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Topic: #3 Michigan (7-0, 10-0) at #11 Penn State (5-2, 8-2) Post Game

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MrNubbz

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2023, 12:14:12 AM »
James Franklin on #Michigan this week.

"I'm focused on all the stuff I see on film. That's what we're focused on, all the stuff that we see on film, their plays, scheme, all the stuff. When I say see on film, see on the coaches' copy of the film."
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2023, 08:52:19 AM »
James Franklin on #Michigan this week.

"I'm focused on all the stuff I see on film. That's what we're focused on, all the stuff that we see on film, their plays, scheme, all the stuff. When I say see on film, see on the coaches' copy of the film."

my god he's such a flaccid bald penis.

B1G has a TON of douchey coaches. That aren't very good. Ryan Day can talk all the crap he wants- he's an insanely good coach. Rest of these losers are bums and probably should just stfu.

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2023, 09:03:58 AM »
Parker Fleming's Advanced Stats preview has Michigan winning 22-19 and gives Michigan a 60% chance of winning. 


https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1721869724269564258?s=20

Honestbuckeye

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2023, 09:12:50 AM »
Parker Fleming's Advanced Stats preview has Michigan winning 22-19 and gives Michigan a 60% chance of winning.


https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1721869724269564258?s=20

I am going to go Michigan 24-13.  I think Penn State’s Defense will keep them in it for a half or so.  

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2023, 09:13:38 AM »
Franklin reminds me slightly of Mark Richt, maybe not intense enough for CFB, certainly different from Smart.

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2023, 09:16:27 AM »
Franklin reminds me slightly of Mark Richt, maybe not intense enough for CFB, certainly different from Smart.
Richt was a much better coach than Franklin. 

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2023, 10:19:13 AM »
CFB Nerds podcast on the game....

their computer model predicts Michigan winning 30-19 and the Nerds both pick Michigan to win, 27-17 and 27-13.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RawSGct7t9w

TyphonInc

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2023, 12:17:38 PM »
I'm rooting for an Upset here. I hope Jeem Jeem's it up more than Frankin Frankin's.

Temp430

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2023, 07:50:40 AM »
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Penn St has played Illinois, NW, and IU. The 3 worst defenses in yards per rush against in the B1G. 75th, 88th, 95th nationally. Here's how PSU did against them:<br><br>Illinois<br>Season: 4.2<br>Penn St: 4.1<br><br>Northwestern<br>Season: 4.35<br>Penn St: 3.4<br><br>Indiana<br>Season: 4.44<br>Penn St: 3.1</p>&mdash; jamie mac (@justcoverblog) <a href="
https://twitter.com/justcoverblog/status/1719003706320884176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2023, 08:42:06 AM »
both these defenses are excellent. the game will come down to the QBs imo. Which one protects the ball and which one makes the big plays when they are there to be had. Can't turn it over- and have to get a couple chunk/explosive plays to score or set up scores.

JJ is quite a bit more experienced, much more mobile and elusive, has a better OL in front of him, and better weapons at WR/TE. Roman Wilson and Colston Loveland have both really had breakout years- and both of those guys are super talented playing at a high level right now.

It'll be a hell of a game.

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2023, 09:01:17 AM »
ESPN's FPI gives Michigan a 49.1% chance of winning. Still don't understand ESPN's FPI....



Cincydawg

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2023, 09:15:37 AM »
ESPN's FPI gives Michigan a 49.1% chance of winning. Still don't understand ESPN's FPI....
I read a bit on it a while back, I think it's some computer power ranking.  I don't pay any attention to it any more.

It's facile to say "X has an 80% chance of beating Y", you can never be wrong.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2023, 12:17:42 PM »
I read a bit on it a while back, I think it's some computer power ranking.  I don't pay any attention to it any more.

It's facile to say "X has an 80% chance of beating Y", you can never be wrong.

It's a Bayesian analysis as opposed to frequentist, so maybe you can't be wrong in a one-off, but you can be wrong in the long term, and are supposed to update your model accordingly.

Cincydawg

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Re: #3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at #11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2023, 09:22:55 AM »
Whatever it is, I ignore it, as irrelevant click bait.  Maybe it's amazingly accurate.  The only pretty accurate thing I know of is the Vegas line, and of course upsets happen.

And the Vegas line is set on how they THINK bettors will bet, and then shifts as needed.  It's a great scam.

 

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