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Topic: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #42 on: June 23, 2021, 01:17:28 PM »
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #43 on: June 23, 2021, 01:30:32 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:55:39 AM
Aside from your rival (and EMU), who do you hate today?


Before I chilled out when it came to sports  sometime in my mid-twenties (no more days of mourning after especially bitter losses), being a fan was just as much about who you hated as it was who you cheered for. Growing up a Gators fan, starting in Lee County FL as a youngster, I proudly hated on the Seminoles more than any team I've disliked, and boy was that easy given how good FSU was. Something like 15 years of Top 4 finishes. As a Gators fan there was nothing more disheartening than to blow through the SEC only to lose to FSU at season's end. As FSU started waning around the mid-2000s, it become less of a rush to root against them. And I haven't as actively rooted against the Seminoles since, even through their very good Jameis years. To pinpoint an exact game when the downswing became clear enough, I remember what would be a bad NC State team dropping FSU to 3-2 in 2006, which was an unheard of start to their season:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piWrjxy-kBM
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #44 on: June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:14:46 PM
does a 12-team playoff give them a better chance?
IMHO, no.  

Expanding the playoff oddly makes it less rather than more likely that a non-elite team will win it.  Pre-BCS it was possible for a team to play zero quality opponents, go undefeated, and get lucky with all the big boys losing to each other (See BYU NC).  Alternatively, it was also possible for a non-elite team from a big conference to get lucky and miss the elite teams in their conference or maybe catch one on a bad day then get a not-great bowl opponent and sneak into an NC.  Even in the BCS era these types of teams still might have been able to sneak past with just one win over a quality team.  

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #45 on: June 23, 2021, 05:31:21 PM »
1980 UGA is an example of a lucky NC team that wasn't that great.  They snuck by several opponents and caught ND on a bad day in the S Bowl.  They did have a good defense and a decent running back.  That team would not survive another credible opponent IMHO.

Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #46 on: June 23, 2021, 05:52:35 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 05:31:21 PM
Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
Best, of course, is extremely difficult to discern especially once we accept that the best team doesn't always win.  That said, one of the best teams is pretty much always going to win a four, six, eight, 12, or 16 team playoff.  

As I said:
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM
A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #47 on: June 23, 2021, 06:07:21 PM »
One of the best teams will usually win, but if you are omniscient, you can know which is the best, and how often they win is probably less than half.
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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #48 on: June 23, 2021, 06:19:08 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM
IMHO, no. 

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
yup, I was referring to now to 12-team.

Seems to make it much less likely to me
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ELA

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #49 on: June 23, 2021, 06:21:30 PM »
UM has kind of hit the sweet spot.  They were almost too bad for a little while.  Now they aren't good enough to win anything of meaning, but still good enough that I enjoy beating them.
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Mdot21

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #50 on: June 23, 2021, 11:01:15 PM »
cute thread lol. let's cut the shit. unless your name is Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State- your chance of winning the NC in 2021 is slim and none.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #51 on: June 24, 2021, 07:56:53 AM »
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.

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FearlessF

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #52 on: June 24, 2021, 09:41:22 AM »
OU or Iowa State

and the top team from the PAC

tough for the Horns with new coach and new QB, do the Okie St cowpokes bring a bunch back?


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« Last Edit: June 24, 2021, 08:46:15 PM by FearlessF »
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Mdot21

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #53 on: June 24, 2021, 10:07:13 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 24, 2021, 07:56:53 AM
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.
Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Kirby is basically Mark Richt. Oh and he's Saban's little bitch. 

Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State will be the MNC winner in 2021. It's like 99.9% given.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #54 on: June 24, 2021, 10:11:12 AM »
I think OU and UGA have more of a chance than 0.1%, just my opinion.

So do the odds makers.

College Football Odds 2021: Who Are The Early Favorites? (thelines.com)

And yes, I know the odds shift according to betting velocities.  The odds drop hard after 5.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2021, 10:16:13 AM by Cincydawg »
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
« Reply #55 on: June 24, 2021, 10:54:42 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on June 22, 2021, 07:58:03 PM
Sarkisian wasn't the choice of any of the boosters.


So where was the REVOLT? The threats for a Knoxvillian organized overthrow of the athletic department? I would've kept Tom Herman because, after losing Sam Ehlinger and a good chunk of the Longhorns front, and facing a more top heavier Big 12, this was likely going to be a down season anyway. Covid allowed UT to keep Herman anyway and fire him after the expected down year while taking their time needed to set themselves up with a more dependable hire. Instead, Herman is rushed out the door. Sark is rushed in...on what deserved grounds?!?!? Sark is a known, style over substance quantity at this point, underwhelming given the talent advantages he recruited into Washington and USC. Player development under Sark is null. Drank himself out of LA. And why why why (!) is it a SIX year deal!?!? UT had all the leverage to lowball Sark and still land him! Forget beating OU, TCU is a tough enough hill to climb.
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