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People are probably tired of hearing about this in the BB thread and Holtmann was named by CBS as a possible candidate at ND so his voluntary departure is a legitimate possibility.  That said, I don't think that the status of tOSU's coach warrants its own thread on this board so I titled it more generally to discuss coaching changes more generally. 

Mike Brey is retiring at Notre Dame and one of the rumored candidates is Ohio State's Chris Holtmann.  According to CBS the Buckeyes are getting a great deal because they are "only" paying Holtmann roughly top-30 money and he is a top-15 coach.  It seems that @MaximumSam agrees but I can't figure out how a top-15 coach hasn't managed to have the Buckeyes as one of the last 16 teams standing in four attempts.  If I were in Gene Smith's shoes and Holtmann asked me to match a hypothetical offer from the Irish, I'd wish him good luck in South Bend. 

Holtmann's seasons:
2017-2018:

• 25-9 overall record
• 15-3 B1G record
• Tied for 2nd/3rd in B1G, one game out of first
• #5 seed in the NCAA, lost to Gonzaga in NCAA second round.  The Buckeyes really got screwed here because, as usual, the NCAA had too many Western sites so #5 tOSU had to give up a massive location advantage to Gonzaga playing this game less than 400 miles from their campus and roughly 2,000 miles from Columbus. 

This was Holtmann's first and by far best season in Columbus.  They started a little slow with four losses before the end of December but the losses were to Gonzaga and Butler (in Portland), Clemson (ACC/B1G Challenge in Columbus), and UNC (NOLA).  Then they went on a tear without the January swoon that would come to characterize most of Holtmann's later seasons.  The only real swoon, if you can even call it that, was losing back-to-back games in State College and Ann Arbor in mid-February.  Prior to that the Buckeyes were #1 in the B1G and #8 nationally at 13-1/22-5 but the losses dropped them behind MSU and allowed the Spartans to pick up an outright league title. 

The oddity of this season was that the Buckeyes were strangely powerless against Penn State for reasons that I still do not understand.  Seriously, the Nittany Lions were like Kryptonite to the Buckeyes that year:

• Penn State went 7-10 against B1G teams not named tOSU and they were an NIT team. 
• Penn State went 3-0 against the Buckeyes and looked like a #1 seed doing it with a three point win in Columbus, a 23 point blowout in State College, and a one point win in the B1G Tournament at MSG in NYC (I actually saw the loss in NYC in person which kinda screwed the trip because I had been planning to see the Buckeyes play two or three games not just one). 
• Ohio State was 15-1 against B1G teams not named PSU and were a #5 seed in the NCAA.  But for the THREE PSU losses they'd have been at least a #4 seed and played their early round games much closer to home. 
• Ohio State went 0-3 against the Nittany Lions and looked bad doing it. 

2018-2019:

• 20-15 overall record
• 8-12 B1G record
• Tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, eight games out of first
• #11 seed in the NCAA, upset #6 ISU in Tulsa then got blown out by #3 Houston. 

This was the first of the "Holtmann January" seasons.  The Buckeyes went 12-1 through the end of 2018 and although the schedule wasn't particularly grueling, there were a few decent wins and they were ranked #14 in the first poll in 2019.  They then went an abysmal 1-6 in January with the lone win coming against a bad Nebraska team.  The January swoon obviously dropped them out of contention for the B1G but they recovered somewhat and got up to 18-10/8-9 at the end of February but suffered a terrible end-of-season collapse with three-straight losses to end the regular season.  Two of them (at PU and vsUW) weren't "bad losses" but also included in there was an 18 point blowout loss in Evanston to the woefully bad Wildcats.  They split two BTT games and snuck into the Tournament with a #11 seed. 

2019-2020:

• 21-10 overall record
• 11-9 B1G record
• Tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G, three games out of first
• No B1G or NCAA Tournament due to COVID-19

The "January swoon" as I called it above should really be called a "January-ish swoon" because some (this one) started in December and others (2023's version) didn't get going until after the beginning of January.  Anyway, this season started out GREAT.  The Buckeyes started out 9-0 including taking down not one but two top-10 teams and got all the way up to #3 before a hiccup at Minnesota in mid-December.  They bounced back with a payday game win and then took out #6 Kentucky in Vegas to move all the way up to #2 in late December.  Then "Holtmann January" started early with a loss to WVU in Cleveland. 

That loss sucked.  My FiL was born in West (by god) Virginia, grew up there, and played football at WVU.  The tOSU/WVU Basketball game was in Cleveland so he, my MiL, my wife, our (then) nine month old son, and I went to the game.  My MiL even took a WVU and tOSU onesies and sewed them together so the nine month old could support both Grandpa's and Daddy's schools.  Ohio State was #2 and easily favored and . . . well like I said, Holtmann January started early on December 29. 

The skid ended up being six losses in seven games between 12/29/19 and 1/23/20 with the lone exception being a home win over a woeful Nebraska team that ended up finishing dead last in the league.  By the time it was over the Buckeyes were 12-7 overall, 2-6 in the league, unranked, and completely out of the league title race.  They recovered nicely with a 9-3 record the rest of the way to finish the regular season at 21-10/11-9.  They were scheduled to play #10 Purdue in the 7/10 game in the BTT but neither that nor the NCAA Tournament happened as they were both cancelled just after Indiana and Minnesota won the Wednesday games. 

2020-2021:

• 21-10 overall record
• 12-8 B1G record
• 5th in the B1G, 3.5 games out of first
• #2 seed in the NCAA tournament largely due to making it all the way to the B1GCG but lost embarrassingly to #15 Oral Roberts in the opening round. 

The Buckeyes actually went 6-2 in January.  Instead of a "Holtmann January", this team saved their collapse for the end of the regular season.  On February 18 they were ranked #4 and got a win in State College to improve to 18-4 overall and 12-4 in the league.  They were very much in the league title chase with four league games to go and . . . they lost all four.  Granted, three of the four (M, IA, and IL) were top-10 teams but so was Ohio State and those three games were at home.  They also lost to an uncharacteristically mediocre MSU team.  Their run to the B1GCG was odd in that they won three games by a combined total of a five point differential at the end of regulation (Minnesota by 4, PU in OT, M by 1).  Then they lost the CG in OT to IL so at least you have to concede that they were exciting! 

2021-2022:

• 20-12 overall record
• 12-8 B1G record
• Tied for 4th/5th/6th in the league, three games out of first. 
• #7 seed in the NCAA tournament, beat #10 Loyola-Chicago and lost to #2 Villanova. 

They went 5-3 in January so most people say there was no "Holtmann January" but those people aren't looking close enough.  They had a December game cancelled and subbed in IUPUI in January.  That IUPUI team was beyond awful.  They finished the season 3-26 overall and 1-16 in the Horizon League so the win should hardly count.  They also beat bad PSU, NU, and MN teams.  Then there is Nebraska:  Nebraska was a bad team that year (finished tied for last in the league) and the Buckeyes needed OT to beat them once and postponed another game against Nebraska that ended up being a loss later in the season.  On the surface they went 5-3 but that was still a BAD January.  Heading into it they were 8-2/2-0 and #13 nationally.  At the end of it they were 13-5/6-3 and #16.  Then they suffered yet another terrible end-of-season collapse.  The Buckeyes last four regular season opponents all finished behind them in the final standings and yet the Buckeyes lost three of those four games then got bounced from the BTT in their opener by a bad PSU team. 


At this point @MaximumSam and I have had this discussion for a couple years so for the uninitiated I'll summarize quickly:
Max appreciates that Holtmann's teams have been consistently good.  Like me, he'd like to see improvement and at least some occasional greatness but, he remembers the years in the wilderness when Ohio State had terrible teams for a LONG time.  He doesn't want to go back there and fears that if we jettison Holtmann, we will.  I think that is a fair summarization of Max's view but if he would like to disagree or clarify he can. 

My view is that below a certain level I just don't really care how relatively good or bad the team is.  That "certain level" for me is competing for B1G Championships* and making it beyond the first weekend of the NCAA.  I don't mean that tOSU should require that EVERY year, but taking the long view, since the expansion to a 64 team tournament in 1985 the Buckeyes have won the league once every 5.43 years and advanced to at least the S16 once every 4.63 tournaments.  Holtmann isn't keeping up with those marks so it is time to move on. 

I understand that there is a BIG difference between where Ohio State has been over the six years of Holtmann's tenure and where a program like Minnesota or Nebraska is right now but I simply don't care.  To me it is a dichotomy.  The program either IS competing for league titles and getting out of the first weekend of the NCAA or they ARE NOT and right now, Ohio State IS NOT.  Viewed in this way, as I view it, our program is failing and can't get worse so there is no risk.  I do, however, understand where Max is coming from.  I too am old enough to remember Ohio State's years in the wilderness and I'd rather not go back there but from my perspective where we are now is no better.  If you aren't competing for league titles and making it to at least the S16 then you are nationally irrelevant.  If Ohio State is going to be nationally irrelevant then the difference between a 9-11 team that loses in the first weekend and a 2-18 team is negligible to me. 

*I've tried to always carefully phrase this as "competing for B1G Championships" rather than coming out and saying "winning B1G Championships" for a reason.  Competing for them is controllable within the program itself.  In theory winning them is too but in practice whether or not you win has a lot to do with how good other teams in the league are.  Recent B1G Champions:

• 15-5 split between IL and UW in 2022
• 14-3 Michigan outright in 2021 (they missed three games so this is a bit of an outlier.  On a full schedule they'd have finished between 14-6 and 17-3 with, IMHO, 16-4 most likely). 
• 14-6 split between UW, UMD, and MSU in 2020
• 16-4 split between MSU and PU in 2019
• 16-2 MSU outright in 2018
• 14-4 Purdue outright in 2017
• 15-3 Indiana outright in 2016
• 16-2 Wisconsin outright in 2015
• 15-3 Michigan outright in 2014
• 14-4 Indiana outright in 2013

In the 10 seasons since Ohio State last won a share of the league title (at 13-5 in 2012) the league champion has had:

• 2 losses twice (2018, 2015)
• 3 losses thrice (2021, 2016, 2014)
• 4 losses thrice (2019, 2017, 2013)
• 5 losses once (2022)
• 6 losses once (2020)

Sometimes a team gets lucky and wins a title despite having five or six losses (IL and UW last year, UW, UMD, and MSU in 2020).  Other seasons you might go 16-4 or 17-3 and NOT win a title because you find yourself behind a team with only two or three losses.  If I were an AD I wouldn't give a coach too much credit for winning a league title at 14-6 nor would I hold it against them if they went 17-3 and DID NOT win a league title.  It isn't to their credit that the league had no really good teams so they backed into a league title with five or six losses but it also isn't to their blame that the league had a REALLY elite team so they did not win a league title despite having a 16-4 or 17-3 record that usually would win one. 

Ohio State should hire Mike Bray. 

Done and done. 

First off, an excellent, spirited rundown of the Holtmann era; very informative. Is the speculation of Holtmann to Notre Dame realistic? That just seems off. The Fighting Irish would be willingly hiring a rather underwhelming quantity at this point. Holtmann’s story arch is that of the upstanding Midwestern son hitting his ceiling several years ago, and we, in our Midwestern propriety, aren’t at the point of pointing this out and moving on.

With the number of Big Ten basketball powers seemingly coasting this year, you’d think this would be the time Holtmann would most need to break the frustrating plateau his tenure with the Buckeyes has become. Especially with a prime recruiting class last year. Ranked 8 last year – with Sensabaugh as the outstanding contributor. Ranked 6 this year (247). Maybe that’s the hope Buckeyes are waiting for – the recent recruiting bumper crop to kick in?

It's odd that Holtmann and Matta both outperformed their predecessor with their predecessor's players in year one, but in both cases they benefited from the return of a star big that had missed most of the previous season with an injury, in Kietta Bates Diop and Terrence Dials, respectively. 

The kiss of death:
Prior to the Wisconsin loss, a Columbus Dispatch reporter asked Ohio State Athletic Director Gene Smith if he "believes in head coach Chris Holtmann and the direction the program is headed under Holtmann's leadership"

Smith gave a supportive answer but AD's necessarily always do in this situation, he said:
“I’m confident in what Chris is doing,” Smith told The Dispatch. “Chris is our coach of the future. He’s doing an outstanding job."

The answer is textbook AD-speak. AD's can't come out and say that a coach is on the chopping block so they have to give answers like that. 

You can learn everything you need to know about the situation from the fact that the question was asked in the first place.

More history:

Josh Poloha
@JorshP
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Ohio State – who has now lost eight of its last nine games – falls to 11-11 on the season. The last time the Buckeyes were .500 as late as February was in 2004. They started the season 8-4 and finished with a 14-16 record in 2003-04.

Jim O'Brien was fired following that season.






It is over, time to talk about potential replacements.

I think it is extremely unlikely that Holtmann would be fired. They just signed him to an extension, and it would be one thing if there were expectations for this season, but they have six freshmen and three transfers, and returned one starter from last season. Taking a job somewhere else is always a possibility, Tubby Smith style, but I haven't heard any real info about that.

As is becoming blatantly obvious, the extension last year was one of Gene Smith's biggest screwups. Why extend a guy who has never accomplished anything worth noting?

We can hope he'll get picked up by another school and the ND rumors give us some hope but if ND hired him right now their fan base would mutiny so that becomes more unlikely with each accumulating loss.

The team this year is a catastrophe and youth/transfers are NO EXCUSE in modern CBB and in year six of the coach's tenure.

The whole of this team is less than the sum of the parts. That is on the HC.

He should have been canned after last season but keeping him to see how this season played out wasn't totally insane. When the Buckeyes lost to Minnesota, Gene Smith should have immediately called a press conference and relieved him of his duties in order to give Diebler a sink-or-swim opportunity to finish out the season.

Now this season is lost as well and keeping the current coach will only guarantee that next season will fit the same mediocre-at-best pattern.

Let me know if this CBS Sports assessment of Holtmann sounds right:

"The Buckeyes arguably have the best coach of the three schools listed in Chris Holtmann, who has masterminded three top-15 offenses since taking over the program in 2017. He is also among the most criminally underrated as a tactician from a pure Xs and Os standpoint. Developing talent is where he really thrives and why Ohio State shouldn't be discounted."

Isn't the big complaint about Holtmann that he doesn't develop his players??? Or do much with the more talented ones?

"He turned Malaki Branham, a four-star recruit, into a top-20 draft pick in one year. He's likely about to do the same with Brice Sensabaugh, who was barely ranked inside the top-100. Big man E.J. Liddell developed into an NBA player under Holtmann as well."

IMO, landing Bronny James for the sheer name value of it will stabilize Holtmann's job for another year.



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