CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on July 17, 2019, 03:38:02 PM
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The Big Ten meetings in Chicago start tomorrow and go through Friday. Big Ten Network coverage of the pressers starts tomorrow at Noon, and 2:50 PM for the media day special. On Friday its 8:45 AM for the second half of the pressers and 11:15 AM for the remainder.
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EAST: 1. Michigan, 222 points (20 first-place votes); 2. Ohio State, 214 (14); 3. Michigan State, 156; 4. Penn State, 154; 5. Indiana, 86.5; 6. Maryland, 82.5; 7. Rutgers, 37
WEST: 1. Nebraska, 198 (14 first-place votes); 2. Iowa, 194.5 (14); 3. Wisconsin, 172.5 (4); 4. Northwestern, 142.5 (1); 5. Purdue, 110.5; 6. Minnesota, 100 (1); 7. Illinois, 34
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The Mediots have gotten it wrong 8 of the last 10 years, iirc.
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The SEC mediots are famously wrong as well of course. I presume these meetings are to gin up enthusiasm but don't really have any substantial impact on anything unless they discuss some minor rule changes.
The mediot polls each year seem to reflect the obvious and what nearly everyone else is saying.
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Badgers at #3 in the West???
Defending West champs at #4???
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I figure it's as relevant as if I posted that Minny would win the West and Maryland would win the East.
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not relevant at all
just very odd that writers that follow the Big Ten closely would vote this way
I don't think our group here would have the same opinion
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In both divisions, this is the most up in the air the conference has seemed in a decade or more. At least from the off season, that's the view.
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Badgers at #3 in the West???
Defending West champs at #4???
Wisconsin is coming off a 5-4 conference record and breaking in a new QB. Now, that new QB is probably no worse [and if I had to lay odds, maybe quite a bit better] than AH, but it's still a transition.
Northwestern is, of course, coming off an 8-1 conference record, but that's a 9-5 overall record. They lost by 2 TDs to Duke, and lost to Akron, both at home. They merely beat Purdue by 4, went to OT with Nebraska, and could only beat Rutgers by 3. And they are replacing Clayton Thorson, a QB that was responsible for much of their success in 2018. I think the media is expecting a reversion to the mean.
Nebraska is clearly on the upswing. So I'm not opposed to putting them at #1 here.
I'd probably switch Iowa and Wisconsin, with Iowa #3 and Wisconsin #2. I'm comfortable with Northwestern at #4, but honestly I think it's pretty likely that either Purdue or Minnesota finishes ahead of them. But until those teams prove it, I understand the media giving #4 to the "defending West champs".
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In both divisions, this is the most up in the air the conference has seemed in a decade or more. At least from the off season, that's the view.
This often means a lot of somewhat unexpected upsets and where A beats B who beats C who beats A.
In contrast, the SEC seems locked down, and the ACC almost certainly is except for one division.
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They want to mix it up, instead of picking OSU and Wisconsin every year.
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I understand Frost's 2nd season at UCF was magical and I understand the returning starter at QB looks good, but...........
3-6 conference record last season, horrible defense, losing 1000 yard RB and 1000 yard WR
Frost's record with defense is shaky at best
did I mention horrible defense?
I wish I felt better about the team but I'd put the Huskers behind the Badgers, Wildcats, and Hawks until I see it with my own eyes. and possibly Purdue
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I'd put Iowa or Minnie at #1 before UNL. Until I see the latter stop the run, that is.
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I tend to like teams with coaches in Year Two.
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There's no one in the West who could surprise me by winning the division ... except for Illinois. However that uncertainty may accentuate the probability that the West winner lose in the CCG. The will-be winner could be roughly as flawed as last year's.
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I know this thread is about the meetings, but it also feels like the right home for any preseason conversation or ranking of all the teams. Without further ado, Bill Connelly (creater of S&P+, formerly of SBNation, now at ESPN) has published his Big Ten overviews. They are less stat- and heuristic-dense this year, but still good for review.
East (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27204380/big-ten-east-preview-the-year-harbaugh-michigan)
West (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27204865/big-ten-west-preview-almost-anything-possible-season)
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I understand Frost's 2nd season at UCF was magical and I understand the returning starter at QB looks good, but...........
3-6 conference record last season, horrible defense, losing 1000 yard RB and 1000 yard WR
Frost's record with defense is shaky at best
did I mention horrible defense?
I wish I felt better about the team but I'd put the Huskers behind the Badgers, Wildcats, and Hawks until I see it with my own eyes. and possibly Purdue
Yeah, but sometimes it just comes down to talent, and Nebraska is ranked 20th in a weighted 4-year recruiting ranking, first in the B1G west over Wisconsin at 28th. The rest of the B1G west is between 35th (Purdue) and 56th (Illinois).
FYI I have some reasons to quibble with these rankings. I think they're too biased towards the most recent class when there are too many positions that it's hard to contribute as a true frosh. That said, I think the rough sketch that it draws is clear; Nebraska, for their recent failings on the field, still recruits talent. As long as Frost utilizes that talent well, the rest of the division fears that we've just awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class
(https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class)
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It will come down to the usual:
1. Two or three key games won by 3-4-5 points by one team and lost by another.
2. Injuries.
I don't think anyone can predict those things except by chance.
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It will come down to the usual:
1. Two or three key games won by 3-4-5 points by one team and lost by another.
2. Injuries.
I don't think anyone can predict those things except by chance.
you're correct if Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of the past
otherwise it comes down to key injuries to the Badgers
when the Badgers were playing defense a couple years ago to go along with that running attack, there wasn't anything the rest of the West could do.
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you're correct if Wisconsin is not the Wisconsin of the past
otherwise it comes down to key injuries to the Badgers
when the Badgers were playing defense a couple years ago to go along with that running attack, there wasn't anything the rest of the West could do.
This is it.
If the two starting DE's can stay healthy (one could not last year, and the other missed the season), the D will be back to normal.
There is some depth, but it's young depth. Same goes for nose guard. Need the kid from Lincoln to stay healthy and play a ton.
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Yeah, but sometimes it just comes down to talent, and Nebraska is ranked 20th in a weighted 4-year recruiting ranking, first in the B1G west over Wisconsin at 28th. The rest of the B1G west is between 35th (Purdue) and 56th (Illinois).
FYI I have some reasons to quibble with these rankings. I think they're too biased towards the most recent class when there are too many positions that it's hard to contribute as a true frosh. That said, I think the rough sketch that it draws is clear; Nebraska, for their recent failings on the field, still recruits talent. As long as Frost utilizes that talent well, the rest of the division fears that we've just awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a terrible resolve.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class
(https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/2/7/18215228/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2019-class)
You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs.
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I still disagree. I know Wisconsin has run roughshod over the division for as long as I can remember, but that correlates to Nebraska having terrible coaching (Riley).
There was only one season of crossover between Pelini and Wisconsin being in the same division, 2014, and that season got Pelini fired. Prior to that, Wisconsin was in the Why is Wisconsin Here division.
We just don't have enough sample size to say that it's Wisconsin's division to run away with as long as they don't have injuries. Nebraska has talent. We *think* they have coaching. Wisconsin has less talent, but we *know* they have coaching.
If Frost is as good as he's billed, Nebraska's talent level should be the edge.
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You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs.
Of course. There are plenty of ways to quibble with recruiting rankings. We know Alabama is recruiting a lot better football players than Tulane, and no "helmet bump" can explain the difference.
Which is why I don't think it's meaningful to ascribe TOO MUCH weight to the recruiting rankings, but that doesn't mean you ascribe no weight.
Nebraska's 4-year recruiting ranking is nearly 10 spots ahead of Wisconsin's. The past 4 years, their average recruiting rating according to 247 has been 1-2 points (out of 100) ahead of Wisconsin's. Their recruiting classes have ranked about 2 spots higher in the conference most of those years, and never behind.
I'd say that even if you remove the "helmet bump", that Nebraska's talent level would be at WORST equal to Wisconsin, but I think there is a slight gap.
Thus if you add competent coaching, there's no reason to assume it's Wisconsin's race to lose.
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I dunno. It's tough to build a defense suitable for B1G competition. Winning the AAC is one thing. You can win there with offense only. In the B1G, defense is critical. Giving up 329 points (UCF's MNC season) isn't going to cut it. Gotta be 250 or less, in general.
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I really think the West is about as evenly matched as it has been in a while. I could see four or five teams with equal 6-3 or 5-4 conference records and it comes down to rule 78 of tie breakers where someone does a blind point to a map and whichever school is closest wins. It will come down to this:
Nebraska: Will be able to score points but needs to get out of the BIG12 mentality and have a defense that is stronger than a wet paper bag
Iowa: Arguable the best blend of talent in the division. Trips to Ann Arbor, Evanston, Camp Randal and Lincoln say winning the division outright probably won't happen. Just for good measure, a trip to Ames may make a difference in overall record.
Wisconsin: Last year was a fluke, I don't see it happening again but oddly last year's record could still possibly tie for this years champ.
NU: Last year won't happen again here either but as I stated above they are capable of 5+ conference wins. They will probably lose out to overall record if they go 1-4 out of conference again.
Purdue: Lost a lot but I think Brohm is doing the right things. They will have some of those "doh" moments along with those that make you read the headlines several times to be sure you got it right (see OSU). Again, although I don't see them being dominant, 5-6 wins is not out of the question.
Minn: How does a team thump GT in a bowl game after they were crushed by a high school from Champaign? I think they were young so another year of experience gets them to learn how to be more consistent.
Left out Illinois: They will not be in the conversation except by "....if it wasn't for the loss to Illinois."
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If Frost is as good as he's billed, Nebraska's talent level should be the edge.
I agree with this
year two will tell us more about how good Frost is
year 3 he should be getting close
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Of course. There are plenty of ways to quibble with recruiting rankings. We know Alabama is recruiting a lot better football players than Tulane, and no "helmet bump" can explain the difference.
Which is why I don't think it's meaningful to ascribe TOO MUCH weight to the recruiting rankings, but that doesn't mean you ascribe no weight.
Nebraska's 4-year recruiting ranking is nearly 10 spots ahead of Wisconsin's. The past 4 years, their average recruiting rating according to 247 has been 1-2 points (out of 100) ahead of Wisconsin's. Their recruiting classes have ranked about 2 spots higher in the conference most of those years, and never behind.
I'd say that even if you remove the "helmet bump", that Nebraska's talent level would be at WORST equal to Wisconsin, but I think there is a slight gap.
Thus if you add competent coaching, there's no reason to assume it's Wisconsin's race to lose.
I am not fully disagreeing with you, I do agree that some of those rankings define the talent of the time. Maybe all do not live up to their hype but several do. Also, I do agree that historically and by average recruiting rankings do reflect overall records over a longer term. Personally I prefer to see the relook rankings Like this one (https://realwellnessliving.com/2019/05/29/revisiting-the-2016-class-recruits-who-had-the-biggest-impacts-118) but I think the better judgment of the talent returning is their production (even potential as the next one in). IMO, just because someone has a highly ranked recruiting ranking last year, doesn't necessarily translate to this year (which I think was one of your original points).
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I dunno. It's tough to build a defense suitable for B1G competition. Winning the AAC is one thing. You can win there with offense only. In the B1G, defense is critical. Giving up 329 points (UCF's MNC season) isn't going to cut it. Gotta be 250 or less, in general.
True, but sometimes the problem in smaller conferences is that you only have so many talented kids on the roster, so you can have a good offense and bad defense, or a bad offense and a good defense, if you try to put your best athletes on one side of the ball. But if you split them up, you end up with a bad offense and a bad defense, because half of a good offense is a bad offense, and half of a good defense is a bad defense.
He'll have more to work with across the board at Nebraska. He has to have the right coaching staff on that side of the ball, but that again is a management problem, not a talent problem.
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I really think the West is about as evenly matched as it has been in a while. I could see four or five teams with equal 6-3 or 5-4 conference records and it comes down to rule 78 of tie breakers where someone does a blind point to a map and whichever school is closest wins.
I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.
So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
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BTN2Go going away, merging into the Fox Sports app
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You can also quibble with the rankings by some of the normal complaints about recruiting rankings. I've seen many times an athlete is a 3* recruit, then a helmet school(s) come calling and suddenly they are a 4/5*. It also hurts developmental programs where they have a mid range ranked recruiting class but turn them in to NFL talent by the time they are SRs.
It's hard to say the first one is a slight against the recruiting services when they still correlate as tightly as they do with postseason awards and draft status.
The second is a better point. The best ways to fight recruiting ranking gravity is to (1) be able to make everyone redshirt and (2) have positive outlier coaching chops.
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What would have to happen in order for the Illini to have a chance? Obviously it doesn't look good on paper, but if things just go completely sideways for the other B1G West teams where they each lose a starting QB and/or RB, then could they maybe pull off a "tallest midget" Title like the Wildcats did last year? Or are they still just that far gone that it wouldn't even matter?
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Badgers at #3 in the West???
Defending West champs at #4???
not relevant at all
just very odd that writers that follow the Big Ten closely would vote this way
I don't think our group here would have the same opinion
Fearless, You have become fearful. Now you are biased against Nebraska. I am thinking Nebraska has the winning West ticket this year. Not sure about Michigan, but maybe. I think Michigan more likely than Ohio State, because of an experienced QB -- maybe.
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I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.
So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
I read an interesting article on Hawkcentral.com a few weeks ago. They were discussing the fact Iowa plays Michigan and Penn St from the East. But seemed to tamp down the importance of those two games because . . . since formation of the Big Ten West, the West Division winner has gone 29-1 against West Division teams.
How's that for a stat? We have thought the past two or three years it is so evenly matched in the West -- well it hasn't been. It is just evenly handicapped preseason.
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Left out Illinois: They will not be in the conversation except by "....if it wasn't for the loss to Illinois."
Illinois will have a good team this year, and win all their nonconference games, and possibly defeat Rutgers. The Big Ten is balanced, and they could eek out a few other wins. I think they are better this year than last. But they have Michigan State and Michigan on the schedule, and it does look like Lovie is NotLikely to get another year. He brought in a lot of talent this year, so if he manages a 6-6 record, which means 3 conference wins, he deserves another year.
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It would be nice to see Illinois in a bowl game somewhere.
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I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.
So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
I already pointed this out in the B1G-W Race thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-b1g-w-race/), but Nebraska's schedule is highly favorable IF they are a contender in the West. They host what are probably their four toughest opponents: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern.
Comparing Wisconsin's and Nebraska's schedules:
Games that are the same:
- Both host Iowa
- Both host Northwestern
- Both travel to Minnesota
- Both travel to Illinois
Teams where one hosts and the other visits:
- Wisconsin travels to Ohio State, Nebraska hosts Ohio State
- Nebraska travels to Purdue, Wisconsin hosts Purdue
Teams that are NOT common opponents:
- Wisconsin hosts Michigan
- Wisconsin hosts Michigan State
- Nebraska hosts Indiana
- Nebraska travels to Maryland
The Head-to-Head:
I see the above as a substantial advantage for the Cornhuskers if they are even remotely close to Wisconsin's equal.
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It would be nice to see Illinois in a bowl game somewhere.
I don't think their schedule is vary favorable for that to happen this year. Even if they win all of the OOC games, they'll still need three conference wins. Their conference home games are (in order of what I think are likeliest to least likely wins):
- Rutgers
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
It would be a really tall order for the Illini to win three of those.
Their conference road games (same order) are:
- Minnesota
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Iowa
It could happen, but I doubt it.
*MSU is the hardest team in the conference to project individual games for. I expect their defense to be so good that they should be close even with the very best teams in the conference so they could win literally any game. At the same time, I expect their offense to be so bad that they will be close even with the very worst teams in the conference so they could literally lose any game. That combination of elite defense, horrible is typically +/- one or two freak plays from either winning or losing any given game because even the best teams are unlikely to run away from them but they are unlikely to run away from even the worst teams.
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I lean to thinking "we" put to much emphasis on home versus away. They might beat Rutgers, NW, and Purdue, but I do agree with your analysis. I'd like to see them get some kind of season going. A bowl game for UI is a good year.
The nine game conference slate hurts them.
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Fearless, You have become fearful. Now you are biased against Nebraska. I am thinking Nebraska has the winning West ticket this year. Not sure about Michigan, but maybe. I think Michigan more likely than Ohio State, because of an experienced QB -- maybe.
I'm biased against the defense, especially the run defense. Until the run defense improves dramatically it will be tough to win the West
The D-coordinator hasn't shown anything to give me confidence.
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I already pointed this out in the B1G-W Race thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-b1g-w-race/), but Nebraska's schedule is highly favorable IF they are a contender in the West. They host what are probably their four toughest opponents: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern.
Comparing Wisconsin's and Nebraska's schedules:
Games that are the same:
- Both host Iowa
- Both host Northwestern
- Both travel to Minnesota
- Both travel to Illinois
Teams where one hosts and the other visits:
- Wisconsin travels to Ohio State, Nebraska hosts Ohio State
- Nebraska travels to Purdue, Wisconsin hosts Purdue
Teams that are NOT common opponents:
- Wisconsin hosts Michigan
- Wisconsin hosts Michigan State
- Nebraska hosts Indiana
- Nebraska travels to Maryland
The Head-to-Head:
I see the above as a substantial advantage for the Cornhuskers if they are even remotely close to Wisconsin's equal.
UW's schedule also includes games against 5 teams coming off of bye weeks.
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I think the key is that essentially six teams (everyone except Illinois) are reasonably capable of beating Wisconsin or Nebraska on any given Saturday, if things go right. But Wisconsin and Nebraska will be favored in every game against the rest of the division.
So I see your scenario as a definite possibility. With an upset here or there, you could have 3-4 teams all sitting at 6-3. I doubt 5-4 will do it though, that'd require too much chaos.
You're right, 5-4 is probably a stretch but I do think 6-3 takes the division. I do think even Illinois is capable of taking advantage of the stars aligning just right (ahem, Minnie?). I don't think they can do it regularly but they will change the race with an upset.
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EAST: 1. Michigan, 222 points (20 first-place votes); 2. Ohio State, 214 (14); 3. Michigan State, 156; 4. Penn State, 154; 5. Indiana, 86.5; 6. Maryland, 82.5; 7. Rutgers, 37
WEST: 1. Nebraska, 198 (14 first-place votes); 2. Iowa, 194.5 (14); 3. Wisconsin, 172.5 (4); 4. Northwestern, 142.5 (1); 5. Purdue, 110.5; 6. Minnesota, 100 (1); 7. Illinois, 34
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The Mediots have gotten it wrong 8 of the last 10 years, iirc.
But this is the first time since 2004 (https://btn.com/2019/07/17/big-ten-writers-predict-michigan-to-win-2019-big-ten-football-title/)that they picked Michigan. I'd be ecstatic to get a 2004-type Big Ten landscape.
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This would have been something. Maybe they could leave now, and take Rutgers with?
https://www.si.com/vault/1981/05/25/825661/the-big-tens-big-mess-harsh-penalties-following-a-bizarre-series-of-events-have-made-some-illini-clamor-to-get-out-of-the-conference
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And the A-Holes can't count either
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Player speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=pSysE4aq4QY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=pSysE4aq4QY)
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This is it.
If the two starting DE's can stay healthy (one could not last year, and the other missed the season), the D will be back to normal.
There is some depth, but it's young depth. Same goes for nose guard. Need the kid from Lincoln to stay healthy and play a ton.
I met a Badger fan in the Denver airport today. He gave essentially the same forecast that you did there, Badge. He added QB uncertainty, which you may have mentioned elsewhere.
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I don't worry about the QB, to be honest. They won 8 games last season, with terrible QB play. It can't get any worse than what it was.
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hah, that's what I keep thinkin about the run defense
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Do "we" really learn anything from these meetings? I hear the same tired questions (not that I could do any better) followed by coachspeak (unless Spurrier is in the house) and it's boring, to me, with avid media coverage. CFB is almost a year round event now with recruiting.
Five more weeks. I don't have that many more vintages in me.
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Illinois or Rutgers should hire Mike Leach