The Tournament, what to expect:
Adding up the six teams from our league that made it, we should achieve roughly this:
- 4.01 teams in the second round (.9868PU+.8553IL+.6513UW+.4803UNL+.5197*2MSU&NU)
- 1.92 teams in the S16 (.8421PU+.5263IL+.3421UW+.1053UNL+.0526*2MSU&NU)
- 1.12 teams in the E8 (.6645PU+.2566IL+.0789UW+.0592UNL+.0329*2MSU&NU)
- 0.63 teams in the F4 (.4013PU+.1118IL+.0592UW+.0395UNL+.0132*2MSU&NU)
- 0.38 teams in the CG (.25PU+.0724IL+.0263UW+.0263UNL)
- 0.19 National Champions (.1579PU+.0263IL+.0066UNL)
So far our league is matching historical performance per seed almost exactly:
- We "should" have gotten roughly 2.5 opening round wins out of PU, IL, and UW and only got 2.
- We "should" have gotten roughly 1.5 opening round wins out of UNL, MSU, and NU and we got 2.
Wisconsin's early loss balances with winning two of three 8/9 games.
Moving forward, it is mostly on Purdue. #3 seeds only make the E8 roughly at a one-in-four clip. That said, #3 seeds that DO make the S16 win at roughly a .500 clip (39-41) so . . . maybe?
#1 seeds make the E8 at roughly a two-in-three clip and #1 seeds that make the S16 are slightly better at 101-27.
Where do we go from here:
Purdue should have a geographic advantage this weekend playing Gonzaga in Detroit. If they win, they should maintain that advantage against either Creighton or Tennessee in the E8.
If Purdue makes the F4 they'll play Houston, Dook, NCST, or Marquette in the Semi-Final.
Geography shouldn't be a factor for Illinois' S16 game against Iowa State but if they win they likely get #1 overall seed UCONN in their backyard (Boston) so yeah, good luck with that.
If Illinois does manage to get to the F4 they'll face UNC, Bama, Clemson, or Arizona in the Semi-Final.