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Topic: Big Ten Meetings

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ELA

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2019, 05:40:20 PM »
BTN2Go going away, merging into the Fox Sports app

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2019, 06:14:42 PM »
You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs.
It's hard to say the first one is a slight against the recruiting services when they still correlate as tightly as they do with postseason awards and draft status.

The second is a better point. The best ways to fight recruiting ranking gravity is to (1) be able to make everyone redshirt and (2) have positive outlier coaching chops.


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2019, 10:07:58 PM »
What would have to happen in order for the Illini to have a chance? Obviously it doesn't look good on paper, but if things just go completely sideways for the other B1G West teams where they each lose a starting QB and/or RB, then could they maybe pull off a "tallest midget" Title like the Wildcats did last year? Or are they still just that far gone that it wouldn't even matter?
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Hawkinole

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2019, 01:08:49 AM »
Badgers at #3 in the West???

Defending West champs at #4???
not relevant at all

just very odd that writers that follow the Big Ten closely would vote this way

I don't think our group here would have the same opinion
Fearless, You have become fearful. Now you are biased against Nebraska. I am thinking Nebraska has the winning West ticket this year. Not sure about Michigan, but maybe. I think Michigan more likely than Ohio State, because of an experienced QB -- maybe.

Hawkinole

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2019, 01:13:05 AM »
I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.

So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
I read an interesting article on Hawkcentral.com a few weeks ago. They were discussing the fact Iowa plays Michigan and Penn St from the East. But seemed to tamp down the importance of those two games because . . . since formation of the Big Ten West, the West Division winner has gone 29-1 against West Division teams.

How's that for a stat? We have thought the past two or three years it is so evenly matched in the West -- well it hasn't been. It is just evenly handicapped preseason.

Hawkinole

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #33 on: July 19, 2019, 01:21:16 AM »


Left out Illinois: They will not be in the conversation except by "....if it wasn't for the loss to Illinois."
Illinois will have a good team this year, and win all their nonconference games, and possibly defeat Rutgers. The Big Ten is balanced, and they could eek out a few other wins. I think they are better this year than last. But they have Michigan State and Michigan on the schedule, and it does look like Lovie is NotLikely to get another year. He brought in a lot of talent this year, so if he manages a 6-6 record, which means 3 conference wins, he deserves another year.

Cincydawg

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #34 on: July 19, 2019, 08:45:10 AM »
It would be nice to see Illinois in a bowl game somewhere.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #35 on: July 19, 2019, 09:33:11 AM »
I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.

So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
I already pointed this out in the B1G-W Race thread, but Nebraska's schedule is highly favorable IF they are a contender in the West.  They host what are probably their four toughest opponents:  Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern. 

Comparing Wisconsin's and Nebraska's schedules:
Games that are the same:
  • Both host Iowa
  • Both host Northwestern
  • Both travel to Minnesota
  • Both travel to Illinois
Teams where one hosts and the other visits:
  • Wisconsin travels to Ohio State, Nebraska hosts Ohio State
  • Nebraska travels to Purdue, Wisconsin hosts Purdue
Teams that are NOT common opponents:
  • Wisconsin hosts Michigan
  • Wisconsin hosts Michigan State
  • Nebraska hosts Indiana
  • Nebraska travels to Maryland
The Head-to-Head:
  • Nebraska hosts Wisconsin

I see the above as a substantial advantage for the Cornhuskers if they are even remotely close to Wisconsin's equal. 

« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 09:42:02 AM by medinabuckeye1 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #36 on: July 19, 2019, 09:41:30 AM »
It would be nice to see Illinois in a bowl game somewhere.
I don't think their schedule is vary favorable for that to happen this year.  Even if they win all of the OOC games, they'll still need three conference wins.  Their conference home games are (in order of what I think are likeliest to least likely wins):
  • Rutgers
  • Northwestern
  • Nebraska
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
It would be a really tall order for the Illini to win three of those.  

Their conference road games (same order) are:
  • Minnesota
  • Michigan State
  • Purdue
  • Iowa

It could happen, but I doubt it.  


*MSU is the hardest team in the conference to project individual games for.  I expect their defense to be so good that they should be close even with the very best teams in the conference so they could win literally any game.  At the same time, I expect their offense to be so bad that they will be close even with the very worst teams in the conference so they could literally lose any game.  That combination of elite defense, horrible is typically +/- one or two freak plays from either winning or losing any given game because even the best teams are unlikely to run away from them but they are unlikely to run away from even the worst teams.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #37 on: July 19, 2019, 10:15:23 AM »
I lean to thinking "we" put to much emphasis on home versus away.  They might beat Rutgers, NW, and Purdue, but I do agree with your analysis.  I'd like to see them get some kind of season going.  A bowl game for UI is a good year.

The nine game conference slate hurts them.

FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #38 on: July 19, 2019, 10:29:46 AM »
Fearless, You have become fearful. Now you are biased against Nebraska. I am thinking Nebraska has the winning West ticket this year. Not sure about Michigan, but maybe. I think Michigan more likely than Ohio State, because of an experienced QB -- maybe.
I'm biased against the defense, especially the run defense.  Until the run defense improves dramatically it will be tough to win the West
The D-coordinator hasn't shown anything to give me confidence.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #39 on: July 19, 2019, 11:20:21 AM »
I already pointed this out in the B1G-W Race thread, but Nebraska's schedule is highly favorable IF they are a contender in the West.  They host what are probably their four toughest opponents:  Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern. 

Comparing Wisconsin's and Nebraska's schedules:
Games that are the same:
  • Both host Iowa
  • Both host Northwestern
  • Both travel to Minnesota
  • Both travel to Illinois
Teams where one hosts and the other visits:
  • Wisconsin travels to Ohio State, Nebraska hosts Ohio State
  • Nebraska travels to Purdue, Wisconsin hosts Purdue
Teams that are NOT common opponents:
  • Wisconsin hosts Michigan
  • Wisconsin hosts Michigan State
  • Nebraska hosts Indiana
  • Nebraska travels to Maryland
The Head-to-Head:
  • Nebraska hosts Wisconsin

I see the above as a substantial advantage for the Cornhuskers if they are even remotely close to Wisconsin's equal. 


UW's schedule also includes games against 5 teams coming off of bye weeks.
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HawkFrenzy

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #40 on: July 19, 2019, 12:14:04 PM »
I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.

So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
You're right, 5-4 is probably a stretch but I do think 6-3 takes the division. I do think even Illinois is capable of taking advantage of the stars aligning just right (ahem, Minnie?). I don't think they can do it regularly but they will change the race with an upset.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Big Ten Meetings
« Reply #41 on: July 19, 2019, 01:31:31 PM »
.

EAST: 1. Michigan, 222 points (20 first-place votes); 2. Ohio State, 214 (14); 3. Michigan State, 156; 4. Penn State, 154; 5. Indiana, 86.5; 6. Maryland, 82.5; 7. Rutgers, 37

WEST: 1. Nebraska, 198 (14 first-place votes); 2. Iowa, 194.5 (14); 3. Wisconsin, 172.5 (4); 4. Northwestern, 142.5 (1); 5. Purdue, 110.5; 6. Minnesota, 100 (1); 7. Illinois, 34

.

The Mediots have gotten it wrong 8 of the last 10 years, iirc.

But this is the first time since 2004 that they picked Michigan. I'd be ecstatic to get a 2004-type Big Ten landscape.

 

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