One method of projecting win totals for the entire season is to assign a probability for a win for each game. Home field advantage can be part of the weighing process. It does make you think about each opponent on the schedule. Here is Iowa's breakdown.
Northern Illinois 80%
Iowa State 60%
Northern Iowa 95%
Wisconsin 45%
@ Minnesota 65%
@ Indiana 65%
Maryland (HC) 60%
@ Penn State 40%
@ Purdue 55%
Northwestern 55%
@ Illinois 80%
Nebraska 55%
I have Iowa favored to win 10 games. Using this method Iowa wins 7.55 games when I add the percentages. Most times Iowa is favored, they are not heavy favorites.
