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Topic: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions
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847badgerfan · « **Reply #98 on:** August 23, 2017, 11:26:18 AM »

Florida also plays Florida State. Tough schedule.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #99 on:** August 23, 2017, 11:38:29 AM »

In my last post I analyzed what would happen if we had the maximum (five) undefeated or one-loss P5 Champions. In this post I'll do the opposite and analyze what would happen if we had the minimum (two) undefeated or one-loss P5 Champions:

First, in order for this to happen:

Florida State (9-3) needs to beat Miami (11-1) in the ACCCG
Kansas State (10-2) needs to beat OkSU (12-0) in the B12CG
Auburn (10-2) needs to beat Florida (11-1) in the SECCG

Second, I am further assuming that Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the B1GCG. The reason for this assumption is simply because it makes the question more interesting. An 11-2 Ohio State coming off of two-straight losses is not in the discussion while a 12-1 Wisconsin is.

IMHO the Pac12CG winner is in. This would be either 12-1 Colorado or 12-1 Stanford. Additionally the B1GCG winner would be in with no regard to whether it was 12-1 Ohio State or 13-0 Wisconsin. After that it gets really dicey. The contenders:

10-3 ACC Champion Florida State
11-2 B12 Champion Kansas State
11-2 SEC Champion Auburn
11-1 Bama
12-1 B1GCG loser Wisconsin

IMHO it would be Bama and probably Wisconsin (provided that Wisconsin put up a good fight in their CG). The ACC and B12 would be out and the B1G would be the first conference to put two teams in the CFP. However, I would alter this prediction if either:

Auburn thoroughly dominated Florida in the SECCG, or
Ohio State thoroughly dominated Wisconsin in the B1GCG.

FWIW: If you alter the assumptions and assume that Wisconsin wins the B1G then I think the playoff field would likely be:

13-0 B1G Champion Wisconsin
12-1 P12 Champion (Colorado/Stanford)
11-1 Alabama
11-2 SEC Champion Auburn

In that case I would expect the Auburn/Wisconsin winner to play Bama in the NC.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #100 on:** August 23, 2017, 11:39:33 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 23, 2017, 11:26:18 AM

Florida also plays Florida State. Tough schedule.

Easily the toughest of the group. They absolutely are in as a 12-1 SEC Champion.

ELA · « **Reply #101 on:** August 23, 2017, 02:43:18 PM »

ACC
ATLANTIC
Florida State (7-1) 9-3
Clemson (6-2) 10-2
Louisville (6-2) 10-2
NC State (4-4) 8-4
Wake Forest (4-4) 6-6
Boston College (2-6) 6-6
Syracuse (0-8) 3-9

COASTAL
Miami (7-1) 12-1
Georgia Tech (6-2) 10-2
Virginia Tech (6-2) 10-2
Pittsburgh (5-3) 7-5
North Carolina (2-6) 6-6
Duke (1-7) 4-8
Virginia (0-8) 2-10

BIG XII
Oklahoma State (9-0) 12-0
Kansas State (8-1) 10-2
Oklahoma (7-2) 9-3
TCU (6-3) 8-4
West Virginia (5-4) 7-5
Texas (4-5) 6-6
Baylor (3-6) 5-7
Texas Tech (2-7) 4-8
Iowa State (1-8) 3-9
Kansas (0-9) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST
Ohio State (8-1) 11-1
Penn State (8-1) 11-1
Michigan (7-2) 10-2
Indiana (3-6) 6-6
Michigan State (3-6) 4-8
Maryland (2-7) 4-8
Rutgers (1-8) 2-10

WEST
Wisconsin (9-0) 12-0
Northwestern (7-2) 10-2
Minnesota (5-4) 7-5
Iowa (4-5) 7-5
Nebraska (4-5) 6-6
Illinois (1-8) 2-10
Purdue (1-8) 2-10

PAC 12
NORTH
Stanford (8-1) 11-1
Washington (7-2) 10-2
Washington State (7-2) 10-2
Oregon (4-5) 6-6
California (2-7) 4-8
Oregon State (2-7) 4-8

SOUTH
Colorado (8-1) 11-1
USC (7-2) 10-2
Utah (4-5) 6-6
UCLA (4-5) 5-7
Arizona State (1-8) 2-10
Arizona (0-9) 2-10

SEC
EAST
Florida (8-0) 11-1
Tennessee (6-2) 9-3
Georgia (5-3) 8-4
Vanderbilt (3-5) 7-5
Kentucky (3-5) 6-6
South Carolina (3-5) 5-7
Missouri (0-8) 4-8

WEST
Auburn (7-1) 10-2
Alabama (7-1) 11-1
LSU (5-3) 9-3
Arkansas (4-4) 8-4
Texas A&M (4-4) 8-4
Mississippi State (1-7) 5-7
Ole Miss (0-8) 3-9

AMERICAN
EAST
South Florida (8-0) 12-0
Temple (4-4) 7-5
Cincinnati (4-4) 6-6
Central Florida (3-5) 5-7
Connecticut (1-7) 2-10
East Carolina (0-8) 1-11

WEST
Tulsa (7-1) 9-3
Houston (6-2) 10-2
Memphis (6-2) 10-2
Navy (4-4) 6-5
SMU (3-5) 6-6
Tulane (2-6) 4-8

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
Old Dominion (8-0) 10-2
Western Kentucky (7-1) 10-2
Middle Tennessee (6-2) 7-5
FIU (4-4) 6-6
Charlotte (3-5) 5-7
Florida Atlantic (3-5) 4-8
Marshall (0-8) 1-11

WEST
Louisiana Tech (7-1) 9-3
Southern Miss (6-2) 7-5
UTSA (4-4) 6-6
North Texas (3-5) 4-8
UAB (2-6) 4-8
UTEP (2-6) 2-10
Rice (1-7) 1-11

MAC
EAST
Ohio (6-2) 9-3
Miami(Ohio) (6-2) 9-3
Akron (4-4) 5-7
Kent State (3-5) 4-8
Bowling Green (2-6) 3-9
Buffalo (1-7) 3-9

WEST
Toledo (7-1) 10-2
Western Michigan (7-1) 10-2
Central Michigan (4-4) 6-6
Northern Illinois (4-4) 5-7
Eastern Michigan (3-5) 5-7
Ball State (1-7) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
Boise State (7-1) 9-3
Wyoming (6-2) 9-3
Air Force (5-3) 7-5
New Mexico (5-3) 7-5
Colorado State (4-4) 6-6
Utah State (0-8) 1-11

PACIFIC
San Diego State (7-1) 10-2
Hawaii (6-2) 8-4
Fresno State (2-6) 3-9
Nevada (2-6) 3-9
UNLV (2-6) 3-9
San Jose State (2-6) 3-10

SUN BELT
Appalachian State (7-0) 10-1
Troy (7-0) 9-2
Idaho (5-2) 7-4
Louisiana (4-3) 5-6
South Alabama (4-3) 5-6
UL Monroe (4-4) 6-7
Arkansas State (3-4) 4-7
Georgia State (3-4) 4-7
NM State (3-4) 4-7
Georgia Southern (2-5) 3-8
Texas State (1-7) 2-10
Coastal Carolina (0-7) 2-9

INDEPENDENTS
BYU (9-4)
Army (6-5)
Notre Dame (5-7)
Massachusetts (3-9)

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #102 on:** August 23, 2017, 04:21:14 PM »

I'm anxious to see how you project the lost poll before the CG's with all the losses you project in the final week:

#1 Alabama losing at #18 Auburn
#2 Ohio State losing at #12 Michigan
#9 Florida State losing at #11 Florida
#10 Washington State losing at #16 Washington

Obviously #11 Florida (now 11-1 and on an 11 game winning streak) will move up considerably.
#12 Michigan will also move up as well but with two losses they'll hit a ceiling long before the Gators.
#16 Washington is similar to Michigan with the two losses and beating #10 WSU isn't as impressive as beating #2 tOSU.
#18 Auburn (now 10-2) has the most impressive win of the weekend (season?) but similar to Michigan they have two losses so they will hit a ceiling.

With their losses to rivals Alabama and Ohio State join the 1-loss club along with Stanford, PSU, Miami, Colorado, and Florida. How far will they fall? They both still have some impressive wins on their resumes.

Florida State's loss makes them very hard to rank. They will be a 9-3 team but the three losses were to Bama, Clemson (IIRC), and Florida so we are talking about losses to very good teams.

What to do with Auburn? The Bama win is great but losses to #25 LSU and #13 Clemson hold them back. How far can they climb?

My projection based on these projections (what I think would happen not necessarily what I think should happen):

Wisconsin (12-0)
Oklahoma State (12-0)
Stanford (11-1)
Florida (11-1)
Alabama (11-1)
Ohio State (11-1)
Penn State (11-1)
Auburn (10-2)
Michigan (10-2)
Miami (11-1)
Colorado (11-1)
Florida State (9-3)
Clemson (10-2)
South Florida (12-0)
Washington (10-2)
Washington State (10-2)
USC (10-2)
Louisville (10-2)
Kansas State (10-2)
GaTech (10-2)
VaTech (10-2)
Northwestern (10-2)
Tennessee (9-3)
Oklahoma (9-3)
LSU (9-3)

ELA · « **Reply #103 on:** August 23, 2017, 05:09:39 PM »

November 26 Poll
1. WISCONSIN (12-0)
2. Oklahoma State (12-0)
3. Stanford (11-1)
4. Alabama (11-1)
5. OHIO STATE (11-1)
6. PENN STATE (11-1)
7. Florida (11-1)
8. MICHIGAN (10-2)
9. Miami (11-1)
10. Colorado (11-1)
11. Auburn (10-2)
12. Clemson (10-2)
13. South Florida (12-0)
14. USC (10-2)
15. Washington (10-2)
16. Florida State (9-3)
17. Washington State (10-2)
18. Louisville (10-2)
19. Kansas State (10-2)
20. Georgia Tech (10-2)
21. Virginia Tech (10-2)
22. NORTHWESTERN (10-2)
23. Tennessee (9-3)
24. Oklahoma (9-3)
25. LSU (9-3)

ELA · « **Reply #104 on:** August 23, 2017, 05:11:11 PM »

What do you do if Okie State, Stanford, OSU, Miami and Florida win?

Is Alabama out? Florida? OSU? Stanford? Miami?

Two of those 5 have to be out

rolltidefan · « **Reply #105 on:** August 23, 2017, 05:53:53 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2017, 05:11:11 PM

What do you do if Okie State, Stanford, OSU, Miami and Florida win?

Is Alabama out? Florida? OSU? Stanford? Miami?

Two of those 5 have to be out

ok st would be in, no question. undefeared p5 conf champ is in.

uf is in. 12-1 sec champ is in, especially considering ooc schedule

osu is in, imo. #5 beating #1 gets them in.

and stanford is in, imo. i'm not sure what game they lost, but they won at least 3 of wash, @ wash st, @ usc, colo (ccg), all of which are 10-win or better reg season.

miami schedule doesn't match up, imo, althought they do play fsu (x2), gt, and vt.

bama is out. not a champ.

seems like an awful lot of 0 and 1-loss teams this late. 9 p5 going into conf champ week. 10 counting usf, which would be ranked higher imo. good team.

edit: went and checked. wouldn't be that far fetched, though it would be highest amount since '12 (as far back as i went), but only by 1.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #106 on:** August 23, 2017, 06:40:46 PM »

Quote from: ELA on August 23, 2017, 05:11:11 PM

What do you do if Okie State, Stanford, OSU, Miami and Florida win?

Is Alabama out? Florida? OSU? Stanford? Miami?

Two of those 5 have to be out

IMHO (per my post above):

Oklahoma State (undefeated P5 Champion)
Florida (12-1 and on a 12-game winning streak with an OOC win over FSU)
Stanford (12-1 P5 Champion with an OOC win over a decent but not great in this projection ND team)
Ohio State (12-1 P5 Champion with an OOC win over a good (#24 in your projection) OU team)

Florida/Stanford winner plays Ohio State in the NC (this isn't an Ohio State thing, I'd say the same if OkSU was matched up with either UF or Stan).

Out:

11-1 Alabama: Not a good year to be an 11-1 non-champion. There are too many undefeated and 12-1 Champs.
12-1 Miami: OOC is a joke: Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State, Toledo. That doesn't match up with UF, Ohio State, and Stanford (in that order).

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #107 on:** August 24, 2017, 10:21:43 AM »

This hasn't generated much discussion so I'll try it another way. Based on ELA's predictions here are my projected CFP teams (in order):

Wisconsin (if they beat Ohio State)
Oklahoma State (if they beat Kansas State)
Stanford (if they beat Colorado)
Florida (if they beat Auburn)
Ohio State (if they beat Wisconsin)
Miami (if they beat Florida State)
Colorado (if they beat Stanford)
Auburn (if they beat Florida)
Alabama

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #108 on:** August 24, 2017, 10:32:04 AM »

IMHO, those nine teams are the only realistic CFP contenders heading into the CG's. [/size]Theory behind my projections:

Wisconsin: If they win they are 13-0, B1G Champions and an obvious #1.
Oklahoma State: If they win they are 13-0, B12 Champions, and obviously in.
Stanford: If they win they are 12-1, P12 Champions, and obviously in.
Florida: If they win they are 12-1, SEC Champions, and obviously in (probably ahead of Stanford in ranking as well).
Ohio State: If they win it takes out Wisconsin which opens a spot for them. With a win they are 12-1, B1G Champions, and in.
Miami: If they win they still need one of OkSU, Florida, or Stanford to lose because they would be behind the B1G Champion and those three teams (if they all win).
Colorado: If they win it takes out Stanford which moves them up a spot. They still need one of OkSU, UF, or Miami to lose because they would be behind the B1G Champion and those three teams (if they all win).
Auburn: If they win it takes out Florida which moves them up a spot. They still need one of OkSU or Miami to lose because they would be behind the B1G Champion, the P12 Champion and those two teams (if they both win).
Alabama: Not playing on CCG Saturday hurts because they can't do anything to help their cause. They need OkSU and Miami to lose because they will be behind the B1G Champion, the SEC Champion, the P12 Champion, and both of those teams (if they both win).

ELA · « **Reply #109 on:** August 24, 2017, 10:57:30 AM »

WEEK 14
Friday, December 1
#3 Stanford d. #10 Colorado

Saturday, December 2
ESPN College Gameday, live from Indianapolis, IN
#5 OHIO STATE 31, #1 WISCONSIN 17

#2 Oklahoma State d. #19 Kansas State
#11 Auburn d. #7 Florida
#16 Florida State d. #9 Miami
#13 South Florida d. Tulsa

Appalachian State d. Louisiana
Georgia Southern d. Coastal Carolina
Idaho d. Georgia State
NM State d. South Alabama
Old Dominion d. Louisiana Tech
San Diego State d. Boise State
Toledo d. Ohio
Troy d. Arkansas State

WEEK 15
Saturday, December 9
Navy d. Army

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #110 on:** August 24, 2017, 11:10:33 AM »

Interesting playoff field:

Playoff:

13-0 Oklahoma State
12-1 Stanford
12-1 Ohio State
11-2 Auburn

Out:

10-3 ACC Champion Florida State (with losses to Bama, Florida, and Clemson)
11-1 Alabama
12-1 Wisconsin
11-1 Penn State

There is a strong argument for Alabama, Wisconsin, or Penn State over Auburn.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #111 on:** August 24, 2017, 11:30:13 AM »

UW doesn't have the schedule to argue, unless somehow BYU, USU and Lanie Kiffie show to be strong this season.

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Topic: ELA 2017 Game by Game Predictions

847badgerfan

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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ELA

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rolltidefan

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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847badgerfan

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