aTm is a decent pick for a non-regular to win it this year. the issue is, for come inexplicable reason, cincy decided to include aTm in the regulars despite the fact they haven't been in the cfp yet. nor were they in a bcs title games prior to that. they haven't even been to the seccg yet, though that's not necessarily a deal breaker for the cfp. aTm has been far from a regular title contender for quite some time. no knock intended, just truth.
not sure why uga is included in the regulars either tbh, but at least they've won seccg and made a cfp recently.
my regulars, and most people's i'd think, are bama, osu, and clemson. maybe ou.
but both aTm and uga are near the top of the challengers to those 'regulars' this season. imo at least.