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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2021, 06:24:22 PM

Title: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2021, 06:24:22 PM
Aside from the regulars, which outside do you think has a half way decent chance to win the NC?

Wisconsin USC  Texas  Florida ND  Eastern Michigan  Ole Miss  LSU  UM  PSU  ....

My list of regulars includes Bama OSU UGA OU A&M  I might be forgetting someone.

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 21, 2021, 06:40:33 PM
My list of regulars includes Bama OSU UGA OU A&M  I might be forgetting someone.
Georgia Tech has won a national title more recently
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 21, 2021, 06:44:34 PM
Georgia Tech has won a national title more recently
Almost everyone has won a title more recently, since the Aggies' last (and only) title was in 1939.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 21, 2021, 06:51:47 PM
notre dame could get lucky
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 21, 2021, 07:25:16 PM
Aside from the regulars, which outside do you think has a half way decent chance to win the NC?

Wisconsin USC  Texas  Florida ND  Eastern Michigan  Ole Miss  LSU  UM  PSU  ....



They way this list is laid out threw me.

Michigan is actually “Eastern Michigan” (No...)

And by UM you mean “The U” or presumably Michigan?

I have more faith in Miami. Not so much to win Nat’l title but to make a playoff push. The Canes have the balance of schedule and a potentially top 3 NFL Draft prospect at QB (D‘Eric King) to boot. I just don’t trust their coaching staff.

Michigan, on the other hand, won’t do better than their Revenge Tour of 2018, as much fun as that was in a B-Fest sort of way.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 21, 2021, 07:48:38 PM
The Revenge Tour was the best.  It was like a Vans Warped Tour, just headlined by the easiest people to hate
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 21, 2021, 08:18:11 PM
Miami is a decent guess
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 21, 2021, 08:22:42 PM
Almost everyone has won a title more recently, since the Aggies' last (and only) title was in 1939.
Yeah, but the fact that Georgia Tech won one is so hilarious to me.  That was the first year I followed college football, and I didn't appreciate how dumb it was at the time.

They beat a mediocre Nebraska team in the Citrus Bowl IIRC.  That was the best
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: MarqHusker on June 21, 2021, 09:12:08 PM
Scott Sisson kick to beat then #1 Virginia didn't do it for you?   That game overlapped Nebraska's 4th quarter implosion vs Colorado.  12-0 lead vanished in the rain slicked turf of Memorial Stadium as Colorado scored 4tds.   Probably the only season I felt an Osborne team look like a quitting bunch.   The effort at OU was just sorry and of course wore their all whites in that listless performance vs GT.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 21, 2021, 09:41:56 PM
Scott Sisson kick to beat then #1 Virginia didn't do it for you?  That game overlapped Nebraska's 4th quarter implosion vs Colorado.  12-0 lead vanished in the rain slicked turf of Memorial Stadium as Colorado scored 4tds.  Probably the only season I felt an Osborne team look like a quitting bunch.  The effort at OU was just sorry and of course wore their all whites in that listless performance vs GT.
That GT-Virginia game, is the first non Michigan game I recall watching
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: GopherRock on June 21, 2021, 09:53:45 PM
notre dame could get lucky
They need to come to a big bowl and not get blown out, like every one they've played in since 1990.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 22, 2021, 12:10:07 AM
If Oregon can figure out their quarterback situation, they are my pick
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Gigem on June 22, 2021, 09:29:09 AM
Georgia Tech has won a national title more recently
On that note there's no reason why it can't be A&M other than the fact that we really haven't been in that territory before, but then there's Clemson, LSU, and Florida who all have a similar history to A&M in regards to ancient history success in CFB.  

The real problem with A&M this year is that we will be breaking in a new QB and I just don't see the rest of the team being able to carry this particular weakness to the CFP.  

The right coach has done wonders for our program.  
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: rolltidefan on June 22, 2021, 10:03:34 AM
aTm is a decent pick for a non-regular to win it this year. the issue is, for come inexplicable reason, cincy decided to include aTm in the regulars despite the fact they haven't been in the cfp yet. nor were they in a bcs title games prior to that. they haven't even been to the seccg yet, though that's not necessarily a deal breaker for the cfp. aTm has been far from a regular title contender for quite some time. no knock intended, just truth.

not sure why uga is included in the regulars either tbh, but at least they've won seccg and made a cfp recently.

my regulars, and most people's i'd think, are bama, osu, and clemson. maybe ou.

but both aTm and uga are near the top of the challengers to those 'regulars' this season. imo at least.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 22, 2021, 10:17:44 AM
On that note there's no reason why it can't be A&M other than the fact that we really haven't been in that territory before, but then there's Clemson, LSU, and Florida who all have a similar history to A&M in regards to ancient history success in CFB. 

The real problem with A&M this year is that we will be breaking in a new QB and I just don't see the rest of the team being able to carry this particular weakness to the CFP. 

The right coach has done wonders for our program. 
I'm not saying Texas A&M can't, they would be in the group for me.  I was just questioning why they were included in the usual suspects to be excluded.  If you want to say someone outside the Bama, Clemson, OSU, OU group, and A&M is your pick, that's valid.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2021, 10:28:06 AM
By "regulars", I refer to teams with a high preseason ranking, top six or so, not teams that have won recently.

It refers simply to teams others have accorded a pretty good chance.  Anyone who picks say UGA to win it isn't stepping out very far.

I was looking for guesses on  teams not on the short list THIS year.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 22, 2021, 12:05:27 PM
The final four will include OSUs 1-3. 

The fourth team will be, ummm.... Wake Forest. 

No SEC. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 22, 2021, 12:39:06 PM
Iowa State, Texas, Oklahomo

one of those from the Big 12

Iowa state was close to upsetting the Sooners in the CCG last season

the Horns have the talent
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 22, 2021, 12:43:38 PM
Projecting college football's preseason AP Top 25 rankings (247sports.com) (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-AP-Poll-Nick-Saban-Alabama-Ohio-State-Clemson-Georgia-Kirby-Smart-166797707/#166797707_1)

One  guess, I don't think I agree that is what the top five will be in the AP, I think it will be more "traditional" minor changes.

1.  Alabama
2.  Oklahoma (I'd guess Clemson)
3.  UGA (I'd guess OU)
4.  Clemson (I'd guess OSU)
5.  OSU

6.  A&M
7.  Cincy(???)
8.  UNC (I think they take a small step back to maybe 9-3ish)
9.  ND
10.  Iowa State

11.  LSU
12.  Oregon
13.  UF
14. USC
15.  UW
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 22, 2021, 07:42:49 PM


the Horns have the talent

The Longhorns just about always field loads of talent. Talent or lack thereof has never held Texas back. It’s stupid boosters causing stupid coaching hires that’s the problem. Sarkisian is a HORRIBLE hire. $35M for six years...where are the brains in Austin?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2021, 07:58:03 PM
The Longhorns just about always field loads of talent. Talent or lack thereof has never held Texas back. It’s stupid boosters causing stupid coaching hires that’s the problem. Sarkisian is a HORRIBLE hire. $35M for six years...where are the brains in Austin?
Sarkisian wasn't the choice of any of the boosters.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 22, 2021, 08:55:48 PM
I forget that they hired the human beer pong table. 

Probably should have stuck with Herman if that was the best that they could do. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2021, 10:09:07 PM
I definitely won't argue with that.  He wouldn't have been my choice of hire either, but the athletic director never bothered to ask me.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 22, 2021, 10:50:47 PM
The Longhorns just about always field loads of talent. Talent or lack thereof has never held Texas back. It’s stupid boosters causing stupid coaching hires that’s the problem. Sarkisian is a HORRIBLE hire. $35M for six years...where are the brains in Austin?
Yeah, I'm not sure Herman was going to pan out, but man I think I'd rather have him than Sark.  Unless he burned some un-rebuildable bridges.

Unpopular opinion, but I really miss a great Texas team.  I said the same about Bama though...and look what I got
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 22, 2021, 11:11:59 PM
I get it.  It's more fun hating ND when they're good-- when beating them is actually meaningful.

I imagine it's not much fun for anyone beating a Texas team that can't even beat Maryland.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 22, 2021, 11:21:51 PM
I get it.  It's more fun hating ND when they're good-- when beating them is actually meaningful.

I imagine it's not much fun for anyone beating a Texas team that can't even beat Maryland.
Yeah, I disagree with the take that college football is better when the helmets are good.  But I like the helmets to cycle.  It's fun when they go down, even for a year or two, but then I'd prefer they get back up.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:01:08 AM
I like it when there is diversity, which means some BBs will be up and others down, and some Kansas States out there will be up.  (Eastern Michigan should always be bad though.)

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 09:04:05 AM
my strong dislike of the Buffaloes and the Canes has diminished

that's no fun
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:26:43 AM
I had to think a minute who the buffalos are, they have that bison cow, right?  named for a TV character?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 09:38:32 AM
you're thinking of the Cow named Ralphie
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 09:55:39 AM
I think Miami was the "most hated team" in the last say 25 years.  Is ND hated?  Some, but they aren't good enough (in my view).  Which other programs is really hated (aside from EMU)?  Alabama?  Yes, some no doubt, but it's I think a different kind of hatred, tinged with some respect.

Aside from your rival (and EMU), who do you hate today?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 10:03:21 AM
long before the Canes became the lawless CoCanes, Notre Dame was hated mostly for their winning and arrogance 

that's what usually qualifies a team to be strongly disliked, winning and arrogance go hand in hand

the other thing is simply cheating

I fondly remember the mid-90s when the Huskers were possibly the most "hated" team
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 10:05:19 AM
I don't really hate any programs today, but the Hawkeyes are getting on my bad side and Wolverines have the past history back in my youth when I rooted for the Buckeyes and Woody
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 23, 2021, 12:34:38 PM
I have a healthy sports-rivalry hatred for OU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, even still.

Among non-rivals, I still hate Miami with the white-hot intensity of a thousand burning suns.

And I sorta hate ND but not as much as I used to.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 12:43:41 PM
I still hate ND.

And frankly, it's not even ND that I hate. 




ND is a fine academic institution and I don't begrudge any of those who came upon their fandom honestly (attended the school or a close family member / parent attended the school). It's everyone else. Bunch of front-running turds who think that ND is "special" and should get special treatment when they haven't won an MNC in over 30 years. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 23, 2021, 12:44:34 PM
  • It's going to school in the state of Indiana where people who attended neither school grew up to be ND football / IU basketball reversible jacket fans.
I can one up you.

I have a co-worker whose husband went to Purdue...and is an ND football/IU basketball fan
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 12:45:26 PM
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 23, 2021, 12:56:41 PM
I can one up you.

I have a co-worker whose husband went to Purdue...and is an ND football/IU basketball fan
:41:

I actually knew a girl at Purdue who was an ND football fan, but didn't really get into basketball at all. She grew up in Indianapolis and her dad was a big ND football fan (but didn't attend ND). 

I don't know why she came to Purdue. She was an elementary education major. Seemed like IU would have been the perfect school for that, instead of hanging out with us nerds.

Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.
I think you'd have to find a team that was just outside the top 25 and had a bad previous year but still had a lot of talent on the roster. Probably in a weak conference / weak division, with a cakewalk to their CCG. Even then, they'd have to be 13-0 to have a chance which would probably take some lucky breaks, just to get to the CFP.

From there, you just have to hope that they have enough talent to compete and things fall their way. Beating two top teams isn't impossible, but it would be REALLY hard. 

I'd call it greater than 0.001%, but not by much. 

This would be one of those good times to look at the 20,000 simulated season type predictions and see how often it occurs. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 23, 2021, 12:59:59 PM
I have a friend who's an Irish-Catholic from Houston, who went to UT and in all ways acted as a UT fan would, but when Texas played Notre Dame in 1995 and we had a watch party at my house, he wore "neutral colors" and claimed he was divided.

I never invited that MFer to my house again.

No, not really.  But everyone at the party gave him relentless shite from that day forward.

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 01:11:05 PM
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.
Probably not.  Here are past AP champions and their preseason AP rankings:
So in the last 20 years I have:

Almost three-quarters were preseason top-5 and your guess that "maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?" is nearly dead on.  The preseason top-13 won 19 of the last 20 NC's with the next 12 winning once in 20 years (#22 Auburn in 2010).  

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:13:21 PM
he had it coming, sounds like a pot stirrin SOB
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 01:14:46 PM
Does any team outside the preseason top 25 have any chance to win the NC?  By "any", I mean something higher than 0.001%.

Probably only the top 12 or so have some realistic chance, maybe the next 13 have a chance of something like once in 20 years?  Would be interesting to calculated based on experience, but we won't have that.  Just making the top four would be possible, I think.


does a 12-team playoff give them a better chance?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 23, 2021, 01:17:28 PM
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/zKxIsCQkfALrdGwBf8mJxrm4VVy_tOxhdewitLk8drBb3NYw5YnbFcQncLOfFRv8JOkrgX1_gIat5K0dL9EHH4-uWNByT8yUf9fZTST6LuYXsX1R7t2RoAg)
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 23, 2021, 01:30:32 PM
Aside from your rival (and EMU), who do you hate today?


Before I chilled out when it came to sports  sometime in my mid-twenties (no more days of mourning after especially bitter losses), being a fan was just as much about who you hated as it was who you cheered for. Growing up a Gators fan, starting in Lee County FL as a youngster, I proudly hated on the Seminoles more than any team I've disliked, and boy was that easy given how good FSU was. Something like 15 years of Top 4 finishes. As a Gators fan there was nothing more disheartening than to blow through the SEC only to lose to FSU at season's end. As FSU started waning around the mid-2000s, it become less of a rush to root against them. And I haven't as actively rooted against the Seminoles since, even through their very good Jameis years. To pinpoint an exact game when the downswing became clear enough, I remember what would be a bad NC State team dropping FSU to 3-2 in 2006, which was an unheard of start to their season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piWrjxy-kBM
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 04:54:51 PM
does a 12-team playoff give them a better chance?
IMHO, no.  

Expanding the playoff oddly makes it less rather than more likely that a non-elite team will win it.  Pre-BCS it was possible for a team to play zero quality opponents, go undefeated, and get lucky with all the big boys losing to each other (See BYU NC).  Alternatively, it was also possible for a non-elite team from a big conference to get lucky and miss the elite teams in their conference or maybe catch one on a bad day then get a not-great bowl opponent and sneak into an NC.  Even in the BCS era these types of teams still might have been able to sneak past with just one win over a quality team.  

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back.  
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 05:31:21 PM
1980 UGA is an example of a lucky NC team that wasn't that great.  They snuck by several opponents and caught ND on a bad day in the S Bowl.  They did have a good defense and a decent running back.  That team would not survive another credible opponent IMHO.

Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 23, 2021, 05:52:35 PM
Another question is how often the "best team" wins the playoff, presume you know the actual best team.  Every team has a bad day, fluke fumbles, tipped INTs, etc.
Best, of course, is extremely difficult to discern especially once we accept that the best team doesn't always win.  That said, one of the best teams is pretty much always going to win a four, six, eight, 12, or 16 team playoff.  

As I said:
A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 23, 2021, 06:07:21 PM
One of the best teams will usually win, but if you are omniscient, you can know which is the best, and how often they win is probably less than half.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 23, 2021, 06:19:08 PM
IMHO, no. 

With the four-team playoff the winner has to win back-to-back games against high-end opponents.  Has that spread the NC's around?  Not at all.  Going to 12, IMHO will exacerbate that situation.  A non-elite team might catch Bama or Clemson or tOSU or LSU19 or whoever on a bad day and beat them but that doesn't mean that they have any realistic chance of beating Bama, Clemson, and tOSU back-to-back-to-back. 
yup, I was referring to now to 12-team.

Seems to make it much less likely to me
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: ELA on June 23, 2021, 06:21:30 PM
UM has kind of hit the sweet spot.  They were almost too bad for a little while.  Now they aren't good enough to win anything of meaning, but still good enough that I enjoy beating them.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Mdot21 on June 23, 2021, 11:01:15 PM
cute thread lol. let's cut the shit. unless your name is Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State- your chance of winning the NC in 2021 is slim and none.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2021, 07:56:53 AM
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2021, 09:41:22 AM
OU or Iowa State

and the top team from the PAC

tough for the Horns with new coach and new QB, do the Okie St cowpokes bring a bunch back?


(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p526x296/204439477_4185295178174526_2175390045052343235_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=IoOWMZyVLTcAX9rGeqF&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=811cbdceffdc10c095a80f752cf0e140&oe=60D92B2A)
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Mdot21 on June 24, 2021, 10:07:13 AM
I think Oklahoma and UGA have reasonable chances on winning the NC this year.
Oklahoma doesn't play defense and Kirby is basically Mark Richt. Oh and he's Saban's little bitch. 

Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State will be the MNC winner in 2021. It's like 99.9% given.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 24, 2021, 10:11:12 AM
I think OU and UGA have more of a chance than 0.1%, just my opinion.

So do the odds makers.

College Football Odds 2021: Who Are The Early Favorites? (thelines.com) (https://www.thelines.com/odds/college-football/)

And yes, I know the odds shift according to betting velocities.  The odds drop hard after 5.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 24, 2021, 10:54:42 AM
Sarkisian wasn't the choice of any of the boosters.


So where was the REVOLT? The threats for a Knoxvillian organized overthrow of the athletic department? I would've kept Tom Herman because, after losing Sam Ehlinger and a good chunk of the Longhorns front, and facing a more top heavier Big 12, this was likely going to be a down season anyway. Covid allowed UT to keep Herman anyway and fire him after the expected down year while taking their time needed to set themselves up with a more dependable hire. Instead, Herman is rushed out the door. Sark is rushed in...on what deserved grounds?!?!? Sark is a known, style over substance quantity at this point, underwhelming given the talent advantages he recruited into Washington and USC. Player development under Sark is null. Drank himself out of LA. And why why why (!) is it a SIX year deal!?!? UT had all the leverage to lowball Sark and still land him! Forget beating OU, TCU is a tough enough hill to climb.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 24, 2021, 11:02:00 AM

So where was the REVOLT? The threats for a Knoxvillian organized overthrow of the athletic department? I would've kept Tom Herman because, after losing Sam Ehlinger and a good chunk of the Longhorns front, and facing a more top heavier Big 12, this was likely going to be a down season anyway. Covid allowed UT to keep Herman anyway and fire him after the expected down year while taking their time needed to set themselves up with a more dependable hire. Instead, Herman is rushed out the door. Sark is rushed in...on what deserved grounds?!?!? Sark is a known, style over substance quantity at this point, underwhelming given the talent advantages he recruited into Washington and USC. Player development under Sark is null. Drank himself out of LA. And why why why (!) is it a SIX year deal!?!? UT had all the leverage to lowball Sark and still land him! Forget beating OU, TCU is a tough enough hill to climb.

Can't say I disagree with you on any of this.  The AD made the decisions in all cases.  He'll either be made or broken by these decisions.

As an aside, you seem really upset about the administration of a school that isn't your own. Most people are happy to see Texas continue foundering.  
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 24, 2021, 08:39:46 PM
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/p526x296/205438360_4185299504840760_141811039956541053_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=W_rpn8awLDcAX9ueJx8&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&tp=6&oh=1b47d990c29237ed26179ae0e47eca37&oe=60DAECC0)

Because the fans of ALL these programs expect to at least have a chance of winning the NC
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 07:52:38 AM
I dunno what the pressure chart means really.  Of course Smart is under pressure to win, but what if the team makes the playoff and loses a close one again?  He's not going to be fired unless somehow the team goes 6-6.    Every coach is under some pressure to 'win".  But I don't think those other fan groups realistically expect to win the NC this year, they HOPE they can contend for a spot and maybe win their conference.

The odds of winning an NC are below 50-50 for ANY program.  Let's say Bama Clem OSU all have odds of 1 in 4, that is plausible.  That leaves another 1 in 4 for "the field", which is mostly UGA and OU this season.

So maybe those two are at 1 in 8.  Not good odds, none of it.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:04:35 AM
247Sports likes to stir the pot and make a living
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 25, 2021, 10:14:57 AM
247Sports likes to stir the pot and make a living
I remember CFN "News" back in the day, they'd come out with, well, ridiculous rankings just to get clicks.

They all do it.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 25, 2021, 10:27:29 AM
of the list above, I'd say Harbaugh is under the most pressure
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 27, 2021, 11:54:10 AM
Can't say I disagree with you on any of this.  The AD made the decisions in all cases.  He'll either be made or broken by these decisions.

As an aside, you seem really upset about the administration of a school that isn't your own. Most people are happy to see Texas continue foundering. 

My frustration is more of a disbelief as to how Texas, a school with all the money and attention in the world of college football, can mishandle itself for so many years. By comparison, Oklahoma, a school with much less money and market value, has for 5 of the past 6 decades fielded the better football team. 

Hiring Sark is another half-hearted addition to a longstanding series that exhausted itself a while ago. Final Fantasy? Fast and Furious? 

The AD should be fired right after Lincoln Riley runs Texas out of the stadium.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 27, 2021, 12:03:45 PM
Texas has recruited well, better then their performance on the field.

Maybe something else is important.

You could do the Tennessee thing and hire and fire over and over looking for gold.  Somewhere.  Oh wait.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 27, 2021, 12:12:14 PM
My frustration is more of a disbelief as to how Texas, a school with all the money and attention in the world of college football, can mishandle itself for so many years. By comparison, Oklahoma, a school with much less money and market value, has for 5 of the past 6 decades fielded the better football team.

Hiring Sark is another half-hearted addition to a longstanding series that exhausted itself a while ago. Final Fantasy? Fast and Furious?

The AD should be fired right after Lincoln Riley runs Texas out of the stadium.

Again, I can't really disagree with any of that.  Just find it odd that you seem so passionate about it.  
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: utee94 on June 27, 2021, 12:18:40 PM
Texas has recruited well, better then their performance on the field.

Maybe something else is important.

You could do the Tennessee thing and hire and fire over and over looking for gold.  Somewhere.  Oh wait.

I mean, it's not unique to Tennessee.  Alabama went through a long string of firings before they landed on Saban.  Pretty much all the other helmets have done similarly.  OU went through a string of losers before they got to Stoops, although they've definitely done well with the smooth transition to Riley.  Good for them, bad for us.

I'd have kept Tom Herman if I knew the eventual replacement were going to be Sarkisian.  Unfortunately nobody asked me for my input on the coaching decisions.

But I also don't think Texas should just accept mediocre-to-poor coaching and think that's all we deserve.  Alabama didn't accept that.  OU didn't accept that.  Why should Texas?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2021, 12:41:32 PM
Picking the Power Five dark-horse College Football Playoff contenders entering 2021

SEC - LSU
BIG TEN - MICHIGAN
ACC - MIAMI
BIG 12 - IOWA STATE
PAC-12 - ARIZONA STATE

https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/College-Football-Playoff-dark-horse-contenders-Michigan-Miami-Iowa-State-LSU-Arizona-State-Power-Five-166953628/#166953628_1 (https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/College-Football-Playoff-dark-horse-contenders-Michigan-Miami-Iowa-State-LSU-Arizona-State-Power-Five-166953628/#166953628_1)

Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2021, 01:19:22 PM
I dunno what the pressure chart means really.  Of course Smart is under pressure to win, but what if the team makes the playoff and loses a close one again?  He's not going to be fired unless somehow the team goes 6-6.    Every coach is under some pressure to 'win".  
Strange for you to say this.  Forgot Richt already?
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: bayareabadger on June 27, 2021, 02:12:04 PM
My frustration is more of a disbelief as to how Texas, a school with all the money and attention in the world of college football, can mishandle itself for so many years. By comparison, Oklahoma, a school with much less money and market value, has for 5 of the past 6 decades fielded the better football team.

Hiring Sark is another half-hearted addition to a longstanding series that exhausted itself a while ago. Final Fantasy? Fast and Furious?

The AD should be fired right after Lincoln Riley runs Texas out of the stadium.
I think mishandling begets mishandling. It's a booster-led set up in some places. You fix that with the right coach and the right run of success.

They fired Herman because they were A. Mad at Tom Herman B. Thought they could get Urban. And when that didn't work, they were just stuck. The high-end coach crop this year is decidedly poor. But they can't not have a coach. 

Oklahoma is intersting because they got the right guy and he had a run of making either the right or good enough hires and then pivoting when they went south. He had Leach, Venables, Mangino, Kevin Wilson and Riley. Granted, they were in a good enough spot to get through some rough patches with various Stoops Bros on defense and Josh Heupel/Jay Norvell. 

Texas didn't even build a roster of possible successors. Shoot Auburn just hired a former Texas OC who they all but ran out. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: FearlessF on June 27, 2021, 06:43:10 PM
The SEC West is going to be quite the battle in 2021. Alabama, the defending College Football Playoff national champion, have someone on its tail: Texas A&M.

College football expert Phil Steele expects the Aggies to make a run for the division title and challenge the empire that is Alabama and Nick Saban. Texas A&M’s lone loss last season was to Alabama in the regular season.

Joining the Paul Finebaum Show, Steele outlined why Texas A&M is the biggest challenger to Alabama in 2021 in the SEC West.

“I’m going with the Aggies,” Steele said. “Going over the team with Jimbo Fisher, the biggest question is the offensive line. They only have one returning starter but he feels this year’s offensive line is more athletic and bigger, and has got more upside than last year’s offensive line even had. I also like Haynes King at quarterback. I think he’s going to do a fine job there. They’ve got one of the best running back units in college football, dynamic defense. They’ve got nine starters back there. They do have to play LSU on the road and I think LSU is the next big challenger in the west. I see a big bounceback year for the Tigers. But I’m going with A&M second and LSU third.”


https://247sports.com/Article/Texas-AM-biggest-threat-Alabama-SEC-West-Phil-Steele-college-football-prediction-preview-Jimbo-Fisher-Nick-Saban-166942163/?fbclid=IwAR2OYn6w-2zGX4rBgxriCgI5vMPWBMux_WSu_GfZQRYuBA07J3p5hNbgzto (https://247sports.com/Article/Texas-AM-biggest-threat-Alabama-SEC-West-Phil-Steele-college-football-prediction-preview-Jimbo-Fisher-Nick-Saban-166942163/?fbclid=IwAR2OYn6w-2zGX4rBgxriCgI5vMPWBMux_WSu_GfZQRYuBA07J3p5hNbgzto)
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 27, 2021, 08:58:33 PM
So Bama's biggest threat has a questionable OL and a new QB? 
That doesn't make Saban lick his lips or anything....
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: bayareabadger on June 27, 2021, 09:02:08 PM
The SEC West is going to be quite the battle in 2021. Alabama, the defending College Football Playoff national champion, have someone on its tail: Texas A&M.

College football expert Phil Steele expects the Aggies to make a run for the division title and challenge the empire that is Alabama and Nick Saban. Texas A&M’s lone loss last season was to Alabama in the regular season.

Joining the Paul Finebaum Show, Steele outlined why Texas A&M is the biggest challenger to Alabama in 2021 in the SEC West.

“I’m going with the Aggies,” Steele said. “Going over the team with Jimbo Fisher, the biggest question is the offensive line. They only have one returning starter but he feels this year’s offensive line is more athletic and bigger, and has got more upside than last year’s offensive line even had. I also like Haynes King at quarterback. I think he’s going to do a fine job there. They’ve got one of the best running back units in college football, dynamic defense. They’ve got nine starters back there. They do have to play LSU on the road and I think LSU is the next big challenger in the west. I see a big bounceback year for the Tigers. But I’m going with A&M second and LSU third.”


https://247sports.com/Article/Texas-AM-biggest-threat-Alabama-SEC-West-Phil-Steele-college-football-prediction-preview-Jimbo-Fisher-Nick-Saban-166942163/?fbclid=IwAR2OYn6w-2zGX4rBgxriCgI5vMPWBMux_WSu_GfZQRYuBA07J3p5hNbgzto (https://247sports.com/Article/Texas-AM-biggest-threat-Alabama-SEC-West-Phil-Steele-college-football-prediction-preview-Jimbo-Fisher-Nick-Saban-166942163/?fbclid=IwAR2OYn6w-2zGX4rBgxriCgI5vMPWBMux_WSu_GfZQRYuBA07J3p5hNbgzto)
There's a decent case they're the best contender.

That said, they need worlds better QB play than last year. They did a lot of being pretty good everywhere, while not being all that special anywhere. That'll get you far. 

Won't beat Bama. 
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: CatsbyAZ on June 28, 2021, 10:46:26 AM
 They’ve got one of the best running back units in college football, dynamic defense. They’ve got nine starters back there. They do have to play LSU on the road and I think LSU is the next big challenger in the west. I see a big bounceback year for the Tigers. But I’m going with A&M second and LSU third.”




No matter how much talent they field, LSU will secure the #3/#4 spot in the west, year in, year out. Orgeron doesn't have the coaching sense to do any more than what the talent of his roster can give him, much like Les Miles.
Title: Re: Chance of Winning the NC in 2021
Post by: Cincydawg on June 28, 2021, 11:22:31 AM
Didn't Coach O win the NC recently?