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Topic: B1G Basketball Program Pecking Order
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TyphonInc · « **Reply #14 on:** February 19, 2021, 09:50:52 AM »

According to the data Medina provided, I would place OSU in 3rd as well. But, his 5 data points skew heavily towards good performance in the NCAA tournament. OSU with 10 final 4's is gonna look real good in 4 of his metrics.

If I'm placing BB teams in a B1G tier, I would go Indiana, MSU, Purdue, OSU, TTUN.
Giving Purdue the bid because of conference titles, Keady, and Mackey Arena.

If I'm doing a national tier, OSU gets that 3rd spot because of all those Final Fours, and unfairly because of football. Everyone knows the Football Bucks, and the Basket ball bucks are in the tournament so much they get recognized a lot.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #15 on:** February 19, 2021, 11:03:17 AM »

Quote from: TyphonInc on February 19, 2021, 09:50:52 AM

According to the data Medina provided, I would place OSU in 3rd as well. But, his 5 data points skew heavily towards good performance in the NCAA tournament. OSU with 10 final 4's is gonna look real good in 4 of his metrics.

It is true that 10 F4's automatically HAVE to have come with:

10 S16's
10 NCAA Appearances

That is three of my metrics. I looked at:

League titles
NCAA Appearances
S16's
F4's
NC's

FWIW, the 14 teams currently in the B1G have a grand combined total of 296 NCAA Appearances and:

135 S16's so 45.6% of the appearances resulted in S16's
52 F4's so 17.6% of appearances and 38.5% of S16's resulted in F4's

Obviously appearances, S16's, F4's, and NC's are related but IMHO, they are distinct. Less than half of our collective appearances have resulted in a S16 while less than one in five appearances and only about one in three S16's have resulted in an F4.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #16 on:** February 19, 2021, 11:42:46 AM »

Quote from: Abba on February 18, 2021, 10:49:22 PM

How does Beilein not pop into your mind when thinking of UM hoops? I know recruiting is part of the deal, but he got the most out of the guys he did recruit. They were deadly in March too. I would put him up there with the best coaches I've watched in the Big Ten.

Tenure. He was there 12 years, which is great, but not an astounding length. And he didn't retire there.

Agree that he's a phenomenal coach, one of the best I've seen in the B1G.

I view Keady as synonymous with Purdue basketball (Painter getting there, but it'll be another decade IMHO), Knight as synonymous with IU hoops, Heathcote/Izzo as synonymous with MSU basketball. The same way that Boeheim was with Syracuse, K with Duke, Williams with UNC, etc. Wooden with UCLA.

Bo and Woody were that for UM/OSU football. I don't think Beilein/Matta were the same level for UM/OSU hoops, despite the fact that I have the utmost respect for them as coaches.

Beilein pops into my head due to recency, but in 20 years will I consider him synonymous with UM basketball the way I do with Keady/Knight/Wooden/Bo/Woody who have all moved on? I doubt it.

He's phenomenal, but he's not legendary.

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 19, 2021, 09:40:43 AM

Seems Alphabeta is looking at this through the lens of "helmetiness" while Medina is ranking their actual historical accomplishments.

Yes, to an extent.

Let me ask it this way... Let's say that Purdue in the next 3 years wins an NC. I honestly think that with the talented youth, and the incoming recruits next year, Purdue is going to be a juggernaut.

Would one FF culminating in a NC tip the scales where all the rest of that "helmetiness" would push them ahead of UM/OSU on Medina's list?

Do we agree that Purdue has a higher level of "helmetiness" than the other two, but they've unfortunately just not put it together in March quite as well, and that is the only area they're lagging?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #17 on:** February 19, 2021, 12:19:50 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 11:42:46 AM

Let me ask it this way... Let's say that Purdue in the next 3 years wins an NC. I honestly think that with the talented youth, and the incoming recruits next year, Purdue is going to be a juggernaut.

Would one FF culminating in a NC tip the scales where all the rest of that "helmetiness" would push them ahead of UM/OSU on Medina's list?

I'm assuming, for purposes of this answer that neither Michigan nor tOSU win an NC in that stretch:

My answer is definitely yes wrt Michigan. With an NC, the Boilermakers would (on my five metrics):

Be significantly ahead on league titles - It is 24-14 PU now so the lead would be large even if M won the next three.
Be significantly ahead in NCAA Appearances - It is 30-25 PU now and I'm assuming here that PU makes the next three so that lead remains or grows.
Be tied in NC's. It is 1-0 M now so with this hypothetical PU NC, it is tied.
Be significantly behind in F4's. It is 6-2 M now so even if PU made the next three and M made none it would still be 6-5 M.
Be behind in S16's. It is 15-12 M now so it could be no better than tied in three years and that assumes PU makes three straight while Michigan makes none.

So vis-a-vis Michigan the Boilermakers would have two big leads, a tie, a big deficit, and a small deficit or tie. That is enough that I would put PU ahead.

Same comparison wrt Ohio State. With an NC the Boilermakers would (on my five metrics):

Be ahead possibly significantly in league titles. It is 24-20 PU now so in three years it could be anywhere from 26-20 PU to 24-23 PU.
Be ahead on NCAA Appearances. It is 30-29 PU now so even if PU makes the next three straight it still might just move to 33-32.
Be close or tied on S16's. It is 14-12 tOSU now so even if PU made three straight and tOSU made none it would only be 15-14 PU.
Be significantly behind on F4's. It is 10-2 tOSU now so even if PU made the next three straight and tOSU made none it would still be 10-5 tOSU.
Be tied in NC's.

So vis-a-vis tOSU I see one tie (NC's), two really close (Appearances and S16's), one lead possibly significant (league titles) and one big deficit (F4's). That is close enough that, IMHO, it would come down to how well PU did in their other two seasons and how well tOSU did in their three seasons. Ie, if PU made three F4's while tOSU flamed out early this year and missed the tournament the next two then I would definitely move PU ahead of tOSU. OTOH, if tOSU made three F4's while PU had the one NC but didn't even make the S16 the other two years, I'd still have tOSU ahead.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #18 on:** February 19, 2021, 12:20:25 PM »

OT, what is with the new name?

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #19 on:** February 19, 2021, 12:31:56 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on February 19, 2021, 12:20:25 PM

OT, what is with the new name?

Removed my last name from my screen name to make it less identifiable for google search purposes.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #20 on:** February 19, 2021, 12:41:30 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 12:31:56 PM

Removed my last name from my screen name to make it less identifiable for google search purposes.

Makes sense, just curious, thank you.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #21 on:** February 19, 2021, 03:40:36 PM »

Wisconsin even being arguably ahead of Illinois is wild.

Mostly because that gap was insanely wide early in my fandom of the badgers

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #22 on:** February 19, 2021, 04:36:46 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on February 19, 2021, 03:40:36 PM

Wisconsin even being arguably ahead of Illinois is wild.

Mostly because that gap was insanely wide early in my fandom of the badgers

A 19 year streak of NCAA Tournament appearances (UW from 1999-2017) will erase a whole lot of nearly any team's prior lead.

I think if you compiled this list circa 1998 before MSU's current 22 Tournament streak of appearances and UW's 19 Tournament streak started, the Illini might have been #2 or #3.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #23 on:** February 19, 2021, 04:47:08 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on February 19, 2021, 04:36:46 PM

A 19 year streak of NCAA Tournament appearances (UW from 1999-2017) will erase a whole lot of nearly any team's prior lead.

I think if you compiled this list circa 1998 before MSU's current 22 Tournament streak of appearances and UW's 19 Tournament streak started, the Illini might have been #2 or #3.

There's always recency bias too. The long tenure of Bo Ryan and the pretty seamless [so far] handover to Greg Gard makes the program look incredibly stable and successful, and sometimes you then tend to discount older results. When you see Wisconsin today, you look back and wonder "how did they go nearly 50 years without an NCAA tournament appearance?", but they literally did have a nearly 50 year walk through the wilderness.

Somewhat like Wisconsin's football program. I can't remember a time when they weren't offensive lines full of 330 lb bulldozers and running backs who routinely eclipsed 200 yard games... Yet before King Barry, they were terrible.

In fact, the reason that I personally put Purdue where I do is that they have long-term history coupled with modern stability, even if it hasn't always turned into March success. You look at 40 straight years of Gene Keady and Matt Painter, when Purdue was nearly ALWAYS in the thick of the conference race, and you think that must have been the case historically. The difference is... It was. Purdue has the early year history that matches the modern stability. They just don't have the March accolades that some other programs do.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #24 on:** February 19, 2021, 04:50:53 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 12:31:56 PM

Removed my last name from my screen name to make it less identifiable for google search purposes.

Afraid someone might find out that you are a Purdue fan?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #25 on:** February 19, 2021, 06:01:25 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 19, 2021, 04:47:08 PM

There's always recency bias too. The long tenure of Bo Ryan and the pretty seamless [so far] handover to Greg Gard makes the program look incredibly stable and successful, and sometimes you then tend to discount older results. When you see Wisconsin today, you look back and wonder "how did they go nearly 50 years without an NCAA tournament appearance?", but they literally did have a nearly 50 year walk through the wilderness.

The incredible success of Pat Richter almost cannot be overstated. He took over as AD in Madison in 1989. At that time the football team hadn't won a league title since 1962 and the basketball team hadn't since 1947. Their football and basketball programs were bottom feeders and hadn't been consistently good in about 80 years.

Football:

They won five conference titles in 17 years from 1896-1912.
They won three conference titles in 80 years from 1913-1992.
They have won six conference titles in 28 years from 1993-2020.

Basketball:

They won 11 conference titles in 23 years from 1907-1929.
They won three conference titles in 73 years from 1930-2001.
They have won five conference titles in 19 years from 2002-2020.

That mostly overlapping period of football (1913-1992) and basketball (1930-2001) futility was totally flipped on it's head by Pat Richter's hires. That is VASTLY more impressive to me than hiring a successful football coach at Ohio State or a successful basketball coach at Indiana. He managed to do it at a place where the only people old enough to have even a vague recollection of success where octogenarians.

TyphonInc · « **Reply #26 on:** February 20, 2021, 08:25:11 AM »

If we add another metric to Mediana's data, "Overall Wins": Indiana and Purdue set the bar higher than OSU or TTUN as well.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/schools.html

Rk  School  W    L    NCAA  FF  NC  
1 Indiana  1865 1074    39  8  5
2 Purdue   1850 1042    31  2  0 
3 Illinois 1824 1029    30  5  0
4 Ohio St. 1710 1096    33 11  1
5 Iowa     1683 1180    26  3  0
6 Minn.    1668 1227    14  1  0
7 Michigan 1650 1052    29  8  1

And in a shocker to me; I was looking for data to back up how impressive Mackey is, but looking at "Home Wins %" Purdue actually fell a little short to some other Arenas, but kudos for longevity.
http://rpiratings.com/homecourtrec.php

Rank Team          Arena                Yrs    W    L      Pct.  
6 Michigan St.   Breslin Events Ct.    29   390    59    .8686
10 Wisconsin      Kohl Center          21   285    48    .8559
17 Ohio St.       Value City Arena     20   304    57    .8421
21 Indiana        Assembly Hall        47   576   115    .8336
24 Maryland       Comcast Center       16   233    50    .8233
27 Purdue         Mackey Arena         51   622   136    .8206
42 Michigan       Crisler Center       51   622   164    .7913

I'm still in the boat that from a "conference lens" It goes IU, MSU, PU, OSU, TTUN; because of conference titles, overall win %, legendary coaches, and arena (even though the data I used for arena takes a bit of the shine off of Mackey. I mean only winning 82% of your games at home for over 50 years...)

From a National Lens it goes IU, MSU, OSU, TTUN, PU, mainly because of Purdue's flaming out on the National Stage (NCAA Tournament.)

TyphonInc · « **Reply #27 on:** February 20, 2021, 08:48:36 AM »

To change direction a bit I think this is the same perception issue that Wisconsin faces in Football. For the last 20+ years they have been the 2nd best team in the conference. From a conference perspective it goes OSU, Wisconsin, everyone else. But Wisconsin hasn't won on the biggest stages, so from a national Helmet ranking it goes OSU, UM, Neb, PSU, everyone else.

Purdue is clearly to me the 3rd highest team; but has fallen short on the national stage, allowing for a discussion to have OSU, and TTUN with national titles to be in the conversation.

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Topic: B1G Basketball Program Pecking Order

TyphonInc

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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bayareabadger

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medinabuckeye1

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Brutus Buckeye

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medinabuckeye1

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TyphonInc

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TyphonInc

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