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Topic: #3 Michigan (7-0, 10-0) at #11 Penn State (5-2, 8-2) Post Game

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Temp430

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#3 Michigan (7-0, 10-0) at #11 Penn State (5-2, 8-2) Post Game
« on: November 05, 2023, 12:37:06 PM »
The game is on Fox at Noon.  Michigan opens as a 7 point favorite.  Finally, Michigan plays somebody.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2023, 03:22:29 PM by ELA »
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LittlePig

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2023, 12:42:21 PM »
This is PSU's last chance to get back in the Big Ten race.  If PSU loses,  they all but eliminated from playing in the CCG. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2023, 12:46:13 PM »
Penn State "should" have a punchers chance at home, but Franklin's gonna Franklin. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2023, 01:25:02 PM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 05, 2023, 12:42:21 PM
This is PSU's last chance to get back in the Big Ten race.  If PSU loses,  they all but eliminated from playing in the CCG.
As I explained in the CG races thread, there is no "all but" about it:

If Penn State loses, they are mathematically eliminated from the CG . . . With two more games to play.
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Temp430

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2023, 07:05:47 AM »
Bet lines for this game are now -4.5 points for Michigan.  
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Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2023, 07:36:02 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 05, 2023, 12:46:13 PM
Penn State "should" have a punchers chance at home, but Franklin's gonna Franklin.
this is basically where I'm at. 

Penn State has an excellent defense and the game is at home, but Franklin might be the worst big game coach in the sport.
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Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2023, 07:40:53 AM »
Quote from: Temp430 on November 06, 2023, 07:05:47 AM
Bet lines for this game are now -4.5 points for Michigan. 
Vegas knows Jeem will be suspended for life! 
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Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2023, 07:50:00 AM »
he's pretty good....pretty, pretty, pretty, gooood


https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1721235178587304377?s=20
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2023, 10:49:39 AM »
Hey cool....I'm finally gonna watch a Michigan game.  
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Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2023, 02:44:34 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2023, 10:49:39 AM
Hey cool....I'm finally gonna watch a Michigan game. 
can't lie....I LOL'd. 

honestly has not been a reason for anyone other than a Michigan fan to watch a single game all year. All been vs pretty bad teams that had no shot and got absolutely throttled.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2023, 03:43:13 PM »
fwiw, I think Michigan is gonna throttle PSU.  I'm not a believer in the Nittany Lions.  I think they have a fine defense and are a good team.  I don't think they're a top-10 quality team (emphasis on 'quality', I'm not arguing they don't belong in the top ten of this year, right now) and I don't think they're going to make it particularly close. 

I could be wrong.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2023, 05:10:11 PM »
Just shut your whore mouth
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2023, 05:25:00 PM »
Looking at tiebreakers, there is a not insignificant chance that this game is a B1GCG elimination game for both teams.  We already know that a loss here would eliminate the Nittany Lions, here is a quick review of why:

With a loss here, PSU can do no better than 7-2 and Michigan can do no worse than 7-2.  Even that requires Michigan losing to BOTH Maryland and Ohio State so it is extremely unlikely.  Even if it happened, it would require tOSU beating Michigan which would give Ohio State at least seven wins so they'd have to lose their other two to create a three-way tie atop the B1G-E at 7-2.  This scenario is EXTREMELY unlikely and it wouldn't even help PSU if it happened because tOSU would win that tie.  

What about Michigan?
A loss here would still leave plenty of mathematical chances for the Wolverines but none of them are very likely.  Given the weakness of the rest of the league, the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions will likely win all of their games against the rest of the league.  Thus, if Michigan loses in Happy Valley their best reasonably likely outcome is a 3-way tie with tOSU and PSU and Penn State is currently leading in the tiebreaker if that should come to pass.  Plus, Minnesota still has to play Ohio State which hurts both tOSU's and M's chances in the potential 3-way tie.  Also, Ohio State losing to Minnesota would actually be worse for Michigan's CG chances because if they lose to PSU they would obviously lose a 2-way tie with PSU so they would need tOSU to get to The Game unscathed.  

Consequently, I'm thinking it is more and more likely that the loser of this game (either way) doesn't have a good way to get to the CG.  
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Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2023, 07:13:00 PM »
PFF said he'd have been a top 10 pick in the 2023 Draft after his true freshman year. 

I think he'd be top 5 this year if he could come out. Especially with it being a really weak CB draft. I get the draft rules are in place for a reason, but some guys are just ready to go pro after only 1 or 2 years of college. This dude is one of them.


https://twitter.com/DraftDay365/status/1720959207644553591?s=20
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