2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

In Women's hoops the Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the league title this weekend.

The Buckeyes are 15-1 while Iowa and Indiana are tied for second at 13-3. Thus, the worst-case-scenario for the Buckeyes is a tie with Iowa and/or Indiana at 15-3. Ohio State has clinched the #1 seed because they win all ties.

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State's win over MSU could end up as nothing more than a temporary stay of execution but it does keep open a possibility of Ohio State making the tournament without winning the BTT.

The Buckeyes are now 6-11/16-12 which is not enough but their three remaining games are all reasonably winnable:

• Vs Nebraska, the Cornhuskers are very good at home but not so good on the road. 
• Vs Michigan, the Wolverines are terrible but did beat the Holtmann Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. 
• At Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights looked terrible against the Terps. 

Winning out would get the Buckeyes to 9-11/19-12 heading to Minneapolis. From there one win might be enough. 

[ELA]

It's also why you should schedule aggressively.  MSU is still top 25 by every metric, even though they keep losing.  They are still an average 8 seed per Bracket Matrix.  And I guess the standard is to just keep the streak alive, because being great is clearly.no longer a concern

[MaximumSam]

It's also why you should schedule aggressively.  MSU is still top 25 by every metric, even though they keep losing.  They are still an average 8 seed per Bracket Matrix.  And I guess the standard is to just keep the streak alive, because being great is clearly.no longer a concern

Totally agree with that. I get why teams like Minnesota schedule really soft - at some point you need to get some wins. But for veteran teams play the best. Entertaining and good for making the postseason.

[bayareabadger]

Ethan Morton would get 25 mpg at MSU as a reward for being a former 4 star who didn't pan out, but also didn't transfer

This is in reference to AJ?

[ELA]

This is in reference to AJ?

Sissoko

[medinabuckeye1]

This weekend there were two upsets (UMD at RU and tOSU at MSU).  Reminder, the tiers are:

• Purdue (+1/-1), Illinois -2
• Wisconsin (+2/-3), Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan State (+1/-3)
• Minnesota (+1/-2), Iowa (+2/-2), Maryland (+3/-2), Rutgers (+1/-2)
• Penn State (+4/-1), Ohio State (+2/-1), Indiana (+2/-1)
• Michigan (+2/-1)

Upsets so far have been:

Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 16-4/27-4 Purdue
• 14-6/23-8 Illinois
• 13-7/23-8 Nebraska (wins tie with UW based on record against PU, no game in W. Lafayette)
• 13-7/21-10 Wisconsin
• 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 10-10/19-12 Minnesota
• 9-11/17-14 Maryland (first in tie with PSU and IA based on H2H2H of 3-1, won in Iowa City)
• 9-11/15-16 Penn State (second in tie with UMD and IA based on H2H2H of 2-2)
• 9-11/17-14 Iowa (last in tie with UMD and PSU based on H2H2H of 1-3, lost at home to UMD)
• 8-12/16-15 Rutgers
• 7-13/17-14 Ohio State
• 6-14/14-17 Indiana
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

If that plays out as predicted the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Ohio State vs #13 Indiana, 630

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Northwestern vs tOSU/IU, 230
• #6 Michigan State vs RU/M, 9pm
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Iowa, 630
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Penn State, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs UMD/PSU, noon
• #2 Illinois vs MN/IA 630
• #3 Nebraska vs MSU/RU/M, 9pm
• #4 Wisconsin vs NU/tOSU/IU, 230

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU vs UW/NU/tOSU/IU, 1pm
• IL/MN/IA vs UNL/MSU/RU/M, 330

Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/UMD/PSU/UW/NU/tOSU/IU vs IL/MN/IA/UNL/MSU/RU/M, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

Ending a road losing streak of what, a year and a half?

420 days I heard.

[medinabuckeye1]

Lifetime contract for Diebler

No . . .
But if he keeps this up, I think the possibility of dropping the interim tag becomes viable. 

[medinabuckeye1]

This week we have two games each on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  The only B1G teams not playing are Purdue and Michigan State who were apparently given the week to prepare for their showdown in Mackey on Saturday Night.  

Tuesday:

• Wisconsin at Indiana, 7pm Peacock:  Indiana already has 13 losses so they probably need to win out to have any chance at an at-large bid.  
• Penn State at Iowa, 9pm BTN:  Iowa's projection is 17-14/9-11 so they need an unexpected win or two to get on the right side of the bubble, they REALLY can't afford a loss here.  

Wednesday:

• Northwestern at Maryland, 7pm BTN:  Maryland is 15-13 and projects to finish 17-14 so this is a must-win for them.  
• Minnesota at Illinois, 9pm BTN:  Minnesota projects to finish 10-10/19-12 but their SoS is by far the worst in the league so that probably isn't enough.  A win in Champaign would sure help!  

Thursday:

• Nebraska at Ohio State, 630 FS1:  With recent upsets over Purdue and at MSU the Buckeyes have faint at-large hopes but this is probably a must-win for them.  
• Michigan at Rutgers, 8:30 FS1:  Rutgers (like IU and UMD) has 13 losses so this is probably a must-win for them.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Within the league:
League Title race:
Purdue is off this week but could clinch a share of the B1G Title anyway.  The Boilermakers are 14-3, Illinois is 11-5 and everyone else has at least six losses.  Thus, the ONLY way the Boilermakers would NOT win the league this year is if:

• They lose out (vsMSU, @IL, vsUW) AND
• Illinois wins out (vsMN, @UW, vsPU, @IA). 

The next Illinois' loss or Purdue win clinches a share of the title for Purdue. 

I said the Boilermakers *COULD* clinch this week but it is unlikely.  Illinois hosts Minnesota on Wednesday and will be heavily favored.  However, the Boilermakers should clinch on Saturday.  On Saturday Illinois is in Madison at 1pm and that evening Purdue hosts Michigan State at 8pm.  If Purdue gets the result they want in either of those games, they clinch a share of the league.  If Wisconsin and Purdue both win then Purdue clinches an outright title. 


Race for double-bye:
If the B1G Tournament started right now PU, IL, UW, and NU would get the double-byes.  Nebraska is only 1/2 game back while Michigan State is 1-1/2 games back.  Minnesota is two games back. 

Who will play on Wednesday:
If the B1G Tournament started right now Rutgers, Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan would play on Wednesday.  Maryland is 1/2 game above playing on Wednesday while Iowa and PSU are 1-1/2 games above it.  Minnesota is two games above playing on Wednesday. 

It is oddly symmetrical that Minnesota is something of a "middle team" being two games out of a double-bye and two games above a Wednesday start. 

[847badgerfan]

Looks like I can cancel Pee Cock on Wednesday.

[bayareabadger]

Ohio State's win over MSU could end up as nothing more than a temporary stay of execution but it does keep open a possibility of Ohio State making the tournament without winning the BTT.

The Buckeyes are now 6-11/16-12 which is not enough but their three remaining games are all reasonably winnable:

• Vs Nebraska, the Cornhuskers are very good at home but not so good on the road.
• Vs Michigan, the Wolverines are terrible but did beat the Holtmann Buckeyes in Ann Arbor.
• At Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights looked terrible against the Terps.

Winning out would get the Buckeyes to 9-11/19-12 heading to Minneapolis. From there one win might be enough.

I’d have to do a bit of study, but OSU would go to the BTT a pretty soft 19-13.

If they win out, you’re looking at 3 Q1 wins, 3 Q2, one Q3 loss. Need a lot in the conference tournament to help that.

[medinabuckeye1]

It's also why you should schedule aggressively.  MSU is still top 25 by every metric, even though they keep losing.  They are still an average 8 seed per Bracket Matrix.  And I guess the standard is to just keep the streak alive, because being great is clearly.no longer a concern

Totally agree with that. I get why teams like Minnesota schedule really soft - at some point you need to get some wins. But for veteran teams play the best. Entertaining and good for making the postseason.

I agree with both of you and I'll add a comparison to football:

In football we as fans all groan at weak schedules but from an Athletic Director position, I get it for several reasons including:
In the past @OrangeAfroMan has referred to the football rankings as "done by a fourth grader" because they tend to literally follow "number of losses" as their #1 consideration.  Therefore, scheduling a tough SoS is unlikely to help you and VERY likely to hurt you.  In Basketball there is a long history of utilizing various computer models and considering quality wins and "bad losses" so a strong SoS absolutely will help you.  Even if that strong SoS leads to additional losses, you'll at least get "credit" for the SoS.  

Secondly, unlike football where many of our schools fill up gigantic stadiums for games against complete crap opponents, the financial incentive to schedule weak inn BB is NOT the same.  Very few of our schools actually sell out their arenas for the crappy games so giving one up to get a H&H with a better opponent isn't as costly because you WILL sell more tickets for the home half of that match-up than you would for a home game against a crap opponent.