop like ELA predicted (and shouldn't, I don't think they should drop below 5 myself, but they will).  However if Bama loses, they'll drop maybe to 5 at worst.

Polls are dumb. 
Yeah, the trick is reflecting what will actually happen in the polls vs. what should happen.  I think they've gotten a little better in the last couple years about not punishing teams quite so much for expected losses, but who knows.  The tricky spot is that Michigan will have picked up a pretty good win, so I suspect FSU would slide behind Michigan, but was Michigan's win so good that they could leapfrog a couple teams ahead of them?  Not sure.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 11:31:18 AM »
Quote from: ELA on August 08, 2017, 10:45:35 AM
Yeah, the trick is reflecting what will actually happen in the polls vs. what should happen.  I think they've gotten a little better in the last couple years about not punishing teams quite so much for expected losses, but who knows.  The tricky spot is that Michigan will have picked up a pretty good win, so I suspect FSU would slide behind Michigan, but was Michigan's win so good that they could leapfrog a couple teams ahead of them?  Not sure.
My supposition here is that it has a LOT to do with the scores and what the former chair of the CFP ranking committee called "game control". 


In your projections #1 Bama beat #3 FSU 31-22 and you don't give a score for #9 Michigan over #16 Florida.  If Bama scores a late TD to make a highly competitive 24-22 game into a 31-22 win while Michigan beats Florida in the final seconds or OT then I don't think that Michigan will (or should) pass FSU.  On the other hand, if FSU scores two late TD's to turn a 31-8 blowout into a superficially respectable 31-22 loss while Michigan beats the tar out of the Gators then I think Michigan will (and should) pass FSU. 


The score factor is also relevant for the other teams involved in the higher rankings:
  • #2 Ohio State will be expected to beat Indiana rather handily on Thursday night. 
  • #4 USC will be expected to beat WMU rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #5 Clemson will be expected to beat Kent rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #6 Penn State will be expected to beat Akron rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #7 Washington will be expected to beat Rutgers rather handily on Friday although the game is in New Jersey so Washington would get some leeway based on the travel. 
  • #8 Oklahoma will be expected to beat UTEP rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #10 Wisconsin will be expected to beat Utah State rather handily on Friday. 
  • #11 OkSU will be expected to beat Tulsa rather handily on Thursday. 
Note that all of the teams mentioned are hosting except Bama/FSU (neutral, Atlanta), Mich/FL (neutral, Texas), Ohio State (at Indiana), and Washington (at Rutgers).  At least one will likely have a close call and drop for it. 
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PSUinNC

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 12:32:09 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 08, 2017, 11:31:18 AM
My supposition here is that it has a LOT to do with the scores and what the former chair of the CFP ranking committee called "game control". 


In your projections #1 Bama beat #3 FSU 31-22 and you don't give a score for #9 Michigan over #16 Florida.  If Bama scores a late TD to make a highly competitive 24-22 game into a 31-22 win while Michigan beats Florida in the final seconds or OT then I don't think that Michigan will (or should) pass FSU.  On the other hand, if FSU scores two late TD's to turn a 31-8 blowout into a superficially respectable 31-22 loss while Michigan beats the tar out of the Gators then I think Michigan will (and should) pass FSU. 


The score factor is also relevant for the other teams involved in the higher rankings:
  • #2 Ohio State will be expected to beat Indiana rather handily on Thursday night. 
  • #4 USC will be expected to beat WMU rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #5 Clemson will be expected to beat Kent rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #6 Penn State will be expected to beat Akron rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #7 Washington will be expected to beat Rutgers rather handily on Friday although the game is in New Jersey so Washington would get some leeway based on the travel. 
  • #8 Oklahoma will be expected to beat UTEP rather handily on Saturday. 
  • #10 Wisconsin will be expected to beat Utah State rather handily on Friday. 
  • #11 OkSU will be expected to beat Tulsa rather handily on Thursday. 
Note that all of the teams mentioned are hosting except Bama/FSU (neutral, Atlanta), Mich/FL (neutral, Texas), Ohio State (at Indiana), and Washington (at Rutgers).  At least one will likely have a close call and drop for it. 

Don't be surprised if PSU has a hangover game with Akron.  The Zips have an excellent coaching staff. 
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ELA

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Re: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2017, 01:29:50 PM »
WEEK 2
Thursday, September 7
Utah State d. Idaho State

Friday, September 8
#11 Oklahoma State d. South Alabama
PURDUE d. Ohio

Saturday, September 9
ESPN College Gameday, live from Columbus, OH
#2 OHIO STATE 44, #7 Oklahoma 21

#1 Alabama d. Fresno State
#3 USC d. #14 Stanford
#4 Clemson d. #13 Auburn
#5 PENN STATE d. Pittsburgh
#6 Washington d. Montana
#8 MICHIGAN d. Cincinnati
#9 Florida State d. UL Monroe
#10 WISCONSIN d. Florida Atlantic
#12 LSU d. Chattanooga
#15 Georgia d. Notre Dame
#16 Louisville d. North Carolina
#17 Miami d. Arkansas State
#18 Kansas State d. Charlotte
#19 Virginia Tech d. Delaware
#20 South Florida d. Connecticut
#21 Texas d. San Jose State
#22 Georgia Tech d. Jacksonville State
#23 Florida d. Northern Colorado
BYU d. #24 Utah
#25 Washington State d. Boise State

Akron d. UA-Pine Bluff
Appalachian State d. Savannah State
Arkansas d. TCU
Army d. Buffalo
Ball State d. UAB
Baylor d. UTSA
Bowling Green d. South Dakota
California d. Weber State
Central Michigan d. Kansas
Colorado d. Texas State
Colorado State d. Abilene Christian
Eastern Michigan d. RUTGERS
FIU d. Alcorn State
Georgia Southern d. New Hampshire
Houston d. Arizona
Idaho d. UNLV
INDIANA d. Virginia
IOWA d. Iowa State
Kent State d. Howard
Kentucky d. Eastern Kentucky
MARYLAND d. Towson
Memphis d. Central Florida
Miami(Ohio) d. Austin Peay
Mississippi State d. Louisiana Tech
Navy d. Tulane
NC State d. Marshall
New Mexico d. NM State
Northern Illinois d. Eastern Illinois
NORTHWESTERN d. Duke
Old Dominion d. Massachusetts
Ole Miss d. UT Martin
Oregon d. NEBRASKA
Oregon State d. MINNESOTA
San Diego State d. Arizona State
SMU d. North Texas
South Carolina d. Missouri
Southern Miss d. Southern
Syracuse d. Middle Tennessee
Temple d. Villanova
Tennessee d. Indiana State
Texas A&M d. Nicholls
Toledo d. Nevada
Troy d. Alabama State
Tulsa d. Louisiana
UCLA d. Hawaii
UTEP d. Rice
Vanderbilt d. Alabama A&M
Wake Forest d. Boston College
West Virginia d. East Carolina
Western Kentucky d. ILLINOIS
Western Michigan d. MICHIGAN STATE
Wyoming d. Gardner-Webb
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