Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I think maybe I phrased the thread title wrong.  Perhaps it should have been "Can a team with a great defense and a mediocre-to-lousy offense still win a Championship?" 

What I was thinking of was teams like 1992 Bama and 2002 Ohio State that had great defenses and mediocre offenses and managed to win it all. 

In 1992 Bama had 5 games where they didn't score more than 27 points:

• 13 against LaTech but shut them out, won by 13. 
• 17 against Auburn but shut them out, won by 17. 
• 17 against USM but held them to 10, won by 7. 
• 17 against Tennessee but held them to 10, won by 7. 
• 25 against Vandy but held them to 8, won by 17, 

In 2002 Ohio State had 9 games where they didn't score more than 27 points:

• 10 against Purdue but held them to 6, won by 4. 
• 13 against Penn State but held them to 7, won by 6. 
• 14 against Michigan but held them to 9, won by 5. 
• 17 against Miami (in regulation) but held them to 17, won in 2OT. 
• 19 against Wisconsin but held them to 14, won by 5. 
• 23 against Cincy but held them to 19, won by 4. 
• 23 against Illinois but held them to 16, won by 7. 
• 25 against WSU (PacChamps) but held them to 7, won by 18. 
• 27 against Northwestern but held them to 16, won by 11. 

'92 Bama and '02 tOSU didn't need great (or even very good) offenses because their defenses were able to hold their opponents to ~13PPG.  Even against VERY good opponents:

• 02 tOSU held 10-3 Pac Champion WSU to 7
• 02 tOSU held 9-4 PSU to 7
• 02 tOSU held 10-3 M to 9
• 92 Bama held 9-3 Ole Miss to 10
• 92 Bama held 9-3 Tennessee to 10 in Knoxville
• 92 Bama held Miami to 13 in the Sugar Bowl
• 02 tOSU held Miami to 17 (regulation) in the FiestaBowl
• 92 Bama held 9-4 UF to 21 in the SECCG
• 02 tOSU held 9-5 TxTech to 21

Even against their very best opponents those Tide and Buckeye squads only needed to score in the low 20's (max) to win.  That doesn't take much from the offense.  Also consider that defenses this good typically generate a defensive sore or at least a short field or two for the offense so basically those offenses only needed about two TD's per game.  I just don't think it is possible to win an NC this way anymore because it seems to me that even the best defenses simply can't reliably keep today's offenses under ~27 points. 

Look at it this way:

• Ohio State scored 41 in a CFP Semi-Final, and
• They lost anyway, and
• That was the fewest points scored by any of the four CFP teams (51-TCU, 45-M, 42-UGA, 41-tOSU). 

Here are Ohio State's defensive stats for the eight years from 1968-1975:

To put that in perspective, the best defense in the game this year (Illinois) allowed 12.3 PPG.  Six of Ohio State's eight defenses from 1968-1975 did better than that.  Ohio State's worst defenses in that stretch were the 1968 defense which allowed 15 PPG and the 1972 defense which allowed 15.5.  Those both fall between this year's #6 (Iowa at 14.4) and this year's #7 (Marshall at 16.2). 

Ha, UGA allowed the fewest points in the CFP this year at 41.  Fewest.

That may be the most allowed in the CFP not counting OT, or close to it.  I know UGA - OU ran up and down the field in 2017.  That was a 45-45 tie.

If "random chance" were a significant factor, we should see years where Kansas wins, or Vandy wins, or Boston College wins.  It's really a rather limited universe of teams with more than a 0.1% chance preseason, and we have one of them this year.

Random chance when it comes to individual game outcomes.  We'd have a half dozen different NCs in the past 20 years if replay wasn't a thing.
People don't want to believe random chance (aka LUCK) wields such influence on these outcomes, but they do.  

I think folks here fully realize the randomness factor in competitive games.

see 1982 Penn State/SMU

well yeah, but...........

I think maybe I phrased the thread title wrong.  Perhaps it should have been "Can a team with a great defense and a mediocre-to-lousy offense still win a Championship?" 

What I was thinking of was teams like 1992 Bama and 2002 Ohio State that had great defenses and mediocre offenses and managed to win it all. 

not sure about 02 osu, but bama's 92 offense wasn't all that bad. was 27th nationally in scoring (3rd in sec), and 53rd in total offense (4th in sec). obviously the d both helped and "hurt" those stats. they helped by scoring some on their own, but also by providing shorter fields to drive. conversely, they "hurt" the o stats by... providing shorter fields to drive (fewer potential yards to gain).

that offense wasn't a world beater to be sure. but i don't remember it being terrible, and the stats seem to bear that out as well. in the same way i wouldn't say the 2011 offense was bad, i wouldn't say the 92 was either. stats to their peers are quite similar, actually. 11 was 20th nationally in scoring (2nd sec), and 31st in total o (4th sec). was a run based offense helped by a stout d, but was fairly efficient.

not sure about 02 osu, but bama's 92 offense wasn't all that bad. was 27th nationally in scoring (3rd in sec), and 53rd in total offense (4th in sec). obviously the d both helped and "hurt" those stats. they helped by scoring some on their own, but also by providing shorter fields to drive. conversely, they "hurt" the o stats by... providing shorter fields to drive (fewer potential yards to gain).

that offense wasn't a world beater to be sure. but i don't remember it being terrible, and the stats seem to bear that out as well. in the same way i wouldn't say the 2011 offense was bad, i wouldn't say the 92 was either. stats to their peers are quite similar, actually. 11 was 20th nationally in scoring (2nd sec), and 31st in total o (4th sec). was a run based offense helped by a stout d, but was fairly efficient.

1992 Bama offense was Derrick Lassic and 11 other guys who got to be on a team with Derrick Lassic.