IMHO, Maryland is in a tough spot because their toss-up games are mostly on the road. I've made this case before but one of the things that is often overlooked in considering HFA is that you want it for toss-up games. Thus, if you expect your team to be a contender for the Division Championship then you want the other contenders at home. Conversely, if you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you might as well play the contenders on the road because you are going to lose anyway. If you expect your team to struggle for bowl eligibility then you want your weaker opponents at home where you might be able to beat them.
Agreed. Same problem Purdue is in.
B1G Home: Northwestern, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin
B1G Away: Nebraska, Illinois, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana
Obviously problem #1 is 5 away conference games.
But beyond that, OSU and Wisconsin are likely losses no matter where you play them. Northwestern and Iowa are possible toss-ups at home, where I think Northwestern is better than a coin flip at home, and Iowa is worse than a coin flip, even at home.
MSU is a loss at home, but definitely a loss on the road.
But Nebraska in a rebuilding year, a flailing Illinois, a Minnesota that's not rowing as fast as they might be capable, and an Indiana that is breaking in a new coach, is a slate that might be 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road.
Add to that, our three OOC games--all at home--includes two P5 teams. So while those P5 teams aren't particularly scary, it's a lot more dangerous than two home games against the MAC and only one middling-to-bad P5 team at home.
That's why I say an O/U of 5 for Purdue is perfectly reasonable. Against a slate where the home and away were swapped, it might be an O/U of 6 or 7. But against this schedule, 5 makes sense.