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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2019, 04:05:42 PM »
1. Minnesota
2. Ohio State
At the end of the season you may be right but as of right now there is simply no justification for this.  They have two common opponents:
  • Nebraska:  Ohio State won by 41 on the road, Minnesota won by 27 at home.  
  • Maryland:  Ohio State won by 59 at home, Minnesota won by 31 at home.  

Ohio State has been flat out dominant every single week.  Minnesota scraped by against mediocre-to-bad teams for the first couple months then the last five games they have been good, but still not as dominant as Ohio State (see Nebraska and Maryland comparisons).  

Common opponents yet to be played:
  • Penn State:  Minnesota won at home by 5, Ohio State plays them at home on 11/23
  • Wisconsin:  Ohio State won at home by 31, Minnesota plays them at home on 11/30
  • Northwestern:  Ohio State won on the road by 49, Minnesota plays them on the road on 11/23
  • Rutgers:  Minnesota beat them by 35 on the road, Ohio State plays them on the road this weekend.  

Before the CG we will have six common opponents to use when comparing Ohio State and Minnesota.  The Buckeyes are already up 2-0.  We'll pick up one more this weekend (Rutgers).  I think Ohio State will win by more than 35 unless the weather is just awful.  Next weekend we'll pick up two more when Ohio State plays Penn State and Minnesota plays Northwestern.  If I had to guess right now, I would guess that Ohio State will beat PSU by more than 5 and Minnesota will not beat Northwestern by 50+.  Then on November 30 we'll pick up our sixth and final common opponent and I doubt that Minnesota will beat Wisconsin by more than 31.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2019, 04:09:32 PM »
Home/Road hasn't mattered much, historically in the Badger/Hawkeye series.
Record of Wisconsin (vs Iowa), 1869-2018
Site First Meeting Last Meeting GamesWin % WinsLossesTies Average Score
Any 18942018920.5224743217.9916.86
Home 18942017470.5852719120.4315.06
Away 19072018450.4562024115.4418.73
Neutral  
I'm not reading that the same way you are.  Against Iowa, Wisconsin is:
  • .585, 27-19-1 in Madison with an average score of Wisconsin 20, Iowa 15
  • .456, 20-24-1 in Iowa City with an average score of Iowa 19, Wisconsin 15
That feels like a decent sized gap to me.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2019, 04:15:48 PM »
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
I read this as:
  • 7 Indiana
  • 8 Illinois
  • 9 Michigan State
  • 10 Purdue


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2019, 04:29:22 PM »

  • Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - I really didn't expect Ohio State to match PSU's 59 point win over Maryland, but they did.    
  • Penn State - 2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - Yes, I know that Penn State lost to Minnesota but, at least for now, they still have twice as many quality wins as the Gophers.  FWIW, I think #2 through #6 are all thisclose together.  
  • Wisconsin - 3,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - Now they just need Iowa to knock off Minnesota and they'll have a chance to get to the CG.  
  • Michigan - 4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - 0-2 against teams above this, 4-0 against teams below this.  
  • Minnesota - 6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated with Iowa on the road this weekend.  If they win in Iowa City they'll have the best resume of the 2-6 group, right now they don't.
  • Iowa - 5,5,5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - Iowa is 0-3 in games against teams above this, but the three losses were by a combined 14 points and two of the three games were on the road.  
  • Illinois - 9,9,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - Does anyone think they would lose to Nebraska if the two played again?     
  • Michigan State - 7,7,7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - 0-4 against teams above this, 2-0 against teams below this.    
  • Indiana - 8,8,10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - Looking good but I dropped them behind Illinois because the Illini now have two wins (MSU, UW) better than any of the Hoosiers' wins.  
  • Purdue - 10,11,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl plans on life support.  
  • Nebraska - 11,10,11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Ouch!  
  • Northwestern - 12,12,8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - Well at least they scored.
  • Maryland - 13,13,12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?    
  • Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.  


The Loon

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2019, 05:51:32 PM »
1) OSU - demolishes every opponent 
2) Wisconsin - no shame in losing to OSU or Illinois 
3) Michigan - PSU D had nothing to do with that dropped pass in the end zone
4) PSU - not better than the teams above them
5) Iowa - better than the teams below them
6) Illinois - would beat every team below them, on a neutral field 
7) Indiana -  only losses to OSU & MSU (before their confidence crushing stretch)
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season
9) MSU - tough break playing 3 top 10 teams in a row, maybe should be higher?
10) Purdue - too many injuries
11) Nebraska - too many injuries
12) Maryland - too many injuries
13) NW - hopefully they win this weekend
14) Rutgers - let's hope they get better

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2019, 05:54:03 PM »
At the end of the season you may be right but as of right now there is simply no justification for this.  They have two common opponents:
  • Nebraska:  Ohio State won by 41 on the road, Minnesota won by 27 at home. 
  • Maryland:  Ohio State won by 59 at home, Minnesota won by 31 at home. 

Ohio State has been flat out dominant every single week.  Minnesota scraped by against mediocre-to-bad teams for the first couple months then the last five games they have been good, but still not as dominant as Ohio State (see Nebraska and Maryland comparisons). 

Common opponents yet to be played:
  • Penn State:  Minnesota won at home by 5, Ohio State plays them at home on 11/23
  • Wisconsin:  Ohio State won at home by 31, Minnesota plays them at home on 11/30
  • Northwestern:  Ohio State won on the road by 49, Minnesota plays them on the road on 11/23
  • Rutgers:  Minnesota beat them by 35 on the road, Ohio State plays them on the road this weekend. 

Before the CG we will have six common opponents to use when comparing Ohio State and Minnesota.  The Buckeyes are already up 2-0.  We'll pick up one more this weekend (Rutgers).  I think Ohio State will win by more than 35 unless the weather is just awful.  Next weekend we'll pick up two more when Ohio State plays Penn State and Minnesota plays Northwestern.  If I had to guess right now, I would guess that Ohio State will beat PSU by more than 5 and Minnesota will not beat Northwestern by 50+.  Then on November 30 we'll pick up our sixth and final common opponent and I doubt that Minnesota will beat Wisconsin by more than 31. 

Honestly....it's more of just being a dink.  Now the Gophers have the best win at this point in the season....where everyone was busting on them for the longest time about their weak schedule.  Hell....there's still posters that have them as low as fifth.  Want to talk about justification?

Get by Penn State and we'll talk (wink).

And people need to get over those first few weeks already.  They are a completely different team than the one from September.

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2019, 05:57:58 PM »


5. Minnesota - 6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated with Iowa on the road this weekend.  If they win in Iowa City they'll have the best resume of the 2-6 group, right now they don't.

😏

SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2019, 08:08:15 PM »
1) Yup, turnovers are huge. And I would argue that a missed field goal basically equals a lost fumble.

2) I do realize that Wisconsin has exactly two quality wins, which is exactly two times as many as Minnesota. Wisconsin also has one bad loss (sorry, Illinois may be much better than expected, but that's still a bad loss for Wisconsin), and one loss to a team unlike any that Minnesota has played. Based on the current results, through week 9, I see Wisconsin as #3, and Minnesota as #5, part of a group of #2-5 that are very close. Minnesota beats Iowa next week and it likely moves up. How much is hard to say, but 10-0, with two quality wins, is better than 8-2, with two quality wins and a bad loss. You can remember that I said that.

3) I am always amused by the "they are much better now" argument. I think that's uncommon. Somewhat better, perhaps. More likely, they have much better results, but that's not the same as being much better. Results are often a function of match-ups. 

That said, Minnesota may be an example of a team that has dramatically improved. Certainly, Minnesota's first three games were not inspiring. Since then, it has ticked off several convincing wins against weak teams, followed by a very impressive win against Penn State. Minnesota couldn't be viewed as especially good early in the season, first, because they didn't play anyone of note (and have no history of being especially good, including with basically these same players), and second because their wins against poor teams were not impressive. Their season, since then, has dramatically improved. BUT, they still had those first handful of poor-looking games. The win against PSU doesn't erase them anymore than Wisconsin's wins against Michigan and Iowa erase the loss to Illinois.


RestingB!tchFace

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2019, 10:03:19 PM »
1) Yup, turnovers are huge. And I would argue that a missed field goal basically equals a lost fumble.

2) I do realize that Wisconsin has exactly two quality wins, which is exactly two times as many as Minnesota. Wisconsin also has one bad loss (sorry, Illinois may be much better than expected, but that's still a bad loss for Wisconsin), and one loss to a team unlike any that Minnesota has played. Based on the current results, through week 9, I see Wisconsin as #3, and Minnesota as #5, part of a group of #2-5 that are very close. Minnesota beats Iowa next week and it likely moves up. How much is hard to say, but 10-0, with two quality wins, is better than 8-2, with two quality wins and a bad loss. You can remember that I said that.

3) I am always amused by the "they are much better now" argument. I think that's uncommon. Somewhat better, perhaps. More likely, they have much better results, but that's not the same as being much better. Results are often a function of match-ups.

That said, Minnesota may be an example of a team that has dramatically improved. Certainly, Minnesota's first three games were not inspiring. Since then, it has ticked off several convincing wins against weak teams, followed by a very impressive win against Penn State. Minnesota couldn't be viewed as especially good early in the season, first, because they didn't play anyone of note (and have no history of being especially good, including with basically these same players), and second because their wins against poor teams were not impressive. Their season, since then, has dramatically improved. BUT, they still had those first handful of poor-looking games. The win against PSU doesn't erase them anymore than Wisconsin's wins against Michigan and Iowa erase the loss to Illinois.

Michigan and Iowa are both good teams.

Penn State is an upper echelon team.  College football committee liked them enough to place them at #4.  That's a playoff team.

Where do you place Illinois as far as good wins are?  Do you consider them a good win now?  Are they quality?

I see it as Minnesota has one excellent win and Wisconsin has two good wins and one bad loss.  Also Minnesota is undefeated and Wisconsin has two losses.  Penn State has already beaten both of Wisconsin's good win teams.


And I could care less about how they played at the beginning of the season.  They haven't shown shades of that since.  They haven't had an Illinois game.  
 

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #37 on: November 13, 2019, 07:44:54 AM »
Michigan and Iowa are both good teams.

Penn State is an upper echelon team.  College football committee liked them enough to place them at #4.  That's a playoff team.

Where do you place Illinois as far as good wins are?  Do you consider them a good win now?  Are they quality?

I see it as Minnesota has one excellent win and Wisconsin has two good wins and one bad loss.  Also Minnesota is undefeated and Wisconsin has two losses.  Penn State has already beaten both of Wisconsin's good win teams.


And I could care less about how they played at the beginning of the season.  They haven't shown shades of that since.  They haven't had an Illinois game. 
 

Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.

But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.

If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.

Benthere2

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #38 on: November 13, 2019, 07:49:12 AM »
1) OSU - demolishes every opponent
2) Wisconsin - no shame in losing to OSU or Illinois
3) Michigan - PSU D had nothing to do with that dropped pass in the end zone
4) PSU - not better than the teams above them
5) Iowa - better than the teams below them
6) Illinois - would beat every team below them, on a neutral field
7) Indiana -  only losses to OSU & MSU (before their confidence crushing stretch)
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season
9) MSU - tough break playing 3 top 10 teams in a row, maybe should be higher?
10) Purdue - too many injuries
11) Nebraska - too many injuries
12) Maryland - too many injuries
13) NW - hopefully they win this weekend
14) Rutgers - let's hope they get better
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season

What really has the guys you have 2-6 done that is so impressive to put Minny at 8?  dude stop hating because it disqualifies all your points of views
the CFB championship group has them at 8 in the country
its time for you to grow up and accept 
I am sure it is because you dont like PJ but what the team is doing on the field is worthy of something better than "but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season"

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2019, 09:37:47 AM »
Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.

But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.

If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.
This is pretty much where I am at.  Here is Minnesota's resume in order:
First there were four unimpressive wins over bad teams:
  • By only a TD at home over an FCS opponent
  • By only a FG on the road over a sub .500 MWC opponent 
  • By only a FG at home over a mediocre Sun Belt team (for comparison, LSU beat this same opponent by more than 50)
  • By only a TD on the road over a bad B1G team that is probably not going to make a bowl
Then there were four solid wins against one decent and three bad teams:
  • By 23 at home over a (now) pretty good looking B1G team that will bowl this year
  • By 27 at home over a sub .500 B1G team that is probably not going to make a bowl
  • By 35 on the road over a horrible B1G team that has already clinched bowl ineligibility and lost their other B1G games this year by 52, 41, 35, 30, and 28 points.  Ie, beating RU by 35 doesn't impress anyone because everyone does it.  
  • By 42 at home over a B1G team that has already clinched bowl ineligibility and lost their other B1G games this year by 59, 59, 31, 26, and 6 points.  Maryland did beat Rutgers by 41 but that is Rutgers.  Ie, beating Maryland by 42 is nice but doesn't really stand out.  
Then there was one win over a good or possibly great team:
  • By 5 at home over a B1G team that remains in the B1GCG race.  

I get that teams can improve over the course of the season.  I am even convinced that Minnesota has improved relative to the rest of the league.  That said, they had a LONG way to go.  Coming off of the Purdue game they looked like about the 10th best team in the league.  Even completely ignoring Minnesota's weak OOC and their unimpressive win over Purdue, Minnesota hasn't looked like the best team in the league and they haven't stood out relative to the rest of the teams in the second group (PSU, UW, M, IA).  

Looking only at Minnesota's last five games and comparing them to the rest of that second group:
Illinois:
  • Minnesota's 23 point win at home is obviously a lot better than Wisconsin's 1 point road loss but it is about equal to Michigan's 17 point road win.  
Nebraska:
  • Minnesota's 27 point win at home looks good but none of the other second group teams have played UNL yet so there aren't any comparisons.  
Rutgers:
  • Minnesota's 35 point win on the road is better than Iowa's 30 point win at home but not as good as Michigan's 52 point win at home.  
Maryland:
  • Minnesota's 42 point win at home is a little better than Michigan's 31 point win on the road but not as good as Penn State's 59 point win on the road.  
Penn State:
  • Minnesota's 5 point win at home is slightly better than Michigan's and Iowa's 7 point and 5 point road and home losses respectively.  

None of this suggests that Minnesota is clearly better than the rest of that second group.  The Iowa game will provide not only a H2H against Iowa but also a common opponent with each of the rest of the teams in this second group:
  • Penn State beat Iowa by 5 in Iowa City
  • Michigan beat Iowa by 7 in Ann Arbor
  • Wisconsin beat Iowa by 2 in Madison

Thus, if Minnesota's game against Iowa is decided by one score* it will be about equal to PSU's, M's, and UW's games against Iowa.  That is the baseline.  If Minnesota does better than that, then I will think that it is time to move them to the top of the second group.  If not, then I'll still have them in with PSU/UW/M/IA.  

*I would effectively consider a game to be a "one score" game even if a late score makes it 10 or more so long as it was competitive until very late in the game.  


ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2019, 09:53:23 AM »
Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 112 rankings (last week in parenthesis)

  • OHIO STATE (1)
  • LSU (2)
  • Clemson (4)
  • PENN STATE (3)
  • Alabama (5)
  • Oregon (6)
  • Georgia (9)
  • MINNESOTA (14)
  • Auburn (7)
  • Utah (8)
  • Oklahoma (10)
  • Baylor (11)
  • Florida (13)
  • WISCONSIN (15)
  • MICHIGAN (12)
  • Cincinnati (16)
  • Notre Dame (19)
  • Memphis (17)
  • Navy (21)
  • IOWA (18)
  • SMU (22)
  • Boise State (24)
  • Texas (-)
  • Kansas State (23)
  • Oklahoma State (25)




  • 34. Indiana (33)
  • 40. Michigan State (36)
  • 50. Illinois (66)
  • 74. Nebraska (72)
  • 77. Purdue (80)
  • 91. Maryland (94)
  • 108. Northwestern (102)
  • 118. Rutgers (118)


RestingB!tchFace

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 11
« Reply #41 on: November 13, 2019, 10:09:06 AM »
Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.

But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.

If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.

Let what go?  I think that Ohio State will beat Penn State....but let's see it.  Every cranked on the Gophers over "not playing anyone" and even after beating PSU, we're still seeing a similar trend for some.  If you want to play the 'well who did you actually beat' game....then don't whine when your team comes into play.  I thought the Penn State game was supposed to quiet some of the skepticism.

Guess it is what it is.  The Gophers could very well lose to Iowa this weekend.  Penn State could beat OSU.  What if that happened?  I'd guess that the Gophers win over PSU would still be considered a mirage?  Quite a few posters still do.  Ranked #7 in the AP and #8 in the CFP ranking yet #5 in the Big Ten according to some here.


 

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