CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 08, 2019, 04:17:07 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-10-12006/).
Votes through The Loon, 16 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/F0cPNC2.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/essJTID.png)
Note above that we have some differences between the two tables. PSU is second and Minnesota third in the raw totals but that flips after eliminating the high and low votes mostly because Minnesota's low vote is 8th where PSU's is only 4th. Similarly, Northwestern and Maryland are tied for 12/13 in the raw totals but Northwestern pulls slightly ahead once the high and low votes are eliminated mostly because Maryland's high vote is for 10th while Northwestern's is only 12th.
Graph of rankings so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/gJkf6Dk.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/34bDpEK.jpg)
Change from the preseason, aka the COTY prediction chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/KG8V58r.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/onNRqaP.png)
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Michigan
5) Minnesota (+1)
6) Iowa (-1)
7) Indiana (+1)
8) Illinois (+2)
9) Michigan State (-2)
10) Maryland (-1)
11) Purdue
12) Nebraska
13) Northwestern
14) Rutgers
Yah I saw the Gophers upset PSU, I think it was an upset. If they play again in Indy; I, and I bet Vegas would have PSU favored again.
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1. Ohio State - As always.
2. Minnesota - Proved they deserve this ranking now.
3. Penn State - They're still better than everyone else.
4. Michigan - Looking forward to next weekend.
5. Wisconsin - Not a great sign for their defense with Iowa having some success against them.
6. Iowa - Their best showing yet against a good team but still a loss.
7. Illinois - Great comeback win for them.
8. Michigan State - Only this high because they beat the Hoosiers.
9. Indiana - Still not sold because they have no top wins and the Sparty loss looks worse by the week.
10. Purdue - They have beaten the teams below them if nothing else.
11. Nebraska - Can they beat the Badgers or Hawkeyes and take care of the Terps to get to 6 wins???
12. Northwestern - At least they're keeping some of their games close.
13. Maryland - Just not even competitive against anyone above them.
14. Rutgers - Obviously.
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1 Buckeyes
2 Golden Gophers
3 Nittany Lions
4 Badgers
5 Wolverines
6 Hawkeyes
7 Fighting Illini
8 Spartans
9 Hoosiers
10 Boiler Makers
11 Corn Huskers
12 Terrapins
13 Wildcats
14 Scarlet Knights
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1. Ohio State
2. Minnesota
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1. Minnesota
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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1. OSU
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2. Minn
3. Wisc
4. PSU
5.. Mich
6. Iowa
7. Indy
8. ILL
9. MSU
10. Pur
11. Neb
12. NW
13. MD
14. Rut
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1. Ohio State: The Chase Young Heisman dream may be dead, but the team is still good. The spread against Rutgers should be interesting to see.
2. Minnesota: Pretty impressive effort against Penn State. PSU has a good defense and the Gophers just torched them. Did not expect that. They have a big offensive line and a good running game, and their QB just went 18/20 for 339 against a top ten defense. They head to Kinnick next in a huge game - win there and @NW and they win the West. Otherwise they have to beat Wiscy.
3. Penn State: Went on the road against a good team and lost. No shame in that, though they will be kicking themselves at all the missed opportunities. Their defense didn't get the job done, but the offense looked strong and consistent, which had been a real problem. They need to get their secondary sorted out because Indiana loves to throw.
4. Wisconsin: Didn't get to see their game because I was watching LSU, but the box score says they looked pretty strong despite a close final score. Nearly 500 yards, including 300 yards rushing, and held Iowa to less than 300 yards. They need to root like hell for Iowa against the Gophers so they can get back in the division race.
5. Michigan: Got a rest week before they welcome in Sparty for the annual WTF game.
6. Iowa: Made it interesting at the end, but still outplayed significantly. Can they hold down the Gophers?
7. Indiana: It's Peyton Ramsey's show now, and they visit Penn State to try and spring a big win.
8. Illinois: I mean, yes? They went on the road and somehow won against Sparty despite looking incompetent for much of the game. Even their last play looked incompetent as they ran like 20 seconds off the clock yet they scored and Lovie is life.
9. Michigan State: Man, they roll up over 500 yards and still lose. Brutal. Now they head to Michigan, where they definitely won't have over 500 yards.
10. Purdue: Allowed NW to score points, which is bad, but they won, which is good.
11. Nebraska: Still waiting on signs this is going somewhere.
12. Northwestern: Scored touchdowns! But lost.
13. Maryland: Awful
14. Rutgers: Give us Schiano.
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1. Ohio State
2. Minnesota - I'm sold. PJ Barnum has the kids playing to win.
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Illinois - Yep. Lovie has them pointed in the right direction
8. Indiana
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14.
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I'm trying to figure out what to do with Wisconsin/Michigan/Penn State/Iowa. They all look very close to me.
Wisconsin has the best win but also the worst loss.
Penn State has a road win within the group so that is good.
Michigan looked terrible in Madison and lost at Penn State but they appear to be improved.
Iowa lacks a quality win and is 0-3 against the group but all three losses were one score and two were on the road.
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Iowa lacks a quality win and is 0-3 against the group but all three losses were one score and two were on the road.
Home/Road hasn't mattered much, historically in the Badger/Hawkeye series.
Record of Wisconsin (vs Iowa), 1869-2018
| Site | First Meeting | Last Meeting | Games | Win % | Wins | Losses | Ties | Average Score |
| Any | 1894 | 2018 | 92 | 0.522 | 47 | 43 | 2 | 17.99 | 16.86 |
| Home | 1894 | 2017 | 47 | 0.585 | 27 | 19 | 1 | 20.43 | 15.06 |
| Away | 1907 | 2018 | 45 | 0.456 | 20 | 24 | 1 | 15.44 | 18.73 |
| Neutral | |
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1. Ohio State
2. Minnesota
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Indiana
7. Iowa
8. Illinois
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (2)
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan (4)
5) Minnesota (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Indiana (8)
8) Illinois (9)
9) Michigan State (7)
10) Purdue (10)
11) Nebraska (11)
12) Maryland (12)
13) Northwestern (13)
14) Rutgers (14)
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1. Ohio State - Nothing has changed, still looking like the best team in the conf.
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2. Minnesota - Very impressed with the win. Not sure they are in the same league with the Bucks, but right now they look like the best of the next group.
3. Penn State - I would be interested to see how they would do if this game were played in a neutral site. I think the PSU and Minn are about equal at this point.
4. Wisconsin - Good win over a strong Iowa team. Will get a chance to move up in a couple of weeks.
5. Michigan - Bye week.
6. Indiana - Bye week.
7. Iowa - Showed some offense against one of the countries better defenses. Still looking for their first quality win. Will get their chance this weekend.
8. Illinois - One of their biggest wins in the last 4 years. Congrats, they are going bowling. And welcome to the middle tier of teams!
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9. Michigan State - This team just looks lost. Dantonio needs to shake up his coaching staff by letting some of the go and bringing in some fresh minds. What he as now is not working. Moving them down into the bottom group.
10. Purdue - Hard fought win. I heard that their last 19 TD's were all scored by Freshmen. That will pay off in the next couple of seasons.
11. Nebraska - Bye week
12. Northwestern - At least they finally found the end zone a couple of times.
13. Maryland - Were completely out matched.
14. Rutgers - Had a week off to prepare for the Buckeyes. Maybe that's all they needed.
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- OHIO STATE (1) - who needs Chase Young
- MINNESOTA (5) - OK, I'm a believer
- PENN STATE (2) - takes a lot of the hype away from the PSU-OSU matchup in two weeks
- WISCONSIN (3) - nice job salvaging after a near collapse
- MICHIGAN (4) - bye week
- IOWA (6) - championship hopes are gone, but ruining Minnesota's best season in 60 years would still be nice
- INDIANA (7) - bye week
- ILLINOIS (9) - the turnovers they keep getting...unreal
- MICHIGAN STATE (8) - just put a stake in them
- PURDUE (10) - well, a win is a win
- NEBRASKA (12) - bye week
- MARYLAND (11) - yikes
- NORTHWESTERN (13) - finally got a little offense, and the defense couldn't stop a redshirt third string QB
- RUTGERS (14)
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1. OSU
2. Minnesota
3. PSU
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4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
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13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.
2) Hmm. I'm going with Penn State, but not easily. On a neutral field, of the non-Ohio State teams, I'm thinking Penn State. Wins against Michigan and Iowa matter.
3) Wisconsin. Same as #2. Head-to-head over Michigan matters. Iowa is always a fight (almost always, anyway), but that wasn't as inspiring as I would have liked.
4) Michigan: what was the phrase, "flattering long-term arrows?" Solid wins against Iowa and Notre Dame. So trending in the right direction, but still losses to two of the three ahead of it.
5) Minnesota: why this low? Because the season is 9 weeks old now, not one, and Minnesota has one quality win. But it was a good one, and with games at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin remaining, could very well end up #2 heading into the conference championship game.
6) Iowa: three close losses to teams ahead of it in the ratings. Minnesota next weekend should be a good one.
Now it gets hard...
7) Indiana: on the strength of wins and losses. But man, this is shaky.
8) Illinois? Because of flattering long-term arrows, the best win of any team this low, and a striking comeback against Sparty? Sure, why not.
9) Michigan State: oof. Should have been #7, until giving up 27 points in the 4th quarter to the Illini.
10) Purdue: yeah, this "high."
11) Nebraska
12) Northwestern
13) Maryland: not too much shame in that; Ohio State is really good.
14) Rutgers. Because Rutgers.
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Interesting to note that the 3 newbies are generally in the bottom 4 of these rankings, with NU. Would be interesting to see where these teams would stand if they were in their prior conferences (or AAC, as it stands for you-know-who).
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You have to be sound in the kicking game...and other ways to screw up football games.
Consider: Michigan State gave up 27 points in the 4th quarter. My immediate question was how does that happen? Big plays? Of course. But how many bombs can you give up? One for 83 yards, one for 37--on 4th and 17...and a 76-yard pick six. Add in a pass interference on 4th and goal, giving the Illini a free set of downs, and--voila!--epic collapse. Of course, MSU was -2 for turnovers.
How did Wisconsin out gain Iowa by nearly 200 yards, and only win by 2 at home? -1 on turnovers, a missed field goal, and being on the wrong side of 8 (I think) penalties.
How did Wisconsin lose to Illinois? Big play: check (47-yard TD pass); missed field goal: check; another big play (46-yards, right after a defensive penalty took a 3rd and 8 and made it 3rd and 3); and turnovers (-2, including two in the 4th quarter); and 6-60 in penalties.
Penn State loses to Minnesota? PSU -2 on turnovers, and Minnesota averaged 17 yards per pass, with a handful of big ones mixed in (TDs of 66, 21, 38, plus another 36-yarder to set up the other TD). It's Minnesota torching PSU's defense in the passing game that should really worry Iowa, NW, and Wisconsin. How does that happen!?!
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I read that PSU got very little pressure on the QB. That's gonna help the passing game.
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You have to be sound in the kicking game...and other ways to screw up football games.
Consider: Michigan State gave up 27 points in the 4th quarter. My immediate question was how does that happen? Big plays? Of course. But how many bombs can you give up? One for 83 yards, one for 37--on 4th and 17...and a 76-yard pick six. Add in a pass interference on 4th and goal, giving the Illini a free set of downs, and--voila!--epic collapse. Of course, MSU was -2 for turnovers.
How did Wisconsin out gain Iowa by nearly 200 yards, and only win by 2 at home? -1 on turnovers, a missed field goal, and being on the wrong side of 8 (I think) penalties.
How did Wisconsin lose to Illinois? Big play: check (47-yard TD pass); missed field goal: check; another big play (46-yards, right after a defensive penalty took a 3rd and 8 and made it 3rd and 3); and turnovers (-2, including two in the 4th quarter); and 6-60 in penalties.
Penn State loses to Minnesota? PSU -2 on turnovers, and Minnesota averaged 17 yards per pass, with a handful of big ones mixed in (TDs of 66, 21, 38, plus another 36-yarder to set up the other TD). It's Minnesota torching PSU's defense in the passing game that should really worry Iowa, NW, and Wisconsin. How does that happen!?!
I read from somebody years ago that the keys to winning football games are:
- Turnover margin
- 3rd down success rate
- Time of possession
Generally, if you win 2 of the 3, you should be winning the game. If you win all 3, it's rare that you'll lose the game.
Granted, the guy who argued this also argued that TOP didn't matter for Purdue due to the "basketball on grass" offense, and I'd argue that as the game has gotten more pass-happy and spread-oriented, it has much less weight. Especially in the age of HUNH offenses.
But turnover margin is and will always be huge. The more possessions you get, the more you can score. Each turnover takes an opponent's possession, and USUALLY it's with better field position than you'd get from a punt.
I think 3rd down success rate is still huge, because unless you're scoring on multiple big plays, it's all about sustaining drives.
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Interesting to note that the 3 newbies are generally in the bottom 4 of these rankings, with NU. Would be interesting to see where these teams would stand if they were in their prior conferences (or AAC, as it stands for you-know-who).
can't speak for everyone, but I think UNL would be in about the same situation in the Big 12
Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma St, Kansas St. and Iowa St would be similar to Ohio St., Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue
if the Huskers couldn't win vs Purdue on the road or Indiana at home, there's no reason to think they would do better vs the Big 12
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They might still be recruiting Texas, had they stayed.
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they might still be winning 8-9 games if they hadn't fired Pelini
with or w/o Texas recruits
btw, Frost has a verbal from a WR from Texas in the 2020 class
signed a DE from Texas in Frost's 2019 class
2 kids from Texas in Frost's 1st class in 2018 - Washington not on the roster
2017 two kids, one starting, one playing behind his big brother at nose tackle
yes, not as many as back in 2008. 9 kids from Texas -
Whitmore, David - CB
Thompson, Brandon - OT
Osborne, Courtney - ATH
Osborne, Steven - WR
Whaley, Alonzo - OLB
Williams, Josh - DE
Grant, David - OT
Spano, Kody - QB
Ward, Lester - RB
of that group, Whaley had a decent career, started his senior season
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I read from somebody years ago that the keys to winning football games are:
- Turnover margin
- 3rd down success rate
- Time of possession
Generally, if you win 2 of the 3, you should be winning the game. If you win all 3, it's rare that you'll lose the game.
Wisconsin ranks in the top-five of the Big Ten in nearly all of the most important “winning” statistics – third-down conversions (2nd), opponent third-down conversions (1st), fourth-down conversions (1st), penalties committed (4th), time of possession (1st), turnover margin (5th), and red-zone defense (2nd).
The Huskers, on the other hand, rank no higher than sixth in any of those categories. Nebraska is going to have to be as close to perfect as it's been this year to win on Saturday.
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5) Minnesota: why this low? Because the season is 9 weeks old now, not one, and Minnesota has one quality win. But it was a good one, and with games at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin remaining, could very well end up #2 heading into the conference championship game.
You DO realize that Wisconsin just picked up their second quality win this past weekend, right?
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two more than the Hawkeyes?
Unless you count ISU as a quality win for the Hawks
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SP+
1. OSU (1)
2. PSU (7)
3. Wisconsin (11)
4. Minnesota (13)
5. Michigan (15)
6. Indiana (19)
7. Iowa (23)
8. MSU (35)
9. Illinois (53)
10. Nebraska (57)
11. Purdue (59)
12. Maryland (80)
13. Northwestern (90)
14. Rutgers (107)
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1. Minnesota
2. Ohio State
At the end of the season you may be right but as of right now there is simply no justification for this. They have two common opponents:
- Nebraska: Ohio State won by 41 on the road, Minnesota won by 27 at home.
- Maryland: Ohio State won by 59 at home, Minnesota won by 31 at home.
Ohio State has been flat out dominant every single week. Minnesota scraped by against mediocre-to-bad teams for the first couple months then the last five games they have been good, but still not as dominant as Ohio State (see Nebraska and Maryland comparisons).
Common opponents yet to be played:
- Penn State: Minnesota won at home by 5, Ohio State plays them at home on 11/23
- Wisconsin: Ohio State won at home by 31, Minnesota plays them at home on 11/30
- Northwestern: Ohio State won on the road by 49, Minnesota plays them on the road on 11/23
- Rutgers: Minnesota beat them by 35 on the road, Ohio State plays them on the road this weekend.
Before the CG we will have six common opponents to use when comparing Ohio State and Minnesota. The Buckeyes are already up 2-0. We'll pick up one more this weekend (Rutgers). I think Ohio State will win by more than 35 unless the weather is just awful. Next weekend we'll pick up two more when Ohio State plays Penn State and Minnesota plays Northwestern. If I had to guess right now, I would guess that Ohio State will beat PSU by more than 5 and Minnesota will not beat Northwestern by 50+. Then on November 30 we'll pick up our sixth and final common opponent and I doubt that Minnesota will beat Wisconsin by more than 31.
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Home/Road hasn't mattered much, historically in the Badger/Hawkeye series.
Record of Wisconsin (vs Iowa), 1869-2018
| Site | First Meeting | Last Meeting | Games | Win % | Wins | Losses | Ties | Average Score |
| Any | 1894 | 2018 | 92 | 0.522 | 47 | 43 | 2 | 17.99 | 16.86 |
| Home | 1894 | 2017 | 47 | 0.585 | 27 | 19 | 1 | 20.43 | 15.06 |
| Away | 1907 | 2018 | 45 | 0.456 | 20 | 24 | 1 | 15.44 | 18.73 |
| Neutral | |
I'm not reading that the same way you are. Against Iowa, Wisconsin is:
- .585, 27-19-1 in Madison with an average score of Wisconsin 20, Iowa 15
- .456, 20-24-1 in Iowa City with an average score of Iowa 19, Wisconsin 15
That feels like a decent sized gap to me.
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7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
I read this as:
- 7 Indiana
- 8 Illinois
- 9 Michigan State
- 10 Purdue
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - I really didn't expect Ohio State to match PSU's 59 point win over Maryland, but they did.
- Penn State - 2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - Yes, I know that Penn State lost to Minnesota but, at least for now, they still have twice as many quality wins as the Gophers. FWIW, I think #2 through #6 are all thisclose together.
- Wisconsin - 3,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - Now they just need Iowa to knock off Minnesota and they'll have a chance to get to the CG.
- Michigan - 4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - 0-2 against teams above this, 4-0 against teams below this.
- Minnesota - 6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated with Iowa on the road this weekend. If they win in Iowa City they'll have the best resume of the 2-6 group, right now they don't.
- Iowa - 5,5,5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - Iowa is 0-3 in games against teams above this, but the three losses were by a combined 14 points and two of the three games were on the road.
- Illinois - 9,9,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - Does anyone think they would lose to Nebraska if the two played again?
- Michigan State - 7,7,7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - 0-4 against teams above this, 2-0 against teams below this.
- Indiana - 8,8,10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - Looking good but I dropped them behind Illinois because the Illini now have two wins (MSU, UW) better than any of the Hoosiers' wins.
- Purdue - 10,11,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl plans on life support.
- Nebraska - 11,10,11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Ouch!
- Northwestern - 12,12,8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - Well at least they scored.
- Maryland - 13,13,12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.
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1) OSU - demolishes every opponent
2) Wisconsin - no shame in losing to OSU or Illinois
3) Michigan - PSU D had nothing to do with that dropped pass in the end zone
4) PSU - not better than the teams above them
5) Iowa - better than the teams below them
6) Illinois - would beat every team below them, on a neutral field
7) Indiana - only losses to OSU & MSU (before their confidence crushing stretch)
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season
9) MSU - tough break playing 3 top 10 teams in a row, maybe should be higher?
10) Purdue - too many injuries
11) Nebraska - too many injuries
12) Maryland - too many injuries
13) NW - hopefully they win this weekend
14) Rutgers - let's hope they get better
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At the end of the season you may be right but as of right now there is simply no justification for this. They have two common opponents:
- Nebraska: Ohio State won by 41 on the road, Minnesota won by 27 at home.
- Maryland: Ohio State won by 59 at home, Minnesota won by 31 at home.
Ohio State has been flat out dominant every single week. Minnesota scraped by against mediocre-to-bad teams for the first couple months then the last five games they have been good, but still not as dominant as Ohio State (see Nebraska and Maryland comparisons).
Common opponents yet to be played:
- Penn State: Minnesota won at home by 5, Ohio State plays them at home on 11/23
- Wisconsin: Ohio State won at home by 31, Minnesota plays them at home on 11/30
- Northwestern: Ohio State won on the road by 49, Minnesota plays them on the road on 11/23
- Rutgers: Minnesota beat them by 35 on the road, Ohio State plays them on the road this weekend.
Before the CG we will have six common opponents to use when comparing Ohio State and Minnesota. The Buckeyes are already up 2-0. We'll pick up one more this weekend (Rutgers). I think Ohio State will win by more than 35 unless the weather is just awful. Next weekend we'll pick up two more when Ohio State plays Penn State and Minnesota plays Northwestern. If I had to guess right now, I would guess that Ohio State will beat PSU by more than 5 and Minnesota will not beat Northwestern by 50+. Then on November 30 we'll pick up our sixth and final common opponent and I doubt that Minnesota will beat Wisconsin by more than 31.
Honestly....it's more of just being a dink. Now the Gophers have the best win at this point in the season....where everyone was busting on them for the longest time about their weak schedule. Hell....there's still posters that have them as low as fifth. Want to talk about justification?
Get by Penn State and we'll talk (wink).
And people need to get over those first few weeks already. They are a completely different team than the one from September.
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5. Minnesota - 6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated with Iowa on the road this weekend. If they win in Iowa City they'll have the best resume of the 2-6 group, right now they don't.
😏
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1) Yup, turnovers are huge. And I would argue that a missed field goal basically equals a lost fumble.
2) I do realize that Wisconsin has exactly two quality wins, which is exactly two times as many as Minnesota. Wisconsin also has one bad loss (sorry, Illinois may be much better than expected, but that's still a bad loss for Wisconsin), and one loss to a team unlike any that Minnesota has played. Based on the current results, through week 9, I see Wisconsin as #3, and Minnesota as #5, part of a group of #2-5 that are very close. Minnesota beats Iowa next week and it likely moves up. How much is hard to say, but 10-0, with two quality wins, is better than 8-2, with two quality wins and a bad loss. You can remember that I said that.
3) I am always amused by the "they are much better now" argument. I think that's uncommon. Somewhat better, perhaps. More likely, they have much better results, but that's not the same as being much better. Results are often a function of match-ups.
That said, Minnesota may be an example of a team that has dramatically improved. Certainly, Minnesota's first three games were not inspiring. Since then, it has ticked off several convincing wins against weak teams, followed by a very impressive win against Penn State. Minnesota couldn't be viewed as especially good early in the season, first, because they didn't play anyone of note (and have no history of being especially good, including with basically these same players), and second because their wins against poor teams were not impressive. Their season, since then, has dramatically improved. BUT, they still had those first handful of poor-looking games. The win against PSU doesn't erase them anymore than Wisconsin's wins against Michigan and Iowa erase the loss to Illinois.
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1) Yup, turnovers are huge. And I would argue that a missed field goal basically equals a lost fumble.
2) I do realize that Wisconsin has exactly two quality wins, which is exactly two times as many as Minnesota. Wisconsin also has one bad loss (sorry, Illinois may be much better than expected, but that's still a bad loss for Wisconsin), and one loss to a team unlike any that Minnesota has played. Based on the current results, through week 9, I see Wisconsin as #3, and Minnesota as #5, part of a group of #2-5 that are very close. Minnesota beats Iowa next week and it likely moves up. How much is hard to say, but 10-0, with two quality wins, is better than 8-2, with two quality wins and a bad loss. You can remember that I said that.
3) I am always amused by the "they are much better now" argument. I think that's uncommon. Somewhat better, perhaps. More likely, they have much better results, but that's not the same as being much better. Results are often a function of match-ups.
That said, Minnesota may be an example of a team that has dramatically improved. Certainly, Minnesota's first three games were not inspiring. Since then, it has ticked off several convincing wins against weak teams, followed by a very impressive win against Penn State. Minnesota couldn't be viewed as especially good early in the season, first, because they didn't play anyone of note (and have no history of being especially good, including with basically these same players), and second because their wins against poor teams were not impressive. Their season, since then, has dramatically improved. BUT, they still had those first handful of poor-looking games. The win against PSU doesn't erase them anymore than Wisconsin's wins against Michigan and Iowa erase the loss to Illinois.
Michigan and Iowa are both good teams.
Penn State is an upper echelon team. College football committee liked them enough to place them at #4. That's a playoff team.
Where do you place Illinois as far as good wins are? Do you consider them a good win now? Are they quality?
I see it as Minnesota has one excellent win and Wisconsin has two good wins and one bad loss. Also Minnesota is undefeated and Wisconsin has two losses. Penn State has already beaten both of Wisconsin's good win teams.
And I could care less about how they played at the beginning of the season. They haven't shown shades of that since. They haven't had an Illinois game.
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Michigan and Iowa are both good teams.
Penn State is an upper echelon team. College football committee liked them enough to place them at #4. That's a playoff team.
Where do you place Illinois as far as good wins are? Do you consider them a good win now? Are they quality?
I see it as Minnesota has one excellent win and Wisconsin has two good wins and one bad loss. Also Minnesota is undefeated and Wisconsin has two losses. Penn State has already beaten both of Wisconsin's good win teams.
And I could care less about how they played at the beginning of the season. They haven't shown shades of that since. They haven't had an Illinois game.
Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.
But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.
If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.
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1) OSU - demolishes every opponent
2) Wisconsin - no shame in losing to OSU or Illinois
3) Michigan - PSU D had nothing to do with that dropped pass in the end zone
4) PSU - not better than the teams above them
5) Iowa - better than the teams below them
6) Illinois - would beat every team below them, on a neutral field
7) Indiana - only losses to OSU & MSU (before their confidence crushing stretch)
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season
9) MSU - tough break playing 3 top 10 teams in a row, maybe should be higher?
10) Purdue - too many injuries
11) Nebraska - too many injuries
12) Maryland - too many injuries
13) NW - hopefully they win this weekend
14) Rutgers - let's hope they get better
8) Minnesota - winning, but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season
What really has the guys you have 2-6 done that is so impressive to put Minny at 8? dude stop hating because it disqualifies all your points of views
the CFB championship group has them at 8 in the country
its time for you to grow up and accept
I am sure it is because you dont like PJ but what the team is doing on the field is worthy of something better than "but beating 1 good team doesn't make a season"
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Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.
But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.
If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.
This is pretty much where I am at. Here is Minnesota's resume in order:
First there were four unimpressive wins over bad teams:
- By only a TD at home over an FCS opponent
- By only a FG on the road over a sub .500 MWC opponent
- By only a FG at home over a mediocre Sun Belt team (for comparison, LSU beat this same opponent by more than 50)
- By only a TD on the road over a bad B1G team that is probably not going to make a bowl
Then there were four solid wins against one decent and three bad teams:
- By 23 at home over a (now) pretty good looking B1G team that will bowl this year
- By 27 at home over a sub .500 B1G team that is probably not going to make a bowl
- By 35 on the road over a horrible B1G team that has already clinched bowl ineligibility and lost their other B1G games this year by 52, 41, 35, 30, and 28 points. Ie, beating RU by 35 doesn't impress anyone because everyone does it.
- By 42 at home over a B1G team that has already clinched bowl ineligibility and lost their other B1G games this year by 59, 59, 31, 26, and 6 points. Maryland did beat Rutgers by 41 but that is Rutgers. Ie, beating Maryland by 42 is nice but doesn't really stand out.
Then there was one win over a good or possibly great team:
- By 5 at home over a B1G team that remains in the B1GCG race.
I get that teams can improve over the course of the season. I am even convinced that Minnesota has improved relative to the rest of the league. That said, they had a LONG way to go. Coming off of the Purdue game they looked like about the 10th best team in the league. Even completely ignoring Minnesota's weak OOC and their unimpressive win over Purdue, Minnesota hasn't looked like the best team in the league and they haven't stood out relative to the rest of the teams in the second group (PSU, UW, M, IA).
Looking only at Minnesota's last five games and comparing them to the rest of that second group:
Illinois:
- Minnesota's 23 point win at home is obviously a lot better than Wisconsin's 1 point road loss but it is about equal to Michigan's 17 point road win.
Nebraska:
- Minnesota's 27 point win at home looks good but none of the other second group teams have played UNL yet so there aren't any comparisons.
Rutgers:
- Minnesota's 35 point win on the road is better than Iowa's 30 point win at home but not as good as Michigan's 52 point win at home.
Maryland:
- Minnesota's 42 point win at home is a little better than Michigan's 31 point win on the road but not as good as Penn State's 59 point win on the road.
Penn State:
- Minnesota's 5 point win at home is slightly better than Michigan's and Iowa's 7 point and 5 point road and home losses respectively.
None of this suggests that Minnesota is clearly better than the rest of that second group. The Iowa game will provide not only a H2H against Iowa but also a common opponent with each of the rest of the teams in this second group:
- Penn State beat Iowa by 5 in Iowa City
- Michigan beat Iowa by 7 in Ann Arbor
- Wisconsin beat Iowa by 2 in Madison
Thus, if Minnesota's game against Iowa is decided by one score* it will be about equal to PSU's, M's, and UW's games against Iowa. That is the baseline. If Minnesota does better than that, then I will think that it is time to move them to the top of the second group. If not, then I'll still have them in with PSU/UW/M/IA.
*I would effectively consider a game to be a "one score" game even if a late score makes it 10 or more so long as it was competitive until very late in the game.
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Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 112 rankings (last week in parenthesis)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- LSU (2)
- Clemson (4)
- PENN STATE (3)
- Alabama (5)
- Oregon (6)
- Georgia (9)
- MINNESOTA (14)
- Auburn (7)
- Utah (8)
- Oklahoma (10)
- Baylor (11)
- Florida (13)
- WISCONSIN (15)
- MICHIGAN (12)
- Cincinnati (16)
- Notre Dame (19)
- Memphis (17)
- Navy (21)
- IOWA (18)
- SMU (22)
- Boise State (24)
- Texas (-)
- Kansas State (23)
- Oklahoma State (25)
- 34. Indiana (33)
- 40. Michigan State (36)
- 50. Illinois (66)
- 74. Nebraska (72)
- 77. Purdue (80)
- 91. Maryland (94)
- 108. Northwestern (102)
- 118. Rutgers (118)
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Dude, you need to take a breath and let it go. I understand were you are coming from and pretty much agree that Minn is a much better team today than they were at the start of the season so much so that I had them number 2 in my rankings.
But attacking everyone that doesn't agree with you is not going to change their minds. It will only alienate you and your opinions. As I said in another thread, the beauty of this whole thing is that Minn as the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to prove themselves. If they win, people on this board will move them up accordingly. Most of the folks here are very even keeled and are very fair in their assessments.
If Minn wins out or even 2 of their next 3 and are still being ranked around 6 or 7, you may have a gripe. But until they play the meat of their schedule, most people are going to be skeptical. It is what it is.
Let what go? I think that Ohio State will beat Penn State....but let's see it. Every cranked on the Gophers over "not playing anyone" and even after beating PSU, we're still seeing a similar trend for some. If you want to play the 'well who did you actually beat' game....then don't whine when your team comes into play. I thought the Penn State game was supposed to quiet some of the skepticism.
Guess it is what it is. The Gophers could very well lose to Iowa this weekend. Penn State could beat OSU. What if that happened? I'd guess that the Gophers win over PSU would still be considered a mirage? Quite a few posters still do. Ranked #7 in the AP and #8 in the CFP ranking yet #5 in the Big Ten according to some here.
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Winning on the road in November is hard, and upsets happen.
If Iowa beats Minnesota by one score, I'll probably keep Minnesota at 5 and Iowa at 6. If Minnesota beats Iowa by 14+, I'll likely move them up a couple spots.
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Let what go? I think that Ohio State will beat Penn State....but let's see it. Every cranked on the Gophers over "not playing anyone" and even after beating PSU, we're still seeing a similar trend for some. If you want to play the 'well who did you actually beat' game....then don't whine when your team comes into play. I thought the Penn State game was supposed to quiet some of the skepticism.
Guess it is what it is. The Gophers could very well lose to Iowa this weekend. Penn State could beat OSU. What if that happened? I'd guess that the Gophers win over PSU would still be considered a mirage? Quite a few posters still do. Ranked #7 in the AP and #8 in the CFP ranking yet #5 in the Big Ten according to some here.
All I am saying is that it will work itself out in the end. The way they look right now, I think Minn is as good as any team in the league outside of Ohio State. But that is simply my opinion and could very well prove to be wrong. Minn could be worse than those teams or better than Ohio State.
But as I said, the next 3 or 4 weeks will give us a better indication one way or another. And when it is all said and done, I trust that the people that post on this forum will put them where they honestly believe them to be in relation to the other teams in the B1G.
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Yeah, all are entitled to their opinions on this. I think most of the folks here see Minnesota as being among the group of four (Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota--moving east to west), all of whom are good and closely packed, and one step up from a solid Iowa team that had the misfortune of playing all but Minnesota before this week. How they are sorted from there is difficult, and it's tough for some of us to move Minnesota higher, and easier for others to do so. Unbeaten is unbeaten. That's nice, but it's also on a seriously back-loaded schedule.
I'm comfortable with Minnesota at five this week with the opportunity to move up if they beat Iowa on the road--something Penn State already did (with Wisconsin and Michigan each beating Iowa at their own houses--and all three by one score). To Penn State's credit, it has beaten both Michigan and Iowa, with it's close loss on the road to a solid team. To Wisconsin's credit it destroyed Michigan, and beat Iowa, but it still lost to Illinois. To Minnesota's credit it beat Penn State. And to Michigan's credit, it beat Iowa and housed Notre Dame, but it lost to Penn State and got spanked in Madison. For me that all averages out to Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, though as I'm reading it again now, I see a good argument for flipping Michigan and Minnesota. And it still doesn't matter.
With Minnesota traveling to Iowa this weekend and hosting Wisconsin to finish the regular season, we likely won't have to wonder where to rank them. How they rank vis a vis Michigan and Penn State may be harder. As I said in my rankings, on a neutral field playing again, I don't think Minnesota torches the Penn State secondary again, and I think PSU wins. Is that a shaky thing to say? Absolutely.
If Minnesota beats the Badgers by a hair (even at home) to finish the regular season unbeaten, they are my #2 on the basis of being unbeaten. But there are three games to play in the regular season, and we'll see.
For now, hell yes, I'm impressed with the way this season is going for Minnesota, but that still doesn't move them higher than #5 for me (but maybe #4). In my completely unimportant opinion.
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Winning on the road in November is hard, and upsets happen.
If Iowa beats Minnesota by one score, I'll probably keep Minnesota at 5 and Iowa at 6. If Minnesota beats Iowa by 14+, I'll likely move them up a couple spots.
Yep. Road games anywhere are hard. I'm not taking for granted a UW win in Lincoln this weekend either.
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I am, but I hope like hell I'm wrong
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Results posted, votes through The Loon, 16 voters. Sorry to be a little later than usual posting results this week.
There were some pretty substantial changes this week:
- Minnesota was up three spots to #2 from #5.
- PSU, UW, and M were each down a spot after being passed by Minnesota.
- Michigan State was down two spots to #9 from #7.
- Indiana and Illinois were each up one spot passing MSU.
- Northwestern and Maryland traded 12th/13th again so now Northwestern is back to 12th and Maryland is back to 13th.
Minnesota becomes the fourth team this year to hold the #2 spot:
- Michigan was tied for 1/2 in the preseason then dropped to #2 after week 1, then lost the #2 spot to:
- Wisconsin was #2 from week-2 through week-7 when they lost the #2 spot to:
- Penn State spent the last three weeks at #2 before losing the #2 spot to Minnesota.
Personally, I think that the voters here are overrating Minnesota and Indiana but I can see why. The Gophers and Hoosiers have the two highest standard deviations. The reason, I think, is that they and Ohio State are the only B1G teams to have only played one of the top-6 teams in the league so far.
In spite of only playing one of the top-6, the Buckeyes are a near-unanimous #1 for several reasons:
- They demolished the one top-6 opponent that they played (Wisconsin)
- The Buckeyes have either the biggest or one of the biggest wins so far this year against all six of their conference opponents, see below:
- Ohio State's 31 point win over #4 Wisconsin is by far the best anyone has done against Wisconsin with Illinois' one point win a distant second.
- Ohio State's 41 point win over #7 Indiana is by far the best anyone has done against Indiana with MSU's nine point (it was closer than that) win a distant second.
- Ohio State's 24 point win over MSU is the second biggest so far this year behind only Wisconsin's 38 point win over the Spartans.
- Ohio State's 41 point win over Nebraska is the best anyone has done against Nebraska with Minnesota's 27 point win being next best.
- Ohio State's 49 point win over Northwestern is by far the best anyone has done against Northwestern with Indiana's 31 point win being next best.
- Ohio State's 59 point win over Maryland is equal to PSU's margin (to be fair, PSU did it on the road while tOSU did it at home) with Minnesota (42), Michigan (31), and Purdue (26) also having blowout wins over the Terps.
Indiana:
The Hoosiers are 4-2 in conference and 7-2 overall which is great. Now for the problems:
- The Hoosiers' three OOC opponents were awful. Ball State is a midling MAC team, EIU is an FCS and a bad FCS team at that and UCONN is quite possibly the worst team in the entire FBS.
- The Hoosiers' four B1G wins were against the four teams that we currently have ranked 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th in the league.
- Worse, only two of those wins against the worst four teams in the B1G were by more than one score.
At this point I see the Hoosiers as being not substantially better than the worst four teams in the league. Their remaining games are at #3, vs #5, and at #10 and if Indiana beats any of them, that win will be their best of the year. Maybe they will, but until it happens . . .
Minnesota:
The Gophers have an even gaudier record than the Hoosiers at 9-0/6-0 which is great. Now for the problems:
- Minnesota's OOC was certainly better than Indiana's but not by all that much.
- Four of Minnesota's B1G wins came against four of the worst five teams in the B1G.
- Five of Minnesota's six B1G wins came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference (#8, #10, #11, #13, and #14).
I've always been leery of putting too much stock in any one game because we all know that upsets happen. I say that, and I can prove it. Illinois beat Wisconsin. We all know that. In spite of that nobody here has Illinois ranked higher than Wisconsin. In fact, nobody here has Illinois ranked higher than #6 nor Wisconsin lower than #5. Only one person has Illinois 6th and they have Wisconsin 2nd and only one person has Wisconsin 5th and they have Illinois 7th.
Nobody here has Illinois ranked closer than two spots behind Wisconsin and on average the 16 of us who voted have Illinois more than four spots behind Wisconsin.
My point is that literally every single one of us thinks that the better team failed to win the Illinois/Wisconsin game. There are games like this every year. Now back to Minnesota. Maybe the better team won the Minnesota/Penn State game. If so then Minnesota is likely the second best team in the league. If not then what?
My point is the same point that I made to @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) in another thread: At this point I would grade Minnesota as "incomplete". With only one game against a team in the top half of the league there just isn't much to go on.
This week's games:
- #1 Ohio State at #14 Rutgers
- #2 Minnesota at #6 Iowa
- #3 Penn State vs #7 Indiana
- #4 Wisconsin at #11 Nebraska
- #5 Michigan vs #9 Michigan State
- #8 Illinois is off
- #10 Purdue is off
- #12 Northwestern has an OOC game
- #13 Maryland is off
Overall that is a pretty uninteresting slate. In theory MSU could spring an upset in their rivalry game with Michigan or Nebraska could topple Wisconsin at home but I see those both as pretty unlikely. The most interesting games are the two in which the teams are separated by "only" four spots in the rankings: MN/IA and PSU/IU. Both have rather significant B1GCG implications and for both the Hoosiers and Gophers this is only their second game all year against a team currently ranked in the top half of the league.
After this weekend, in the last two weeks of the season we have a slew of intriguing games:
- #1 Ohio State has potentially loseable games against #3 and #5. The game against #3 will likely be for a spot in the B1GCG.
- #2 Minnesota has a potentially loseable game against #4. That could potentially be for the other spot in the B1GCG.
- #3 Penn State has a game at #1.
- #4 Wisconsin travels to #2.
- #5 Michigan travels to #7 and hosts #1.
- #6 Iowa hosts #8 and travels to #11.
- #7 Indiana hosts #5 and travels to #10.
- #8 Illinois hosts #6 and #12.
- #9 Michigan State plays the two worst teams in the league.
- #10 Purdue travels to #4 and hosts #7 (they need to win both to get to 6-6).
- #11 Nebraska hosts #6 and travels to #13.
- #12 Northwestern hosts #2 and travels to #8.
- #13 Maryland hosts #11 and travels to #9.
- #14 Rutgers hosts #9 and travels to #3.
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Also note, for the first time all year, more than half of us agree on each of the teams.
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Interesting to me is that except for Michigan being at home, all of the lower ranked teams are at home. This weekend is ripe for upsets, in my opinion.
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Intersting. Medina's summary made it sound like minny was the clear cut #2 in the standings, but when you check the actual numbers he posted back on page 1, it appears more like Minny and PSU are in a virtual tie for 2/3.
It's funny, I also debated with myself if Minny should really be #2, but I was debating if I should put Wiscy #2, not PSU. I still consider Wiscy's big win over Michigan the most impressive win so far for all the teams competing for #2. But that win is starting to feel like ancient history and the loss to ILL is starting to feel less and less like a fluke. I guess Wiscy's near collapse to Iowa was the final straw for me where I finally conceded, fine I guess I will move Minny up to #2 over Wiscy, although I still remain skeptical that Minny belongs there.
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Also note, for the first time all year, more than half of us agree on each of the teams.
we have enough data to dissuade illogical thinking
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Intersting. Medina's summary made it sound like minny was the clear cut #2 in the standings, but when you check the actual numbers he posted back on page 1, it appears more like Minny and PSU are in a virtual tie for 2/3.
It's funny, I also debated with myself if Minny should really be #2, but I was debating if I should put Wiscy #2, not PSU. I still consider Wiscy's big win over Michigan the most impressive win so far for all the teams competing for #2. But that win is starting to feel like ancient history and the loss to ILL is starting to feel less and less like a fluke. I guess Wiscy's near collapse to Iowa was the final straw for me where I finally conceded, fine I guess I will move Minny up to #2 over Wiscy, although I still remain skeptical that Minny belongs there.
It's tricky. Since the Gophers haven't played a very good schedule....it's hard to rank them. The Penn State game was supposed to be the 'real/not real' game. A lot of people....including the AP and the committee agreed that this...along with the destruction of multiple teams prior deservered a top ten ranking.
I guess medina is bitter that the OSU/PSU game isn't going to be a clash of the unbeatens? There's something there....where the Gophers have the best win in the conference....but he just doesn't like it. But losses to Illinois he likes.
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It's tricky. Since the Gophers haven't played a very good schedule....it's hard to rank them. The Penn State game was supposed to be the 'real/not real' game. A lot of people....including the AP and the committee agreed that this...along with the destruction of multiple teams prior deservered a top ten ranking.
I agree with the first paragraph which is pretty much what I said above. It is tricky to rank Minnesota because they haven't played a very good schedule which makes it hard to rank them. That is undoubtedly why, as I pointed out above, their ranking has the highest standard deviation in the whole conference. The vote distribution is also interesting, Minnesota's votes:
- They have one vote for #1, yours.
- The majority (10 of 16) voted them #2.
- Nobody voted them #3.
- Nobody voted them #4.
- Four of us (including me) voted them #5.
- Nobody voted them #6
- Nobody voted them #7.
- One person voted them #8.
I've been doing this compilation for a long time and it is fairly unusual for teams to have voids between groups of votes. Voids between the group and an outlier (like Minnesota's void between #5 and #8 aren't terribly unusual. However, if you throw out the outliers (as I do when I drop the high and low) you are still left with 10 votes for #2 then a two spot void (no votes for #3 or #4), then four votes for #5.
That happens because, as you said, it is tricky. We are all making assumptions. You and, to a lesser extent, the 10 people who voted the Gophers #2 have implicitly assumed that Minnesota has put their early season struggles completely behind them and they are now the best or second best team in the league. The Loon who voted them #8 and, to a lesser extent, the four of us (including me) who voted them #5 have implicitly assumed that those too-close early season games aren't necessarily completely behind the Gophers and that they are vulnerable and could or would lose at a neutral site to the rest of the teams in that group (PSU, UW, M, and IA).
I guess medina is bitter that the OSU/PSU game isn't going to be a clash of the unbeatens? There's something there....where the Gophers have the best win in the conference....but he just doesn't like it. But losses to Illinois he likes.
First, this entire paragraph is just completely unnecessary. You agreed that ranking Minnesota at this point is tricky, why make a personal attack over it?
Second, I could care less whether or not Ohio State's game with Penn State is a showdown of unbeatens. At this point Ohio State is #2 in all three rankings while Penn State is #9, #9, and #11. It is still a big game and in two out of three polls it is still a top-10 matchup. Furthermore, the tOSU/PSU game is still very likely to get Gameday because as of the current rankings the only other game between ranked teams is Baylor/Texas and both of those teams are ranked lower than Penn State. There is, of course, a possibility that tOSU/PSU could lose Gameday to Baylor/Texas but I would guess probably only if Baylor beats Oklahoma and Texas beats Iowa State and even then I think the tOSU/PSU game would feature higher ranked teams. In addition to all of that, whether or not Ohio State gets to host Gameday on 11/23 isn't THAT big of a deal to me anyway.
No, I don't like losses to Illinois. Wisconsin's loss to Illinois gives me pause, but the Badgers also:
- Ran the Wolverines off the field in a 35-14 romp that wasn't even as close as the score makes it look, and
- Beat Michigan State more soundly than any other team this year including Ohio State, and
- Beat Iowa (albeit by one score and at home)
So yes, the Illinois loss is an issue, but Wisconsin has other results on their resume that offset that issue.
The tricky part about ranking Minnesota is that there isn't a whole lot on their resume because they have played a remarkably easy schedule so far.
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I agree with the first paragraph which is pretty much what I said above. It is tricky to rank Minnesota because they haven't played a very good schedule which makes it hard to rank them. That is undoubtedly why, as I pointed out above, their ranking has the highest standard deviation in the whole conference. The vote distribution is also interesting, Minnesota's votes:
- They have one vote for #1, yours.
- The majority (10 of 16) voted them #2.
- Nobody voted them #3.
- Nobody voted them #4.
- Four of us (including me) voted them #5.
- Nobody voted them #6
- Nobody voted them #7.
- One person voted them #8.
I've been doing this compilation for a long time and it is fairly unusual for teams to have voids between groups of votes. Voids between the group and an outlier (like Minnesota's void between #5 and #8 aren't terribly unusual. However, if you throw out the outliers (as I do when I drop the high and low) you are still left with 10 votes for #2 then a two spot void (no votes for #3 or #4), then four votes for #5.
That happens because, as you said, it is tricky. We are all making assumptions. You and, to a lesser extent, the 10 people who voted the Gophers #2 have implicitly assumed that Minnesota has put their early season struggles completely behind them and they are now the best or second best team in the league. The Loon who voted them #8 and, to a lesser extent, the four of us (including me) who voted them #5 have implicitly assumed that those too-close early season games aren't necessarily completely behind the Gophers and that they are vulnerable and could or would lose at a neutral site to the rest of the teams in that group (PSU, UW, M, and IA). First, this entire paragraph is just completely unnecessary. You agreed that ranking Minnesota at this point is tricky, why make a personal attack over it?
Second, I could care less whether or not Ohio State's game with Penn State is a showdown of unbeatens. At this point Ohio State is #2 in all three rankings while Penn State is #9, #9, and #11. It is still a big game and in two out of three polls it is still a top-10 matchup. Furthermore, the tOSU/PSU game is still very likely to get Gameday because as of the current rankings the only other game between ranked teams is Baylor/Texas and both of those teams are ranked lower than Penn State. There is, of course, a possibility that tOSU/PSU could lose Gameday to Baylor/Texas but I would guess probably only if Baylor beats Oklahoma and Texas beats Iowa State and even then I think the tOSU/PSU game would feature higher ranked teams. In addition to all of that, whether or not Ohio State gets to host Gameday on 11/23 isn't THAT big of a deal to me anyway.
No, I don't like losses to Illinois. Wisconsin's loss to Illinois gives me pause, but the Badgers also:
- Ran the Wolverines off the field in a 35-14 romp that wasn't even as close as the score makes it look, and
- Beat Michigan State more soundly than any other team this year including Ohio State, and
- Beat Iowa (albeit by one score and at home)
So yes, the Illinois loss is an issue, but Wisconsin has other results on their resume that offset that issue.
The tricky part about ranking Minnesota is that there isn't a whole lot on their resume because they have played a remarkably easy schedule so far.
You DO realize that the first post about any of this was your complaint that I didn't have OSU as #1. Then you went on to place Minnesota as #5....behind a team they just beat.
Does any of this strike a bell?