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Topic: B1G 2018 O/U

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ALA2262

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2018, 09:20:41 AM »
9. Michigan State

Previous Way-Too-Early rank: 9
2017 record: 10-3, 7-2 Big Ten
Returning starters: 10 offense, nine defense, two special teams

Key losses: C Brian Allen, DE Demetrius Cooper, LB Chris Frey
Outlook: After winning at least 10 games for the sixth time in the past eight seasons, the Spartans' 3-9 disaster in 2016 seems like a distant memory. With 19 starters coming back in 2018, Michigan State might be poised to challenge Ohio State in the Big Ten East.
Brian Lewerke was dramatically better in 2017, becoming the first MSU quarterback to pass for more than 2,500 yards and run for more than 500. Tailback LJ Scott is also coming back, along with breakout receiver Felton Davis III.
Cooper and Frey are the only starters leaving from a defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally in run defense and total defense. MSU coach Mark Dantonio will have to replace two of his defensive assistants as co-coordinator/defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett and defensive ends/special-teams coordinator Mark Snyder left for Florida State.
Another reason for optimism: MSU gets to play both Michigan and Ohio State at home in 2018.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22111038/clemson-tigers-overtake-alabama-crimson-tide-no-1-way-too-early-2018-top-25





ELA

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2018, 09:53:32 AM »
My issue isn't so much with the placement of MSU, as in comparison to the schedule.  Are there 4 losses on that schedule?  Sure.  But MSU would have to lose every losable game to get there.  Granted we said the same thing about Michigan last year, that they might be underdogs in 3 games, but hwat's the chance of them going 0-3?  Well they did, and lost one we hadn't counted on.  But on paper, for MSU to go 8-4, they have to do the same thing, go winless in their toss up games, and lose an additional one we don't project.

I will add, MSU is less equipped to handle injuries than probably any other projected top 10-15 team.  They stayed insanely healthy last year, and it covered up their depths issues.  That generally doesn't happen in back to back years.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2018, 10:19:52 AM »
I guess the smart money would be on OSU losing more than one game. 

They play PSU on the road and TCU in Dallas. 

They always get everyone's best shot. Sparty and Purdue are both on the road, and those games generally go down to the wire. Indiana has played out of their minds against OSU ever since Urban showed up. 

Then there's always the Michigan game of course, but if you are betting on that one then you haven't paid much attention this Millennium.

On the flip side, they'd have anywhere from one to three post season games to possibly pad their win total with. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2018, 10:42:22 AM »
It's hard to know what Maryland should expect this season after last year's weirdness.  But most Maryland fans see >4.5 wins on the schedule.  I think 6 - 6 is a reasonable expectation.  I'm not counting Texas among the wins, but based on last year, that one (a home game this season) is winnable.  It's the first game, how many QBs could possibly go down before then?

This is supposedly the year that Durkin's high-rated recruiting classes start seeing the field.  We'll find out if it's merely hype or not...

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2018, 11:21:23 AM »
I have you in the CFP. Safe to say it will take more than 8 wins to get there. You return NINETEEN starters. Plus the PK and P. 92% of your Off production. 91 % of your Def production. From a team that won 9 regular season games playing tOSU and Michigan on the road. You have them at home and they set your O/U at 8.5!? Insane!

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/1/31/16950222/2018-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience
:c029:

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2018, 11:39:49 AM »
On the flip side, they'd have anywhere from one to three post season games to possibly pad their win total with.
Those postseason games would not count in this because it is an O/U for regular season wins.  
That makes the 10.5 just feel too high to me.  If you bet the over you are betting that the Buckeyes will not lose more than once in their 12 regular season games.  It could happen, but betting on it does not seem wise to me.  
Road and quasi-road games:
  • At Michigan State, Nov 10:  See post above about MSU's 19 returning starters.  The Buckeyes haven't lost in East Lansing in almost 20 years (1999) but all streaks come to an end this one will too.  
  • At Penn State, Sep 29:  Trips to State College are not easy.  Additionally there is a rivalry imbalance issue here for the Buckeyes.  Penn State sees Ohio State as their chief rival while that distinction for the Buckeyes is obviously Michigan.  Three of the last four games were decided by one score or less.  
  • Vs TCU at JerryWorld, Sep 15:  This is effectively a road game and breaking in new starters on the road against a quality opponent early in the season can be rough.  
  • At Maryland, Nov 17:  This game is in between probably the toughest of the year (@MSU) and the big rivalry game against Michigan.  I'm pretty sure that is the dictionary definition of a "trap game".  
  • At Purdue, Oct 20:  The Buckeyes have lost more unexpectedly in West Lafayette within the past decade or so.  

Home games:
  • Vs Michigan, Nov 24:  Even if Michigan were not the best team visiting Columbus this year a lot of Buckeye fans would list this as #1 but in this case there really isn't any argument.  This is the toughest home game.  The Buckeyes have won six straight and 13 of 14 against the Wolverines but lately things have been closer.  
  • Vs Nebraska, Nov 3:  Even if the Scott Frost era does not start as well as @FearlessF would like this game could still be dangerous coming right before a road trip to East Lansing.  Other than that, it is hard to judge the difficulty of this game due to Nebraska's recent coaching change.  
  • Vs Indiana, Oct 6:  For some reason the Hoosiers have proven to be unexpectedly difficult for the Buckeyes to defeat lately.  Granted, they haven't actually beaten the Buckeyes in 30 years and Ohio State owns a 23 game winning streak but the Hoosiers have gotten a lot closer the past few years than the records of the two teams would suggest.  In addition the Buckeyes will come into this game off of a tough and physical road trip to Happy Valley.  
  • Vs Minnesota, Oct 13:  Not much to say here.  
  • Vs Oregon State, Sep 1:  I just can't see the Beavers being a serious challenge.  
  • Vs Rutgers, Sep 8:  In their four games against Ohio State the Scarlet Knights have never scored more than 17 nor given up fewer than 49.  One or both of those things could change this year but it will not be enough.  
  • Vs Tulane, Sep 22:  Outside of the possibility of looking ahead to PSU there really is no reason for concern here.  

TyphonInc

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2018, 11:44:15 AM »
Maryland is in a tough spot. They could be a legitmate top 25 team and still end up in 5th place in the East.

Texas has a lot of talent, and year 2 of Herman should show a lot of improvement, winning those close gams they didn't win last year (a la Maryland.)

BG, Temple, Minnesota, Rutgers, Illinois I would guess are the only games Maryland is favored in this year. Is the 6th win you are seeing the @Indiana game? It's winnable but I don't think the Terps will be favored. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2018, 04:37:39 PM »
Maryland is in a tough spot. They could be a legitmate top 25 team and still end up in 5th place in the East.

Texas has a lot of talent, and year 2 of Herman should show a lot of improvement, winning those close gams they didn't win last year (a la Maryland.)

BG, Temple, Minnesota, Rutgers, Illinois I would guess are the only games Maryland is favored in this year. Is the 6th win you are seeing the @Indiana game? It's winnable but I don't think the Terps will be favored.
IMHO, Maryland is in a tough spot because their toss-up games are mostly on the road.  I've made this case before but one of the things that is often overlooked in considering HFA is that you want it for toss-up games.  Thus, if you expect your team to be a contender for the Division Championship then you want the other contenders at home.  Conversely, if you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you might as well play the contenders on the road because you are going to lose anyway.  If you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you want your weaker opponents at home where you might be able to beat them.  
Breaking Maryland's opponents into three categories:
Category #1, difficult opponents that Maryland would be unlikely to defeat regardless of location:
  • Vs Texas, Sep 1.  
  • At Michigan, Oct 6.  
  • Vs MSU, Nov 3.  
  • Vs tOSU, Nov 17.  
  • Vs PSU, Nov 24.  
Category #2, Games that could go either way:
  • Vs Minny, Sep 22.  
  • At Iowa, Oct 20.  
  • At Indiana, Nov 10.  
Category #3, Games that Maryland should win regardless of location:
  • At BGSU, Sep 8.  
  • Vs Temple, Sep 15.  
  • Vs Rutgers, Oct 13.  
  • Vs Illinois, Oct 27.  

I think you have a good point.  Even if Maryland has the quality of a lower-echelon top-25 team, they are still likely to lose all five games in category #1.  Even if they won the other seven (which would be impressive) they would still only finish 7-5/5-4 and, as you stated, likely 5th place in the East.  

The Terps have very little margin for error.  Winning any of the category #1 games would require an unlikely upset.  If they can't pull that off then they'll only be able to lose one more and still go bowling.  I would submit that the most likely path to six wins is:
  • Win the four category #3 games, and
  • beat Minnesota at home, and
  • split the road games at Iowa and Indiana.  

bwarbiany

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2018, 09:17:58 PM »
IMHO, Maryland is in a tough spot because their toss-up games are mostly on the road.  I've made this case before but one of the things that is often overlooked in considering HFA is that you want it for toss-up games.  Thus, if you expect your team to be a contender for the Division Championship then you want the other contenders at home.  Conversely, if you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you might as well play the contenders on the road because you are going to lose anyway.  If you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you want your weaker opponents at home where you might be able to beat them.  

Agreed. Same problem Purdue is in.
B1G Home: Northwestern, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin
B1G Away: Nebraska, Illinois, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana
Obviously problem #1 is 5 away conference games.
But beyond that, OSU and Wisconsin are likely losses no matter where you play them. Northwestern and Iowa are possible toss-ups at home, where I think Northwestern is better than a coin flip at home, and Iowa is worse than a coin flip, even at home.
MSU is a loss at home, but definitely a loss on the road.
But Nebraska in a rebuilding year, a flailing Illinois, a Minnesota that's not rowing as fast as they might be capable, and an Indiana that is breaking in a new coach, is a slate that might be 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road. 
Add to that, our three OOC games--all at home--includes two P5 teams. So while those P5 teams aren't particularly scary, it's a lot more dangerous than two home games against the MAC and only one middling-to-bad P5 team at home.
That's why I say an O/U of 5 for Purdue is perfectly reasonable. Against a slate where the home and away were swapped, it might be an O/U of 6 or 7. But against this schedule, 5 makes sense.

ELA

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2018, 08:08:32 AM »
MSU is a loss at home, but definitely a loss on the road.
Purdue has given MSU all kinds of trouble recently.  Last 5 meetings
2015 - #2 MSU squeaked by a Purdue (2-10), 24-21 after jumping out to a 24-0 halftime lead.  Purdue had the ball at midfield late in the game, but couldn't get into FG range
2014 - #8 MSU won at Purdue (3-9) 45-31, but only because Purdue threw a pick 6 in the final minute.  Boilers had the ball with a chance to tie
2013 - Eventual Big Ten champs MSU beat Purdue (1-11) 14-0, getting their first offensive points with 8 minutes left to open up what had been only a 7-0 lead, thanks to a fumble TD
2011 - #11 MSU beat Purdue (3-9) 35-31 at home, with a 22-3 4th quarter, after trailing 28-13 after 3
2009 - MSU won 40-37 at Purdue with a 17-3 run to close, after trailing 34-23 early in the 4th
So while MSU has won 7 in a row in the series, the last 5 have been nailbiters, and MSU was substantially better in 4 of those.  Purdue always makes me nervous

bwarbiany

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2018, 12:23:48 PM »
So while MSU has won 7 in a row in the series, the last 5 have been nailbiters, and MSU was substantially better in 4 of those.  Purdue always makes me nervous
Well, I'll say this. With Brohm, I think Purdue can have the sort of explosiveness needed to steal a game or even two that they have no business winning. 
I say that the O/U of 5 wins is reasonable, in the sense that I don't think Purdue will have any reasonable expectation to win some of the games on their schedule, MSU included. But if they manage to take one from MSU or OSU [who they've had a tendency to upset in the past when they have no business doing so], I'll be surprised but not as shocked as you might think.
But not Wisconsin. Wisconsin has had Purdue's number for a decade and a half now. The next time Purdue beats Wisconsin--if it ever happens again--will shock me.

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2018, 12:56:49 PM »
IMHO, Maryland is in a tough spot because their toss-up games are mostly on the road.  I've made this case before but one of the things that is often overlooked in considering HFA is that you want it for toss-up games.  Thus, if you expect your team to be a contender for the Division Championship then you want the other contenders at home.  Conversely, if you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you might as well play the contenders on the road because you are going to lose anyway.  If you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you want your weaker opponents at home where you might be able to beat them.  
Breaking Maryland's opponents into three categories:
Category #1, difficult opponents that Maryland would be unlikely to defeat regardless of location:
  • Vs Texas, Sep 1.  
  • At Michigan, Oct 6.  
  • Vs MSU, Nov 3.  
  • Vs tOSU, Nov 17.  
  • Vs PSU, Nov 24.  
Category #2, Games that could go either way:
  • Vs Minny, Sep 22.  
  • At Iowa, Oct 20.  
  • At Indiana, Nov 10.  
Category #3, Games that Maryland should win regardless of location:
  • At BGSU, Sep 8.  
  • Vs Temple, Sep 15.  
  • Vs Rutgers, Oct 13.  
  • Vs Illinois, Oct 27.  

I think you have a good point.  Even if Maryland has the quality of a lower-echelon top-25 team, they are still likely to lose all five games in category #1.  Even if they won the other seven (which would be impressive) they would still only finish 7-5/5-4 and, as you stated, likely 5th place in the East.  

The Terps have very little margin for error.  Winning any of the category #1 games would require an unlikely upset.  If they can't pull that off then they'll only be able to lose one more and still go bowling.  I would submit that the most likely path to six wins is:
  • Win the four category #3 games, and
  • beat Minnesota at home, and
  • split the road games at Iowa and Indiana.  
Yeah, your assessment seems similar to mine, except I put Texas in category 2.  But just between you and me, I think this year's team will look more like the one that won by 10 at Texas last year than they did for the rest of the season, when they had to use a quarterback who was on his way to Buffalo when he got a last minute call from College Park.  
 

mcwterps1

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2018, 11:19:30 AM »
You guys fail to mention the officiating so I see 4 wins, maybe 3.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G 2018 O/U
« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2018, 11:35:57 AM »
Yeah, your assessment seems similar to mine, except I put Texas in category 2.  But just between you and me, I think this year's team will look more like the one that won by 10 at Texas last year than they did for the rest of the season, when they had to use a quarterback who was on his way to Buffalo when he got a last minute call from College Park.  
I do think that Maryland should be significantly improved just based on the fact that it is unlikely that they'll have that many injuries again if nothing else.  Putting Texas in category #1 wasn't a commentary on Maryland so much as it was a commentary on Texas.  I expect them to be vastly improved.  Maryland gets them early so that might help but I think it is also partially offset by having beaten them last year.  We'll see in a few months.  

 

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