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Topic: Big Ten Meetings

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2019, 01:20:45 PM »
I know this thread is about the meetings, but it also feels like the right home for any preseason conversation or ranking of all the teams. Without further ado, Bill Connelly (creater of S&P+, formerly of SBNation, now at ESPN) has published his Big Ten overviews. They are less stat- and heuristic-dense this year, but still good for review.

East

West

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2019, 01:47:05 PM »
I understand Frost's 2nd season at UCF was magical and I understand the returning starter at QB looks good, but...........

3-6 conference record last season, horrible defense, losing 1000 yard RB and 1000 yard WR

Frost's record with defense is shaky at best

did I mention horrible defense?

I wish I felt better about the team but I'd put the Huskers behind the Badgers, Wildcats, and Hawks until I see it with my own eyes.  and possibly Purdue
Yeah, but sometimes it just comes down to talent, and Nebraska is ranked 20th in a weighted 4-year recruiting ranking, first in the B1G west over Wisconsin at 28th. The rest of the B1G west is between 35th (Purdue) and 56th (Illinois).

FYI I have some reasons to quibble with these rankings. I think they're too biased towards the most recent class when there are too many positions that it's hard to contribute as a true frosh. That said, I think the rough sketch that it draws is clear; Nebraska, for their recent failings on the field, still recruits talent. As long as Frost utilizes that talent well, the rest of the division fears that we've just awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class

Cincydawg

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2019, 01:51:37 PM »
It will come down to the usual:

1.  Two or three key games won by 3-4-5 points by one team and lost by another.
2.  Injuries.

I don't think anyone can predict those things except by chance.

FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2019, 02:41:30 PM »
It will come down to the usual:

1.  Two or three key games won by 3-4-5 points by one team and lost by another.
2.  Injuries.

I don't think anyone can predict those things except by chance.
you're correct if Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of the past

otherwise it comes down to key injuries to the Badgers

when the Badgers were playing defense a couple years ago to go along with that running attack, there wasn't anything the rest of the West could do.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2019, 02:49:54 PM »
you're correct if Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of the past

otherwise it comes down to key injuries to the Badgers

when the Badgers were playing defense a couple years ago to go along with that running attack, there wasn't anything the rest of the West could do.
This is it.


If the two starting DE's can stay healthy (one could not last year, and the other missed the season), the D will be back to normal.

There is some depth, but it's young depth. Same goes for nose guard. Need the kid from Lincoln to stay healthy and play a ton.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

HawkFrenzy

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2019, 02:56:15 PM »
Yeah, but sometimes it just comes down to talent, and Nebraska is ranked 20th in a weighted 4-year recruiting ranking, first in the B1G west over Wisconsin at 28th. The rest of the B1G west is between 35th (Purdue) and 56th (Illinois).

FYI I have some reasons to quibble with these rankings. I think they're too biased towards the most recent class when there are too many positions that it's hard to contribute as a true frosh. That said, I think the rough sketch that it draws is clear; Nebraska, for their recent failings on the field, still recruits talent. As long as Frost utilizes that talent well, the rest of the division fears that we've just awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class

You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2019, 02:56:49 PM »
I still disagree. I know Wisconsin has run roughshod over the division for as long as I can remember, but that correlates to Nebraska having terrible coaching (Riley). 

There was only one season of crossover between Pelini and Wisconsin being in the same division, 2014, and that season got Pelini fired. Prior to that, Wisconsin was in the Why is Wisconsin Here division.

We just don't have enough sample size to say that it's Wisconsin's division to run away with as long as they don't have injuries. Nebraska has talent. We *think* they have coaching. Wisconsin has less talent, but we *know* they have coaching.

If Frost is as good as he's billed, Nebraska's talent level should be the edge.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2019, 03:03:37 PM »
You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs.
Of course. There are plenty of ways to quibble with recruiting rankings. We know Alabama is recruiting a lot better football players than Tulane, and no "helmet bump" can explain the difference.

Which is why I don't think it's meaningful to ascribe TOO MUCH weight to the recruiting rankings, but that doesn't mean you ascribe no weight. 

Nebraska's 4-year recruiting ranking is nearly 10 spots ahead of Wisconsin's. The past 4 years, their average recruiting rating according to 247 has been 1-2 points (out of 100) ahead of Wisconsin's. Their recruiting classes have ranked about 2 spots higher in the conference most of those years, and never behind. 

I'd say that even if you remove the "helmet bump", that Nebraska's talent level would be at WORST equal to Wisconsin, but I think there is a slight gap. 

Thus if you add competent coaching, there's no reason to assume it's Wisconsin's race to lose. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2019, 03:05:13 PM »
I dunno. It's tough to build a defense suitable for B1G competition. Winning the AAC is one thing. You can win there with offense only. In the B1G, defense is critical. Giving up 329 points (UCF's MNC season) isn't going to cut it. Gotta be 250 or less, in general.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

HawkFrenzy

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2019, 03:47:56 PM »
I really think the West is about as evenly matched as it has been in a while. I could see four or five teams with equal 6-3 or 5-4 conference records and it comes down to rule 78 of tie breakers where someone does a blind point to a map and whichever school is closest wins. It will come down to this:

Nebraska: Will be able to score points but needs to get out of the BIG12 mentality and have a defense that is stronger than a wet paper bag

Iowa: Arguable the best blend of talent in the division. Trips to Ann Arbor, Evanston, Camp Randal and Lincoln say winning the division outright probably won't happen. Just for good measure, a trip to Ames may make a difference in overall record. 

Wisconsin: Last year was a fluke, I don't see it happening again but oddly last year's record could still possibly tie for this years champ.

NU: Last year won't happen again here either but as I stated above they are capable of 5+ conference wins. They will probably lose out to overall record if they go 1-4 out of conference again.

Purdue: Lost a lot but I think Brohm is doing the right things. They will have some of those "doh" moments along with those that make you read the headlines several times to be sure you got it right (see OSU). Again, although I don't see them being dominant, 5-6 wins is not out of the question.

Minn: How does a team thump GT in a bowl game after they were crushed by a high school from Champaign? I think they were young so another year of experience gets them to learn how to be more consistent. 

Left out Illinois: They will not be in the conversation except by "....if it wasn't for the loss to Illinois."

FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2019, 04:07:38 PM »
If Frost is as good as he's billed, Nebraska's talent level should be the edge.
I agree with this

year two will tell us more about how good Frost is

year 3  he should be getting close
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HawkFrenzy

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2019, 04:14:24 PM »
Of course. There are plenty of ways to quibble with recruiting rankings. We know Alabama is recruiting a lot better football players than Tulane, and no "helmet bump" can explain the difference.

Which is why I don't think it's meaningful to ascribe TOO MUCH weight to the recruiting rankings, but that doesn't mean you ascribe no weight.

Nebraska's 4-year recruiting ranking is nearly 10 spots ahead of Wisconsin's. The past 4 years, their average recruiting rating according to 247 has been 1-2 points (out of 100) ahead of Wisconsin's. Their recruiting classes have ranked about 2 spots higher in the conference most of those years, and never behind.

I'd say that even if you remove the "helmet bump", that Nebraska's talent level would be at WORST equal to Wisconsin, but I think there is a slight gap.

Thus if you add competent coaching, there's no reason to assume it's Wisconsin's race to lose.
I am not fully disagreeing with you, I do agree that some of those rankings define the talent of the time. Maybe all do not live up to their hype but several do. Also, I do agree that historically and by average recruiting rankings do reflect overall records over a longer term. Personally I prefer to see the relook rankings Like this one but I think the better judgment of the talent returning is their production (even potential as the next one in). IMO, just because someone has a highly ranked recruiting ranking last year, doesn't necessarily translate to this year (which I think was one of your original points).

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2019, 04:41:48 PM »
I dunno. It's tough to build a defense suitable for B1G competition. Winning the AAC is one thing. You can win there with offense only. In the B1G, defense is critical. Giving up 329 points (UCF's MNC season) isn't going to cut it. Gotta be 250 or less, in general.
True, but sometimes the problem in smaller conferences is that you only have so many talented kids on the roster, so you can have a good offense and bad defense, or a bad offense and a good defense, if you try to put your best athletes on one side of the ball. But if you split them up, you end up with a bad offense and a bad defense, because half of a good offense is a bad offense, and half of a good defense is a bad defense.

He'll have more to work with across the board at Nebraska. He has to have the right coaching staff on that side of the ball, but that again is a management problem, not a talent problem.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2019, 04:48:24 PM »
I really think the West is about as evenly matched as it has been in a while. I could see four or five teams with equal 6-3 or 5-4 conference records and it comes down to rule 78 of tie breakers where someone does a blind point to a map and whichever school is closest wins. 
I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division. 

So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos. 

 

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